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South Alabama vs. Georgia State,
10-26-2017 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#105 South Alabama
Jaguars
#106 Georgia State
Panthers

Thursday, October 26, 2017 at 7:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

South Alabama Jaguars

3 - 4

4-3
ATS
1-6
O/U
24
PPG
26
OPPG

Georgia State Panthers

3 - 3

3-3
ATS
2-4
O/U
20
PPG
27
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAF

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South Alabama Jaguars (3-4 SU, 4-3-0 PS, 2-5-0 O/U) vs Georgia State Panthers (3-3 SU, 3-3-0 PS, 3-4-0 O/U)

When: 8:00 PM EDT, Thursday, October 26, 2017

Where: Georgia State Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia

Lines: South Alabama -2

Total: 48.5

College football action on Thursday evening and a pair of teams from the Sun Belt Conference will square off as the South Alabama Jaguars rumble with the Georgia State Panthers at Georgia State Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. The Jaguars come in at 2-1 in league play after beating ULM at home last week by a score of 33-23, while the  Panthers are off a 34-10 home loss to Troy, which dropped them to 2-1 in the Sun Belt. The Jags won last year’s meeting at home by a score of 13-10.

Dallas Davis Leads Jags Over Warhawks

The South Alabama Jaguars are just 3-4 on the year, but they are now 2-1 in league play after taking down the Monroe Warhawks by a score of 33-23. That was on the heels of a nice 19-8 win over Troy on the road. The Jaguars played some very good offense in the win over the Warhawks as they rolled up 549 yards of offense and they were very balanced as they ran for 232 yards and threw for 317 more. Dallas Davis had a strong outing as he hit 20 of 33 passes for 317 yards with three TDs and an INT. The Warhawks just couldn’t stop him for much of the game. For the year, he has hit 58.3% of his passes for 924 yards with seven TDs and three INTs. His favorite target in the game was Sam Harris, who had a huge game as he caught eight passes for 141 yards and a TD. The Warhawks couldn’t stop the ground game of the Jaguars either and leading the way was Xavier Johnson, who ran for 99 yards and a TD in the game. It was a strong offensive game and while they did allow just 23 points in the game, they did allow 488 yards of total offense, including 309 yards on the ground and they allowed 7.5 ypc in the process. They will not be facing a good ground game in this one, but they have struggled against the pass more this year and will face a good aerial game in this one.      

The Jaguars enter this contest ranked 108th in the nation in total offense (345.4 ypg), 85th in passing (203.9 ypg), 88th in rushing (141.6 ypg) and 94th in scoring at 24.3 ppg. On defense, they have been a bit below average as they come in ranked 85th in total yards allowed (413.3 ypg), 117th against the pass (272.7 ypg) and 41st vs the run (140.6 ypg), while allowing 26.4 ppg, which is 67th in the nation.

Panthers Can’t Figure Out Troy’s Defense

The Georgia State Panthers had a nice three-game win streak going and they averaged 34.0 ppg over that stretch, but the Troy Trojans came to town and they brought with them a much tough defense and the Panthers really struggled to score in that game as they were able to put up just 10 points on 307 yards of total offense in a 34-10 Troy win. They just couldn’t get a whole lot going against that tough Troy defense. They did have 255 yards passing, but just 62 yards on the ground and you need a bit more balance when taking on the Trojans. Conner Manning threw for 255 yards with a TD and an INT in the game, which are decent numbers, but not great and for the year he has no hit 66.5% of his passes for 1516 yards with seven TDs and five INTs. He could have a good game in this one against one of the weakest pass defenses in the nation. The Panthers need their defense to play better than it did against the Trojans as they allowed 457 yards of total offense in the game, including 355 yards passing. They will not be taking on a good offense in this one, so that will be hoping that their defense has a good showing. The Panthers have a decent team that just ran into a better team in their loss to the Trojans.    

Georgia State has not been great on offense this year as they come into this game ranked 84th in the nation in total offense (383.3 ypg), 34th in passing (269.7 ypg), 117th in rushing (114.2 ypg) and 114th in scoring at 20.3 ppg. On defense, they have been rather average as they come in ranked 79th in total yards allowed (406.0 ypg), 108th against the pass (262.0 ypg) and 48th vs the run (144.0 ypg), while allowing just 27.5 ppg, which is 75th in the nation.

Trends

South Alabama is:

  • None Available

Georgia State is:

  • 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game
  • 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game

Both of these teams are 2-1 in league play and both have played Troy in recent games, with mixed results. The Jags beat Troy 19-8, while the Panthers lost to them by a score of 34-10. A closer look shows that Troy had just come off a huge road upset against LSU when they lost to the Jags, while the Panthers lost to a Troy team that was looking to bounce back from a tough loss. Still, can the Panthers generate enough offense to win this game? They had that stretch where they scored 34 ppg in three games, but they also were held to 10 by Troy and Tennessee State from the FCS and were shutout by Penn State. I look for the Jaguars to come up with enough offense to win this game.

Pick: South Alabama -2

The Jaguars just put up 33 points on ULM and had 500+ yards of offense in the game, while the Panthers have struggled on offense this year and they just put up 10 points on Troy. That Troy defense is very tough and the Jaguar defense is not, but still, the Panthers have really struggled on offense this year, especially at home where they have scored just 10 points in each of their two games here. The Jags offense has not been great this year and they do run the ball a lot, which will eat plenty of clock. I look for this one to go Under the total, especially knowing that the Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams.

Pick: Under

Confidence: 3

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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