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SMU vs. Tulane,
10-20-2018 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#387 SMU
Mustangs 61
#388 Tulane
Green Wave -7

Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 3:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

SMU Mustangs

2 - 4

2-4
ATS
3-3
O/U
28
PPG
39
OPPG

Tulane Green Wave

2 - 4

3-3
ATS
2-4
O/U
24
PPG
30
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAF

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SMU and Tulane hook up for an AAC West matchup on Saturday afternoon at Yulman Stadium. The division is looking like it will be dominated by Houston, but the winner of this game will be just a step behind them. The Mustangs have won in six of their last seven meetings (3-3 ATS).

Mustangs defense has another setback against Golden Knights

SMU had a week off to reflect on their 48-20 beatdown at the hands of UCF to open up October. It continues a trend of their defensive mediocrity, where they do a fair job at stopping the passing attack but allow a whopping 39.7 points per game (124th nationally). Things have been trending in a better direction. Giving up 27 points to FCS opponent Houston Baptist seemed bad on paper, but most of that was allowed in garbage time throughout the second half — SMU had a 42-10 lead halfway through the third quarter.

Obviously, taking on a Golden Knights squad that has one of the best offenses in the country and still hasn’t lost for over two years now was too much for them to handle. They will have a chance to continue their success by taking on a far weaker opponent, even on the road.

Quarterback questions loom for the Green Wave

Tulane made some waves with their stunning upset against Memphis right after getting blown out by Ohio State, but things returned more to the norm in a 37-21 loss to Cincinnati, who has now cracked the top 25. The offense continues to be rather woeful, posting just 266 total yards against the Bearcats. They converted just 3-of-15 third-down conversions and missed on all four fourth down opportunities.

The quarterback position has been a problem. Jonathan Banks was pulled after completing just 1-of-5 passes for 2 yards. Justin McMillan made his third and longest appearance of the season, completing just 42.3 percent of his passes, registering 130 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. While inconsistent, he hasn’t thrown a pick yet this season. The Green Wave are averaging 379 yards per game overall and just 186.5 passing yards. But it’s their defense against the pass that has caused them the most issues as they allow 272.7 yards per game.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Save for the beatdown against UCF, the Mustangs seem to be trending in a better direction while the Green Wave have a lot of questions to answer with their signal caller. Maybe they’ll get a step closer to figuring it out, but there’s a good chance they can lose this one outright.

Prediction: SMU +7

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

It’s hard to recommend anything else but taking the over in this. Tulane has still posted quite a few points in their games despite dealing with some offensive issues, and there’s always a chance that the Mustangs can give up a boatload of points.

Prediction: Over 60

Brian Spaen

Blogging journeyman and sports handicapper. His passion for statistics, analyzing team reports, and watching multiple hours of sports daily gives him an edge for picking who will beat the spread. Also writes about technology and video games. Hobbies include enjoying life in the big city, spending way too much time on YouTube, and discovering new craft beer and whisky.

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