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It’s a matchup of SEC West Division foes down in the Razorback State in week 11 college football action. The #7 LSU Tigers are on the road as they travel to face the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday night. LSU suffered a 29-0 loss at home to #1 Alabama last Saturday in their previous contest. Arkansas was dropped 45-31 at home by Vanderbilt in their last game back on October 27: they had a bye week last week. The Tigers hold a 38-22-2 advantage in the all-time series between the programs and have taken the last two meetings, including a 33-10 win at home in the last matchup on November 11, 2017.
LSU Tigers Hope to Bounce Back After Shellacking
LSU had won two straight after falling to Florida but was overmatched by #1 Alabama. Not even playing at home in front of their fans was enough for the Tigers, who were shut down by the Crimson Tide. LSU trailed 16-0 at the half and when Alabama made it 23-0 with 5:14 to play in the third quarter, this one was pretty much over. The Tigers were crushed 576-196 in total offense, lost the first down battle 29-13 and saw Alabama control the clock by a 35:18 to 24:42 margin in the contest. Both teams turned the ball over once but LSU never threatened: their deepest drive ended at the Alabama 12 with an interception.
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) November 4, 2018
The Tigers are 104th in the FBS in passing offense with 192 yards per contest while ranking 61st in rushing with 170.8 yards per game on the ground. LSU is 83rd in the nation in scoring offense as they put up 27 points per contest and 11th as they allow 16.7 points per game. Joe Burrow is 138 of 258 passing for 1,728 yards with six touchdown passes against four interceptions while adding 243 yards and four scores on the ground. Zach Von Rosenberg misfired on his lone pass attempt. Nick Brosette leads the team with 158 carries for 702 yards plus 10 scores. Clyde Edwards-Helaire contributes 111 carries for 535 yards plus five scores. Justin Jefferson leads the team with 36 receptions for 552 yards and two touchdowns this season. Dee Anderson chips in 17 grabs for 215 yards while Stephen Sullivan has 15 catches for 184 yards plus a score. Cole Tracy has hit all 24 extra point attempts and 21 of 24 field goal attempts with a long of 54.
Arkansas Razorbacks Try to Spring Upset
Arkansas went right back to their losing ways as they were unable to build off a shutout win over Tulsa. The Razorbacks were sliced and diced defensively by Vanderbilt and dropped to 0-5 in SEC action on the season. Arkansas was within 21-17 in the third quarter but after Vanderbilt went up 31-17 early in the fourth, the Razorbacks didn’t get closer than seven the rest of the way. In the game, Arkansas had a slim 447-442 edge in total offense but lost the first down battle (25-21) and the time of possession (35:32 to 24:28) in the contest. The Razorbacks turned the ball over twice while not forcing a takeaway.
Last 5 games for @OhMyGrady85? Pretty impressive.
CJ’s @PFF_College numbers among SEC TEs since week 5:
1️⃣ in Overall Grade
1️⃣ in Passing Game Grade
1️⃣ in Receptions
1️⃣ in TDs
2️⃣ in Targets
2️⃣ in Yardage
2️⃣ in Yards After Catch pic.twitter.com/liizR1LpUM
— Arkansas Razorbacks Football (@RazorbackFB) October 30, 2018
The Razorbacks are 94th in the FBS in passing offense with 202.4 yards per game and is 58th with 176 yards per contest on the ground. Arkansas is 90th in scoring offense with an average of 26.3 points per contest and 103rd in scoring defense by allowing 33.7 points per contest. Ty Storey is 104 of 178 passing for 1,223 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding 201 rushing yards and a score. Cole Kelley is 35 of 66 for 455 yards with five touchdowns against five interceptions while adding 73 yards and three scores on the ground. Connor Noland is 14 of 23 for 149 yards with a touchdown and two picks. Rakeem Boyd is the lead back in the ground game with 94 carries for 615 yards and two scores. Devwah Whaley chips in 65 carries for 298 yards plus two scores while Chase Hayden adds 55 carries for 252 yards and a touchdown. La’Michael Pettway (21 receptions, 354 yards, four TD) and Cheyenne O’Grady (21 catches, 284 yards, four TD) are tied for the team lead in receptions. Boyd adds 18 grabs for 154 yards as a safety valve. Connor Limpert has booted all 27 extra points and 16 of 20 field goal attempts with a long of 55.
- Razorbacks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss
- Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games
- Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Arkansas has been awful in conference play and their showing against Vanderbilt didn’t inspire any confidence. Chad Morris clearly has an uphill climb with getting the Razorbacks to respectability in the SEC. LSU saw that they were overmatched against #1 Alabama but gets a chance to regroup here. The Tigers can rely on their defense to get some short fields or at least favorable field position. That takes some pressure off Burrow, who isn’t built to rally teams from behind with his arm. LSU gets the upper hand here and puts things away as they get back in the win column.
Prediction: LSU Tigers -13
Full-Game Total Pick
Points are going to be hard to come by, at least for Arkansas. LSU’s defense has been terrific this season and is going to test Arkansas, who has committed at least one turnover in each of their last eight games and have 19 total on the season. That falls right into the Tigers’ wheelhouse as they have generated 20 takeaways on the year with at least one in every game. Can Arkansas find a way to take better care of the ball and test the LSU defense in order to stay in the game?
The under is 9-2 in the Tigers’ last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home, 13-3 in their last 16 in November, 4-1 in their last five against teams with a losing record and 4-1 in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Arkansas has seen the under go 5-0 in their last five after an ATS loss and 8-2 in their last 10 after a bye week. LSU’s defense takes care of business and helps keep this one under the number when the final gun sounds.
Prediction: Under 47.5