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Appalachian State vs. Texas State Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 11-10-2018

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#203 Appalachian State
Mountaineers -19.5
#204 Texas State
Bobcats 48

Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 4:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Appalachian State Mountaineers

6 - 2

6-2
ATS
5-3
O/U
38
PPG
16
OPPG

Texas State Bobcats

3 - 6

5-3
ATS
4-5
O/U
23
PPG
27
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAF
Teams #203 Appalachian State University #204 Texas State University
Open -21.5 +21.5
Current -19.5 +19.5
Market Avg

Check out this week’s college football “Fab Five” in this short video:

It’s a crossover matchup between teams from the Sun Belt down in the Lone Star State. The Appalachian State Mountaineers are on the road as they travel to face the Texas State Bobcats Saturday afternoon. Appalachian State is coming in off a 23-7 win on the road over Coastal Carolina last Saturday. Texas State has won back to back games as they took down Georgia State 40-31 on the road in their last contest last week. The Mountaineers have won both meetings between the teams, including a 20-13 road win in the last matchup on September 16, 2017.

Appalachian State Mountaineers Trying to Stay in Sun Belt Race

Appalachian State bounced back from their loss to Georgia Southern by taking down Coastal Carolina on the road. The Mountaineers are 4-1 in conference play, leaving them tied for second with the Eagles, one game behind unbeaten Troy in the East Division. Appalachian State owned a 405-178 advantage in total offense in the game, rolled up 21 first downs while allowing 11 and controlled time of possession by a 34:56 to 25:04 margin. The Mountaineers turned the ball over twice while forcing one turnover: they did record a safety to help put the game out of reach.

The Mountaineers are 19th in the FBS in scoring offense as they average 38.2 points per game. Appalachian State is 105th in the country in passing with 191.5 yards per contest and 10th with 252.1 rushing yards a game. The Mountaineers are 12th in scoring defense by allowing 16.9 points per game. Zac Thomas has hit 81 of 133 passes for 1,145 yards with 11 touchdowns against four interceptions while adding 281 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Peyton Derrick is 13 of 22 passing for 186 yards with two scores against two picks while adding 41 rushing yards and a touchdown. Jacob Huesman has completed 19 of 36 for 192 yards with two touchdowns and four picks while adding 16 yards on the ground. Zeb Speir is one of three passing for nine yards. Jalin Moore is second on the team in the ground game as he has 63 carries for 400 yards plus six scores: he is done for the year after fracturing and dislocating his ankle. Darrynton Evans leads the team with 104 carries for 647 yards plus four scores while Marcus Williams Jr. (71 carries, 356 yards, three TD) and D’Andre Hicks (24 carries, 185 yards, TD) are also in the mix. Corey Sutton leads the Mountaineers with 22 receptions for 463 yards plus five scores. Malik Williams (17 catches, 195 yards, three TD) and Thomas Hennigan (18 grabs, 193 yards) are valuable targets. Chandler Staton has booted all 38 extra points and six of eight field goal attempts with a long of 40 this season. Michael Rubino is two of three on extra points without attempting a field goal this year.

Texas State Bobcats Seek Third Straight Win

Texas State has picked up back to back wins after starting the season 1-6 and shoots to pick up a third straight win in this contest. The Bobcats are still tied with South Alabama in the basement of the West Division of the Sun Belt with a 1-4 mark. Texas State jumped to a 33-10 lead after three quarters after outscoring Georgia State 20-0 in the third. The Bobcats managed to hang on despite giving up three fourth quarter touchdowns. Texas State held a 489-445 advantage in total offense and forced two turnovers while not committing one. The Bobcats prevailed despite losing the first down battle 25-19 and the time of possession by a 33:28 to 26:32 margin.

The Bobcats are 99th in the FBS with 196.2 passing yards per contest and tied for 93rd in rushing with an average of 146.7 yards per game. Texas State is just 103rd in scoring offense with 24 points a contest and 71st in scoring defense as they allow 27.7 points per game. Willie Jones III is 72 of 129 for 958 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions while adding a team-high 391 rushing yards plus three scores. Tyler Vitt is 75 of 114 for 765 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions. Robert Brown Jr. has 61 carries for 284 rushing yards plus a touchdown while Anthony D. Taylor contributes 66 carries for 254 yards and three scores. Keenen Brown (37 receptions, 483 yards, four TD), Hutch White (28 catches, 227 yards, two TD) and Tyler Watts (15 grabs, 168 yards) are the top targets in the passing game. James Sherman has hit eight of nine extra point attempts and six of nine field goal attempts with a long of 41 yards. Chris Kessler connected on his lone extra point attempt but missed his only field goal attempt of the season. Clayton Stewart is 15 of 18 on extra points but is zero for three on field goals this season.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Texas State has won two straight games but they don’t have the offensive firepower than Appalachian State brings to the table. The Mountaineers expect to get Thomas back under center after he missed the last game with a concussion. Appalachian State should be better in this one than they were against Coastal Carolina with Thomas running the offense. The Bobcats may be at home but they can’t keep up with the Mountaineers. Appalachian State gets the victory in this one.

Prediction: Appalachian State Mountaineers -21

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

With Thomas back, the Mountaineers should be back to their high octane offensive attack. Losing Moore definitely took a toll on Appalachian State but Evans has stepped up as an effective runner. The Mountaineers have been good on both sides of the ball this season. Texas State may have won back to back games coming in but they have to show they can maintain that momentum and pull an upset win in conference play. Can the Bobcats make it three in a row here?

The over is 6-1 in the Mountaineers’ last 7 vs. a team with a losing record and 4-1 in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Texas State has seen the over go 4-1 in their last five after a straight up win and 4-1 in their last five in November. Look for this one to go over the total as well as Appalachian State piles up the points in this one.

Prediction: Over 48

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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