Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#145 Utah State 60 vs.
#146 Air Force -4
Saturday, October 26, 2019 at 10:15pm EDT
Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#145 Utah State University
#146 Air Force Academy
4-2
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32
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The Air Force Falcons will host the Utah State Aggies in MWC action Saturday night from Falcon Stadium. The Aggies came through with an easy 36-10 home win over Nevada in their latest game, and the Falcons clobbered Hawaii 56-26 in their previous action. Air Force recorded a 42-32 home win against Air Force last season.

Utah State Remains Undefeated in Conference Play

The Utah State Aggies will look to keep their perfect MWC record intact in this big matchup. The Aggies feature a 3-0 record in conference play, placing them in a tie with Boise State atop the MWC Mountain standings. Utah State made easy work of Nevada in a 36-10 home win last week in a game that had the Aggies labeled as 23 point favorites. Jordan Love was off his game in the winning effort, posting 169 passing yards with one touchdown against one interception. The junior QB hasn’t found his groove yet this season, registering 1506 passing yards with a 7:9 TD to INT ratio.

The Utah State running game is a big threat led by the duo of Gerold Bright and Jaylen Warren. Bright accumulated 126 rushing yards against Nevada last week, and the senior is up to 445 rushing yards. Warren has eclipsed 400 rushing yards on the season as well, and both should make an impact on this game, but it won’t be easy against a solid rush defense.

Siaosi Mariner is Love’s preferable target in the air. The senior WR secured another 53 receiving yards last week, and he has a team-leading 403 receiving yards. The Utah State offense is capable of huge damage both in the air and on the ground and QB Jordan Love should rebound with a solid effort this week against a Falcons team that will give up yards in the air.

The Aggies defense has been stellar in their three MWC wins. They have contained their opposition for the most part with the exception of losses to Wake Forest and LSU. Utah State is scoring an average of 32.7 points, ranking them 43rd in the FBS. They are holding opponents to 23 points, good for 44th overall. The Aggies are 1-2 on the road.

Air Force' Scoring Barrage Resumes in Win vs. Hawaii

The Air Force Falcons are aiming for their third consecutive victory. The Falcons powerhouse offense led them to a victory against Fresno State and a 56-26 road win against Hawaii in their latest action this past weekend to lift their MWC record to 3-1. Their lone conference loss came against San Jose State. Air Force does not attempt many passes as their offense consists primarily of rushes. Falcons’ #1 QB Donald Hammond III exited last week’s game with a shoulder injury and he is questionable. The junior QB has only recorded 677 passing yards. Mike Schmidt came in for Hammond last week and he tallied 147 passing yards and 120 rushing yards. The senior QB was awarded MWC offensive player of the week as a result.

The Falcons feature four running backs with at least 250 rushing yards. They are led by Kadin Remsberg with 531 rushing yards on an average of six yards per attempt. Taven Birdow is right behind him with 462 rushing yards. They will utilize several players on the ground, and last week it was QB Mike Schmidt who led the way on the ground with 120 rushing yards.

Geraud Sanders is the Falcons clear top choice in the air. The senior WR leads the way with 479 receiving years on 20 receptions. The Air Force offense has been very productive in conference play and really, the only team to contain them was Boise State.

The Falcons defense is also playing well. They continue to shut down the run game with the 20th ranked rush defense in the FBS, while their pass defense is 74th overall. This is a big test as Utah State will be one of the toughest offensive opponents this season they have seen this season. Air Force is scoring an average of 37.4 points, ranking them 18th overall. They are conceding an average of 24 points, placing them 49th in the country. The Falcons hold a 3-0 home record.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am taking the points with Utah State in this one. Air Force has yet to be tested by an elite defense this season with the exception of their conference opener against Boise State in which they only scored 19 points. Utah State is another outstanding defense that should contain the Air Force offense. The Falcons run the ball most of the game and Utah State has a solid rush defense that will be up to the task. They are limiting opponents to 136 rushing yards per game, good for 45th in the FBS.

Furthermore, I expect the Utah State offense to have a big game offensively. They scored 42 points against Air Force last season led by Jordan Love who tallied over 300 passing yards. The Falcons pass defense stands down at 74th overall, so I expect Jordan Love, who is due for a big game, to rebound with a stellar performance.

Prediction: Utah State Aggies

Full-Game Total Pick

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The over is a solid option in this matchup as well. Utah State features a balanced offensive attack which includes the 38th ranked passing offense and a running game that is averaging 184 yards per game. I expect them to pile on the points similar to last season’s win against the Falcons. Also, the over is 9-4 in Utah State’s last 13 games following an ATS win.

In addition, while I expect the Utah State defense to minimize the damage, Air Force is a threat, scoring 43 and 56 points respectively in their last two games, and they are averaging 440 total yards per game. Also keep in mind the over is 4-0 in the Falcon’s last four games overall, and 5-1 in their last six home games.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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I am opting with the over on the Utah State team total which can be found on PointsBet. The Aggies scored 35 points against Wake Forest of the ACC, so I am confident they can solve the Falcons defense. Utah State is averaging a remarkable 453 total yards per game. They are able to accumulate 489 total yards against Air Force last season, and they have the same QB and RB’s as last year.

Prediction: Utah State Team Total Over

Half-Time Side Pick

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I am selecting Utah State on the halftime line as well. Utah State has scored a good portion of their points in the first half this season. They stand 23rd in the entire FBS with an average of 18.6 points in the first half compared to only 8.2 points in the second half. Moreover, Utah State is holding opponents to an average of only 13 points in the first half this season.

Prediction: Utah State
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.