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Wake Forest vs. Florida State,
10-20-2018 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#373 Wake Forest
Demon Deacons 60
#374 Florida State
Seminoles -9.5

Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 3:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

3 - 3

1-5
ATS
5-1
O/U
32
PPG
36
OPPG

Florida State Seminoles

3 - 3

2-4
ATS
4-2
O/U
22
PPG
25
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAF

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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will travel to Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday afternoon for an ACC showdown against the Florida State Seminoles.

The Seminoles are fresh off of a bye week, which should help them avoid a clunker following their collapse against the Miami Hurricanes two weeks ago.

Demon Deacons look to bounce back following 60-point defeat

Wake Forest is fresh off of another absolutely crushing defeat at home against a top-ranked Clemson team. The Demon Deacons mustered an embarrassing 74 passing yards and just 249 yards of total offense in a 63-3 loss. True freshman quarterback Sam Hartman learned a hard lesson, completing just 7 of 20 passes for 74 yards and an interception in another tough showing versus a ranked opponent. Junior quarterback/wide receiver Kendall Hinton led the team in rushing with 92 yards on 11 carries in a losing effort, while the No. 4 Tigers limited Greg Dortch to just 3 catches for 37 yards on the night.

Hartman has thrown for 1,259 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions so far this season. Half (five) of those 10 touchdowns have gone to Dortch, who leads the team with 48 catches and 592 receiving yards this year.

Wake Forest is averaging 32.3 points per game, while allowing 36.8 points per game on the defensive side of the ball. Getting stops has been a real issue for this Demon Deacons team, as opponents have managed to average over 500 yards of total offense against them, including 236.2 yards per game on the ground. Luckily, they are up against a Seminoles team that is averaging just 92.8 rush yards through six games.

Seminoles collapse as Miami pulls off record comeback vs, FSU

The Seminoles will need to find a way to put a disappointing 28-27 defeat to No. 17 Miami behind them if they are going to have a chance to beat the Demon Deacons this week. Miami pulled off its largest comeback ever against the Seminoles, rallying from 20 points down to come away with a shocking one-point win. To make matters worse, the Seminoles had a fourth-quarter touchdown off a double pass taken off the board when officials ruled that the first throw from DeAndre Francois to D.J. Matthews was forward, and negated Matthews’ throw to Keith Gavin for a score that would have put Florida State up by two touchdowns. Francois finished 15 of 30 for 129 yards passing, two touchdowns and one interception on the afternoon, as the Seminoles were held to 200 yards of total offense in defeat.

Florida State comes into this game scoring 23 points per game and averaging 344 yards of total offense through their first six contests. The Seminoles do most of their damage through the air, averaging just 92.8 rush yards per game this year. Meanwhile, opponents are averaging 25.2 points per game and 372.2 yards of total offense against the Seminoles defense this year.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Wake Forest is a tough team to get a read on this season. They have looked awful against Notre Dame and Clemson in recent weeks, but also showed some fight against a solid BC team. This Seminoles’ defense doesn’t stack up to either the Fighting Irish or the Tigers and they are fairly vulnerable through the air, allowing 271 yards per game in that department. The underdog is 9-4-1 against the spread in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, so I’m leaning towards Wake Forest covering the spread on the road in this spot.

Prediction: Pick: Wake Forest +10.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Sam Hartman bounced back from his last bad game against Notre Dame by throwing for a career-high four touchdowns versus Rice. I expect him to have another solid bounce back effort in this game against a Florida State defense that just gave up four passing touchdowns to Miami a week ago. Meanwhile, the Seminoles will be eager to get back on the field after squandering a 20-point lead in their last game. The bye should help too, so I’m leaning towards the Demon Deacons covering the spread on the road on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Over 60

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

Florida State doesn’t really have any marquee wins on their schedule. Their best win this season came on the road two weeks ago and they blew a chance at upsetting a Top-25 ranked Miami team last week. Normally, I would take the points in this spot, but the Seminoles will definitely be fired up for this game on the heels of hurricane Michael, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them start hot once again in this one. Take Florida State to cover the first half spread at home on Saturday.

Prediction: Florida State -6

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

This game should feature plenty of points, as both teams give up more points on defense than they average on the offensive side of the football. Wake Forest has struggled at times this season, especially against teams with dominant defensive line play, but this Florida State team hasn’t been able to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback this season. I expect Wake Forest to be able to move the football in this game, which should bode well for these two teams going over the projected first half total on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Over 30

Half-Time Prop Prediction
Rating:

Neither defense has really shown the ability to get stops consistently this season and Florida State has been vulnerable through the air. Opposing teams are averaging 271 passing yards per game against the Seminoles defense, who will be hard-pressed to stop Greg Dortch — one of the shiftiest receivers in the ACC. Whoever gets the ball is likely going to score first in this game, so there could be some value on taking the Demon Deacons at a +150.

Prediction: Wake Forest to score first +150

Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.

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