Saturday evening on the college gridiron and a pair of teams from the Mountain West Conference will square off as the San Jose State Spartans grapple with the San Diego State Aztecs. This contest has a start time of 10:30 pm ET and will take place at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California. The Spartans enter off a 52-3 home loss to Army, while the Aztecs are off a hard-fought 21-17 home win over Air Force. These teams met last year and the Aztecs won on the road by a score of 52-7.
Sparty Gets Ripped By The Black Knights
This has been another long season for the San Jose State Spartans. They enter this game at 0-6 on the year and have been outscored by 19 ppg in those games. It will not get easier for them in this one as the Aztecs crushed Sparty on the road last year by a score of 52-7. San Jose State comes in off a beatdown slightly worse than that as they fell to Army at home last week by a score of 52-3. That is not good at all. SJSU was outgained 395-171 and allowed Army to run over them like a fleet of Sherman Tanks to the tune of 341 yards. No one has stopped that Army ground attack, so San Jose shouldn’t feel that bad. They are now 93rd against the run and will be taking on a decent SDSU ground attack.
We will keep fighting. Together. Steadfast in our pursuit. 👌 pic.twitter.com/0p6kYkT3cl
— SanJoseStateFootball (@SJSUSpartanFB) October 15, 2018
Sparty will have to stop the run here or it will be a really long night as their pass defense is 121st in the nation. The Spartans are 115th in total defense and 125th in scoring defense, giving up an average of 41.3 ppg. The offense hasn’t been much better as they are 124th in total yards and 117th in scoring, putting up just 22.3 ppg. The passing game is actually solid as it ranks 42nd in the land and the Aztecs have a very average pass defense. QB Josh Love (1030 yds, eight TDs, five INTs) missed the Army game with a concussion and is questionable for this one. If he can’t go, then it will be Montel Aaron, who has thrown for 500 yards with two TDs and no INTs so far, that gets the nod. They would love to get the ground game going to take the pressure off Aaron, but you do not run on the Aztecs.
Aztecs Rally To Take Down Air Force
The San Diego State Aztecs are on a roll as they come in having won their last five games in a row, which includes a 19-13 road win over Boise State a couple of weeks ago. They followed up that win with a 21-17 home victory over Air Force in a game that was delayed by lightning. SDSU trailed the game 17-14 in the 4th but got a 29-yard TD pass from Ryan Agnew to Parker Houston with 6:10 left in the game. Their stout defense was able to hold on from there. We will discuss that defense in a moment. The Aztecs are not really known for their offense, but it has a chance at a good showing against a very bad defense. The Aztecs have been very averaged on the ground but will look to pound away at a bad Spartan run defense that allowed 341 yards to Army last week. They may have to do it without RB Chase Jasmin (381 yards), who is listed as day-to-day. State is thin at RB as they are already without leading rusher Juwan Washington, who is out till November.
— SDSU Football (@SDSUFootball) October 14, 2018
The Aztecs may need to rely on Ryan Agnew, who has hit just 50.5% of his passes for 798 yards with four TDs and four INTs. SDSU ranks 114th in total offense, 113th in passing, 60th in rushing and 18th in scoring at 21.5 ppg. Now on to the heart of this team and that is their super defense. They allowed Air Force just 274 yards of total offense in the game and while they allowed 214 yards on the ground, that was still below Air Force’s seasonal average. They will also not be facing a good ground game in this one and despite allowing 214 yards to the Falcons, the Aztec defense is still ranked 5th in the nation against the run, giving up just 87.2 ypg. Sparty will have to throw in this one if they hope to at least keep the game close. SDSU is 12th in total defense, 60th against the pass and 26th in points allowed at 19.3 ppg.
San Diego State is:
- 19-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
- 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 conference games
San Jose State:
- 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Can Sparty keep this one close? I don’t think so. The Aztecs are not a great offensive team, but they should still have a field day against this horrible San Jose State defense. On the other side of the ball, the Aztecs are a very strong defensive squad and San Jose has a pathetic offense that is 117th in the nation in scoring at 22.3 ppg. The Spartans can throw the ball and Sand Diego state is 60th against the pass, but that doesn’t scare me at all. Look for a comp[lete blowout in this one.
Prediction: San Diego State -27.5
Full-Game Total Pick
It’s risky to take the under when there is a low O/U line and a high spread, but I feel it is warranted here. The Spartans will not get more than seven points in this one. Last week they put up just three points on Army and they will be facing a better defense in this one. Jest win team will do the bulk of the scoring in this one. San Diego State wins 38-7.
Prediction: Under 48
Half-Time Side Pick
The Spartans have shown some heart at times this year, but they are outclassed in this one. they can pass the ball, but still, have a terrible offensive line and that should allow a strong San Diego State pass rush to get to them, especially early in the game. The Spartans are horrible on defense and that should allow the Aztecs to put them away early.
Prediction: San Diego State -16.5
Half-Time Total Bet
I like the Under in this game, but I can see some scoring in the first half before the Aztecs call off one the dogs in the 2nd half. Their defense is tough and I look for them to hold San Jose State to a mere three points in the first half, while their own offense puts up at last 21.
Prediction: Over 23.5