#20 Stanford Cardinal (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U) vs. Oregon State Beavers (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 5-2 O/U)
NCAAF: Thursday, October 26, 2017, Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Oregon, 9 pm ET
Spread: Stanford -23; Over/Under: 58.5
It’s a battle of Pac-12 North foes that are at opposite ends of the spectrum in the standings up in the Pacific Northwest. The #20 Stanford Cardinal, who are tied for first in the North, travel to face the Oregon State Beavers Thursday night. Stanford had a bye week last week: they throttled Oregon 49-7 at home in their last contest on October 14. Oregon State is also coming off a bye: they were edged 36-33 at home by Colorado in their most recent game October 14. The Cardinal holds a 55-25-3 edge in the all-time series and has won the last seven meetings, including a 26-15 home win in the last matchup on November 5, 2016.
Stanford Cardinal Seek to Maintain Position in Pac-12 North
Stanford won their fourth straight by steamrolling Oregon in their last game. The Cardinal enters this contest tied with Washington State atop the Pac-12 North standings: those two teams will meet next weekend in Pullman. Stanford jumped to a 21-7 lead after the opening quarter and then kept the Ducks off the board the rest of the way. The Cardinal held a 504-309 advantage in total offense in the contest, rolled up 25 first downs while allowing 12 and dominated the time of possession battle by a 37:17 to 22:43 margin. Stanford forced three turnovers while committing two in the contest.
The Cardinal is 92nd in the FBS in passing offense with 198 yards per game through the air and stands 15th in rushing offense with 258.7 yards per contest. Stanford is 18th in the country in scoring offense with 38.1 points per contest and is 42nd in scoring defense by allowing 22 points a night. Keller Chryst is 62 of 111 passing for 821 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. K.J. Costello (43 of 67, 492 yards, four TD, 59 rushing yards, 2 TD) and Ryan Burns (5 of 7, 57 yards, TD) are next in line if Chryst goes down. Bryce Love is the leading ground gainer for Stanford with 135 carries for 1,387 yards and 11 scores. Cameron Scarlett is next on the team with 41 carries for 217 yards plus six touchdowns. Connor Wedington is third on the team with 17 catches for 168 yards while Trenton Irwin leads the team with 23 grabs for 265 yards and a score. JJ Arcega-Whiteside contributes 19 receptions for a team high 304 yards and four scores. Jet Toner has hit all 33 extra points and 12 of 13 field goal attempts with a long of 46 yards.
Oregon State Beavers Stuck in Basement of Pac-12 North
Oregon State couldn’t come up with the clutch plays with the game on the line against Colorado. As a result, the Beavers gave up the winning score with 1:34 to play in regulation and lost their fifth straight game. Oregon State led after each of the first three quarters and held the lead late in the fourth before it slipped away. The Beavers outgained the Buffaloes 569-385, picked up 30 first downs while allowing 25 and controlled the clock by a 35:40 to 24:20 margin in the game. Oregon State committed the game’s lone turnover and their inability to make the crucial stop doomed them.
The Beavers enter this contest 80th in the FBS in passing offense with 206.1 yards per game while ranking 80th in rushing by averaging 150.4 yards a contest. Oregon State is 113th in the nation in scoring offense by putting up 21.3 points a game but ranks 128th in the FBS in scoring defense as they allow 43.7 points a game. Jake Luton has completed 83 of 135 passes for 853 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. Darell Garretson is 49 of 90 for 580 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Timmy Hernandez hit his only pass attempt for 10 yards this season. Ryan Nall leads the team with 86 carries for 513 yards and seven scores while Artavis Pierce contributes 249 yards plus a score on 48 carries. Noah Togiai is tied for the team lead with 21 grabs for 232 yards and a score while Isaiah Hodgins (20 catches, 200 yards, TD) and Jordan Villamin (21 receptions, team high 253 yards, TD) are the top receiving threats for the Beavers. Jordan Choukair has hit all 18 extra points and seven of 12 on field goals with a long of 40 yards.
- Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record
- Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games
- Beavers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf
- Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week
Oregon State blew their chances at a conference win in their last game and now has to deal with a Stanford team that is on a roll. The Cardinal bombed Oregon in their last game and Love is racking up yards by the truckload. Stanford won’t look ahead to their showdown with Washington State next week because coach David Shaw won’t let them. Expect Love to have another big game as Stanford rolls their way to a fifth straight conference win.
Pick: Stanford Cardinal -23
Stanford is on a roll as their offense has started clicking after dropping two of their first three games to start the year. The Cardinal has racked up 164 points in their last four games since that last minute defeat at the hands of San Diego State. Now they face an Oregon State defense that is third-worst in the FBS in scoring defense on the year. The Beavers had a solid offensive showing but they have to avoid turning the ball over and setting opponents up on short fields. Keying on Love will be a major challenge for the Oregon State defense.
The under is 4-0 in the Cardinal’s last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 4-1 in their last 5 games overall, 4-1 in their last 5 games following a straight up win and 24-8-1 in their last 33 vs. a team with a losing record. Oregon State has seen the under go 5-0-1 in the last 6 games following a bye week. The teams have combined to stay under the total in six of the last eight meetings in Corvallis. Given the way the Cardinal shut down the Ducks, they should do the same to the Beavers and keep this one under the total.