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UTSA vs. Southern Miss,
10-20-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#393 UTSA
Roadrunners 45
#394 Southern Miss
Golden Eagles -16

Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 7:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

UTSA Roadrunners

3 - 4

1-6
ATS
4-3
O/U
17
PPG
28
OPPG

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

2 - 3

3-2
ATS
1-3
O/U
26
PPG
20
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAF

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UTSA and Southern Miss, two Conference USA West opponents that are under .500, battle it out on Saturday night at M. M. Roberts Stadium. The Roadrunners saw their three-game winning streak snap last week. The Golden Eagles had a rough two-game road trip.

Roadrunners average the worst total yards in the country

Texas-San Antonio has not been good against the spread this year, only getting one win this year at Rice. They were one-point underdogs, but they ended up winning an ugly 20-3 contest. Things were even uglier back at home in their last outing against Louisiana Tech, falling 31-3. The offense just hasn’t clicked yet as they rank dead last in total yards (255.7 per game) and 127th nationally in points scored — just a meager 17.4 per contest.

You can’t just pinpoint a specific problem for the offense, it’s the whole package. Quarterback Cordale Grundy has completed just a shade over half of his passing attempts (5.12%) and has a ratio of just five touchdowns to three picks. The lead rusher, B.J. Daniels, is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry (76 attempts, 287 yards) and has three touchdowns. UTSA’s pass defense will have to be better than their average of 253.4 yards per game allowed in the air this season against Southern Miss’ strong aerial attack.

Abraham throws all over the Mean Green, but Eagles still get blown out

It was an ugly two-game skid for Southern Miss, dropping games to both Auburn and North Texas. They aren’t terrible losses, and they actually kept things relatively close against a previously-ranked SEC team, but they looked very bad against a Mean Green squad they should have been competitive against. They give up an average of just 322.6 yards per game (21st nationally), but allowed 457 yards to UNT.

Quarterback Jack Abraham at least continues to lead a potent passing attack. He was held under the norm at Auburn, which was expected, but bounced back with 318 yards on 69 percent passing with a touchdown and a pick. On the season, Abraham is tossing the rock with a ridiculous 70.5 completion percentage. As a team, the Golden Eagles are averaging a strong 417.2 yards per game and 318.6 in the yards. However, the rushing game is almost an afterthought with just 98.6 yards per contest. 

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

It’s actually a surprise to see UTSA have a 3-4 record considering how bad the offense is, but it’s because they thrive in stopping the run, holding teams to 117.7 yards per game (21st nationally). Since USM doesn’t run anyway, they should torture that defense.

Prediction: Southern Miss -17

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Truth be told, this total seems excessively low even for one side that struggles on offense. Don’t expect UTSA to be held to just a field goal again, and on the flip side, Southern Miss’ offense will be far better here than it has in recent contests.

Prediction: Over 44.5

Brian Spaen

Blogging journeyman and sports handicapper. His passion for statistics, analyzing team reports, and watching multiple hours of sports daily gives him an edge for picking who will beat the spread. Also writes about technology and video games. Hobbies include enjoying life in the big city, spending way too much time on YouTube, and discovering new craft beer and whisky.

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