The Michigan State Spartans will visit the Oregon Ducks on Friday for a Big Ten battle at Autzen Stadium. Kickoff from Eugene, OR is at 9:00 p.m. ET.
The Ducks are 24.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 52.5 points scored.
Michigan State (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS and 1-4 O/U) lost 38-7 to Ohio State last Saturday. The Spartans are 1-1 in conference competition this season.
Oregon (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS and 2-2 O/U) beat UCLA 34-13 last weekend. The Ducks are 1-0 in Big Ten play.
Friday's matchup will be the seventh-ever meeting between the Spartans and Ducks, a series Oregon leads 4-3. The teams last met in the 2018 Redbox Bowl, a 7-6 Ducks win.
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Spartans need to limit their turnovers
Michigan State played Ohio State tougher than the final box score suggests, and it easily could have a 4-1 record if not for a second-half meltdown at Boston College. The Spartans turned the football over four times against the Eagles and three more times against the Buckeyes, mistakes that ended promising drives and impeded their momentum. If they take better care of the ball in the future, they could be a dangerous team.
MSU is led by sophomore QB Aidan Chiles, who has completed 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,058 yards, five touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also has three rushing scores this season. With more seasoning, Chiles could be a star, but for now, the Spartans are growing with the 19-year-old.
Michigan State features a couple of big-body receivers in Nick Marsh (13 receptions for 262 yards and one TD) and Jaron Glover (10 receptions for 137 yards and two TDs), plus a speedy weapon in Montorie Foster Jr. (19 receptions for 217 yards and one TD) and an experienced TE in Jack Velling (13 receptions for 185 yards). The Spartans feature two capable running backs, Nate Carter (53 carries for 234 yards and one TD) and Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams (58 carries for 306 yards and one TD), as well.
The MSU offense is 104th in points scored (21.8 PPG) and 86th in total yards, as the passing game averages 237.4 yards (61st) and the ground game has been inconsistent, averaging 132.4 yards (97th). MSU has allowed ten sacks (89th) and 31 tackles for loss (103rd). Sparty sports a 39.2% third down conversion percentage (63rd) and a 66.6 percent red zone scoring percentage (115th).
The Michigan State defense ranks 30th in total yards allowed and is top-45 against the pass and the run. The Spartans have 35 tackles for loss (16th), 15 sacks (12th), five interceptions and a fumble recovery (62nd in turnovers created). They are paced by a couple of senior linebackers, Jordan Turner (31 tackles, 3.0 sacks and an INT) and Cal Haladay (24 tackles and a sack), and feature ten players with at least a half sack. MSU ranks 88th in opponent third down conversion percentage (41.9%) and 57th in opponent red zone scoring percentage (81.8%) this season.
Key injuries: WR Nick Marsh and OT Stanton Ramil are questionable.
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Oregon is a CFP contender
The Ducks have dismantled their last two opponents, beating former Pac-12 foes Oregon State and UCLA by 56 combined points. UCLA managed just 172 total yards in last Saturday's loss, averaging 5.2 yards per pass and 2.0 yards per carry. It was 1-for-10 on third down. Oregon gashed the Bruins for 153 rushing yards and 278 passing yards, as senior QB Dillon Gabriel tossed three touchdown passes for the visitors.
The ex-UCF and Oklahoma signal-caller Gabriel leads the UO offense with 1,192 passing yards and a 9:1 TD:INT ratio. He has been incredibly efficient, completing 81.5 percent of his passing attempts with an 8.8 YPA average. Gabriel's top receiving threats are senior WR Tez Johnson (33 receptions for 311 yards and four TDs), senior WR Traeshon Holden (15 receptions for 211 yards and three TDs), and senior TE Terrance Ferguson (14 receptions for 177 yards). The Ducks' ground game is paced by junior RBs Jordan James (64 carries for 386 yards and four TDs) and Noah Whittington (35 carries for 139 yards and one TD). Gabriel has also rushed for two scores.
Oregon averages 36.0 points (32nd) and 454.0 total yards (36th) per game, including 301.8 passing yards (20th) and 152.3 rushing yards (76th). UO has four turnovers (33rd) and has allowed seven sacks (56th) and 20 tackles for loss (46th). It has converted 51.5 percent of its third downs (12th) and 81.8 percent of its red zone opportunities (87th).
The Ducks' defense surrenders 18.8 points (37th) and 266.8 total yards (16th) per game, including 154.8 passing yards (16th) and 112.0 rushing yards (37th). They have 11.0 sacks (35th), 21.0 tackles for loss (103rd) and four interceptions (93rd in turnovers created). Oregon is led by senior LB Bryce Boettcher (28 tackles and one INT), Michigan State transfer DT Derrick Harmon (18 tackles and 2.0 sacks) and senior DE Jordan Burch (15 tackles, 2.5 sacks and three passes defended). UO's opponents have converted 38.6 percent of their third downs (61st) and 100.0 percent of their red zone trips into scores (last).
Key injuries: DB Khamari Terrell is questionable.
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Best Bets for Michigan State vs. Oregon
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
The Spartans will win this game outright, shocking the college football world on Friday night. Michigan State has won as a large spread underdog before, upsetting Ohio State in Columbus as double-digit underdogs in 2015, but this will be the first statement upset of new head coach Jonathan Smith's tenure in East Lansing.
The Spartans kept it close for a significant portion versus Ohio State last week and would have at least covered the spread if they had been more fortunate and careful with the football in the first half. I don't like saying Ohio State got some favorable calls, but I'll call a spade a spade.
In short, Oregon should be on upset alert against a talented Spartans team in a look-ahead spot with a date with the Buckeyes up next on the schedule. The Ducks looked vulnerable earlier in the season against Idaho and Boise State and have covered just once in four games. MSU doesn't have to be perfect on Friday to pull off the upset — it needs to play strong defense and avoid careless mistakes on offense.
Take the points if you must, but I smell an upset brewing in Eugene this week!
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Betting Trends: The under is 4-1 in MSU's games this season and 7-1 in its last eight games overall.
Michigan State will pull off the upset in a low-scoring bout in Eugene. The Ducks will have trouble with the Spartans' tenacious defense, which ranks 12th nationally in sacks and 16th in tackles for loss. MSU has experienced linebackers and good defensive backs. It will pick off a pass or two early and ride its ground game through open lanes, preventing the Ducks from winning the time-of-possession battle. The visitors won't flop in the red zone either, an area of the field Oregon has struggled to defend.
Michigan State will welcome the Ducks to the Big Ten with a rude reminder that points aren't as easy to come by as they were in the Pac-12.
