Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#199 Wisconsin 49.5 vs.
#200 Ohio State -14
Saturday, October 26, 2019 at 12:00pm EDT
Ohio Stadium, Columbus
Written by Chris Kubala

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#199 University of Wisconsin-Madison
#200 Ohio State University
6-1
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5-2
6-1
2-5
4-3
39
49
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It’s a crossover matchup in the Big Ten in the Buckeye State in a marquee matchup on the college gridiron. The #13 Wisconsin Badgers are on the road as they travel to face the #3 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday afternoon. Wisconsin was stunned 24-23 on the road by Illinois in their previous game last Saturday. Ohio State took care of business as they rolled to a 52-3 demolition on the road over Northwestern last Friday night in their previous contest. The Buckeyes own a 59-18-5 edge in the all-time series between the teams, taking the last six meetings: that includes a 27-21 win in the Big Ten Championship Game in the last matchup on December 2, 2018.

Wisconsin Badgers Seeking to Bounce Back

Wisconsin was caught by the trap game as they were coming off a victory over Michigan State the week before. The Badgers were looking ahead to this week and it cost them as they blew a nine-point fourth quarter lead to lose to Illinois. Wisconsin allowed nearly as many points in the loss as they had in their first six games (29) this season. The Badgers outgained the Fighting Illini 420-315, won the first down battle 22-17 and dominated time of possession by a 40:49 to 19:11 margin in the contest. Wisconsin turned the ball over three times while forcing just one takeaway: they gave up touchdowns of 48, 43 and 29 yards in the contest.

The Badgers are 89th in the nation in passing offense as they average 208.3 yards per game this season. Wisconsin is 17th in the nation in rushing with 235.4 yards per contest. The Badgers are 12th in the FBS in scoring offense with 39.7 points per game and stand first in the nation as they allow only 7.6 points per game. Jack Coan is 127 of 167 passing for 1,383 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions this season. Graham Mertz is nine of 10 for 73 yards while Chase Wolf hit his lone pass for two yards. Jonathan Taylor leads the team on the ground with 157 carries for 957 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season. Nakia Watson (55 carries, 247 yards, two TD) and Garrett Groshek (23 carries, 110 yards, TD) are capable of moving the sticks when called upon. Quintez Cephus leads the team with 24 receptions for 353 yards and three touchdowns this season. Jake Ferguson (20 grabs, 242 yards, two TD), Danny Davis III (20 catches, 168 yards) and A.J. Taylor (16 receptions, 158 yards) are solid secondary targets. Collin Larsh is 36 of 37 on extra points and six of 10 on field goals with a long of 44 this season.

Ohio State Buckeyes Try to Remain Unbeaten

While Wisconsin was caught looking ahead, Ohio State had no such issue as they put the boots to Northwestern on the road. The Buckeyes now return home looking to remain unbeaten and in the mix for a top-four spot when the first CFP rankings come out in a couple of weeks. Ohio State broke open a close game with a 24-0 second quarter edge to lead 31-3 at the half before cruising the rest of the way. The Buckeyes owned a 480-199 advantage in total offense, racked up 22 first downs while allowing 14 and forced two turnovers while not committing one. Those numbers helped Ohio State offset a 32:22 to 27:38 disadvantage in time of possession.

The Buckeyes are 66th in the nation in passing offense with 239.6 yards per game through the air while the team is third in the country in rushing by averaging 287.1 yards per contest. Ohio State is third in the FBS in scoring offense with 48.7 points per game while they rank second in the nation in scoring defense as they allow eight points per contest.

Quarterback Justin Fields is 116 of 164 for 1,492 yards with 22 touchdowns and one interception: he’s added 291 yards and eight scores on the ground. Chris Chugunov is 12 of 16 for 111 yards with three touchdowns while Gunnar Hoak has hit all three passes for 74 yards and a score. J.K. Dobbins leads the team with 134 carries for 947 yards and seven scores: Master Teague III (73 carries, 512 yards, four TD) is next in line. K.J. Hill has caught 29 passes for 294 yards plus four scores to lead the team. Binjimen Victor (19 receptions, 355 yards, three TD) and Chris Olave (21 receptions, 318 yards, six TD) are other top targets in the aerial game. Blake Haubell has hit all 46 extra point attempts and is six of eight on field goals with a long of 55.

One thing is certain about Ohio State, is that head coach Ryan Day has done a good job of having them prepared to play against whoever is on their schedule.

"I think our staff has done a good job week in and week out of talking to the guys about how important it is to come every week," said Day said on Tuesday. "The leadership is the guys who drive that on the team. Their buy-in right now is pretty high. You're only as good as your last game. We have to keep that going. I think up to this point we've been playing with energy, but that goes to how we have been practicing. We have to go out today and have a great practice."

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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This one is going to be an entertaining contest. Both teams are effective offensively and very stingy defensively. Wisconsin has four shutouts already this season and hadn’t allowed more than 15 points in a game before losing last week. Ohio State has the advantage in the passing game though Fields will be challenged by a Wisconsin defense that allows only a 43.8 percent completion percentage this season. Both teams are tough defensively and it will be a challenge to see a ton of offense here. In a game like this, you have to lean toward the team that is at home: Ohio State earns their seventh straight victory in the series.

Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -14

Full-Game Total Pick

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This one is going to feature a couple of stout defenses squaring off with a pair of prolific offenses. Wisconsin has been very good on the defensive side of the ball, logging four shutouts this season. The game against Illinois was surprising given the big plays that the Badgers allowed en route to the loss. Ohio State has been excellent on the offensive side of things this season and their defense has been solid enough. Taylor is going to try and keep the Badgers in the game but the question remains as to which side blinks in the contest. Which team comes up in this contest?

The under is 4-0 in the Badgers' last four overall, 4-0 in their last four in October, 4-0 in their last four on fieldturf, 4-1 in their last five after an ATS loss and 4-1 in their last five conference games. Ohio State has seen the under go 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record and 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games. This one likely ends up a couple points short of the number as the defense carries the way here on both sides.

Prediction: Under 50.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.