The struggling Central Michigan Chippewas will host the last-place Bowling Green Falcons in a MAC matchup Saturday afternoon from Kelly Shorts Stadium. The Falcons are coming off a 35-28 home loss to Kent State, and the Chippewas dropped a 17-7 road decision to Eastern Michigan in their latest contest. Bowling Green tallied a 17-14 road win over Central Michigan last season.
Falcons Still Hunting for First Conference Win
The Bowling Green Falcons are still searching for that elusive first conference win of the season. Their defensive struggles resumed in a 35-28 home loss to Kent State last week, extending their losing streak to six games. Jarret Doege was solid in the defeat, recording 207 passing yards with three TD’s. The sophomore quarterback has been a bright spot in a rough season, amassing 2285 passing yards with a stellar 23:9 TD to INT ratio. Falcons’ leading rusher Andrew Clair (495 rushing yards) sat out last week with an ankle injury, and he is questionable for this one. A player to watch for is receiver Scott Miller. The talented senior has collected at least 117 receiving yards in three out of his last five games, and he has accumulated a total of 860 receiving yards with seven touchdowns on the season. The Falcons offense has played well in three out of their last four games led by a productive passing game.
— #MACtion (@MACSports) October 31, 2018
The Bowling Green defense has struggled all season. They rank near the bottom of the country in most categories with the exception of a strong pass defense. They surrendered another 225 rushing yards last week, and their rush defense ranks at the bottom of the FBS at 129th overall. The Falcons are currently averaging 25.9 points, ranking them 94th in the FBS. They are squandering an average of 46.3 points, pegging them down at 129th in the FBS.
Central Michigan’s Offensive Woes Continue
The Central Michigan Chippewas are still aiming for their first conference win of the season. Their offensive issues resumed in a 17-7 road loss to Eastern Michigan last week to extend their slide to six games. Tony Poljan struggled in the loss, collecting only 45 passing yards on 26 pass attempts. The sophomore QB has not been able to generate any offense in place of #1 QB Tommy Lazzaro who is out for the season, recording 625 passing yards with a 2:5 TD to INT ratio. Chippewas’ #1 RB Romello Ross has played reasonably well. He added 57 rushing yards last week, and he has tallied 326 rushing yards on an average of 4.9 yards per carry in five games. Central Michigan does not have a receiver with more than 300 rushing yards. Julian Hicks leads the way with 251 yards.
— CMU Football (@CMU_Football) November 4, 2018
The Chippewas own the worst offense in the entire MAC conference. They are going to struggle to score points the rest of the way. The Central Michigan defense has performed well in two straight games, and overall the Chippewas defense has been solid this season. They limited Eastern Michigan to only 349 total yards last week, and they are holding opponents to an average of only 347 total yards per game. The Chippewas are averaging 15.4 points, ranking them 129th overall. They are holding opponents to 25.3 points, pegging them 58th in the FBS.
The Central Michigan Chippewas are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
The Bowling Green Falcons are:
- 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record.
- the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between Bowling Green and Central Michigan.
- under is 7-3 in their last 10 November games.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking Bowling Green in this one. Bowling Green owns the much better offense in this matchup, and they should be able to solve the Chippewas defense. Falcons’ QB Jarret Doege features a stellar 23:9 TD to INT ratio, and Bowling Green is averaging a solid 266 passing yards per game, good for 37th in the FBS. Also, Bowling Green is averaging a solid 28.3 points in their last four games.
Furthermore, the Chippewas feature one of the worst offensive units in the entire FBS. They have scored 10 or fewer points in three consecutive games, and QB Tony Poljan has struggled in place of the injured Tommy Lazzaro, posting a poor 2:5 TD to INT ratio in four full games. Poljan will have trouble against a Bowling Green defense that features the 20th ranked pass defense in the FBS.
Prediction: Bowling Green Falcons
Full-Game Total Pick
The under is a strong option in this matchup. Central Michigan is struggling to generate any offense, averaging only nine points in their last three games. The under is 4-0 in their last four games, and I expect the under to cash in again in this one.
In addition, while I expect some offense from Bowling Green, Central Michigan has held their opponent to 17 points in back-to-back games, and the Falcons definitely aren’t an offensive powerhouse, plus the under is 5-0 in the last five meetings these two teams.
Full-Game Prop Bet
The under on the Chippewas team total is a strong play. Central Michigan is struggling without their #1 QB Tommy Lazzaro who is out for the season. His replacement Tony Poljan is only completing 51% of his passes. Central Michigan is only averaging nine points in their last three games, and their offensive issues will resume in this one.
Prediction: Central Michigan Team Total: Under 29.5
Half-Time Side Pick
I am taking the Chippewas on the halftime line. Central Michigan was able to limit Eastern Michigan to only seven points in the first half last week, and their defense should keep this one close in the first half. In addition, the Falcons first half defense has been awful, allowing an average of 22.4 points, ranking them 118th in the FBS.
Prediction: Central Michigan -4
Half-Time Total Bet
The under on the halftime total is worth a look. Central Michigan is averaging three more points in the second half this season. Also, Bowling Green is only averaging 14.1 points in the opening half this season, pegging them 64th in the FBS. I expect a low scoring game throughout the entire contest.
Prediction: Under 26
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I am taking Bowling Green to score first. Central Michigan continues to struggle to score in the first quarter as they have been shutout in the opening quarter in three consecutive games. The Falcons are averaging a decent 5.7 points in the first quarter in their last three games.
Prediction: Bowling Green to Score First +125