The Texas A&M Aggies will aim for their second straight win when they host the Mississippi Rebels in an SEC battle Saturday afternoon from Kyle Field. The Rebels came up short in a 48-44 home loss to South Carolina last week, and the Aggies are coming off a 28-24 road loss to Auburn in their previous action. Texas A&M notched a 31-24 road win over Mississippi last season.
Ole Miss Defense Falters in Tough Loss to South Carolina
The Mississippi Rebels head into this contest striving to snap a two-game slide. Their defensive issues continued in a 48-44 home loss to South Carolina last week to fall to 1-4 in SEC play. Jordan Ta’amu was terrific in the defeat, collecting 379 passing yards. The senior QB has recorded over 300 passing yards in four consecutive games, and he has accumulated 3001 passing yards with a 16:5 TD to INT ratio on the season. Rebels’ leading rusher Scottie Phillips is coming off one of his best performances of the season with a 141 yard performance last week. The junior RB has now accrued 923 rushing yards on the season. A player to watch for in this one is Rebels’ #1 receiver A.J. Brown. The junior WR has amassed 270 receiving yards in his last two games, and he has tallied 920 yards on the year. Brown will be targeted frequently against a subpar pass defense in this one.
MIDWEEK REPORT | The Ole Miss offensive front is preparing for its toughest test yet against the nation's No. 2 rushing defense in Texas A&M.
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 8, 2018
Scoring points hasn’t been an issue for Ole Miss this season, and they feature a potent passing game that ranks fourth in the FBS. The Ole Miss defense, on the other hand, has been a glaring weakness all season. They surrendered a whopping 510 total yards last week, and they are having issues defending both the pass and run. The Rebels remain one win away from bowl eligibility, and they are currently averaging 39 points, ranking them 15th in the FBS. They are conceding 36.1 points, pegging them down at 111th overall.
Aggies Fall to Auburn in Second Straight Loss
The Texas A&M Aggies are in desperate need of a win after losing two straight games. They could not hold a fourth-quarter lead in their 28-24 road loss to Auburn last week. Kellen Mond only completed 50% of his passes for 220 yards in the defeat. The sophomore QB has only recorded three TD passes in his last three games, and he is up to 2252 passing yards with a 12:7 TD to INT ratio on the year. Aggies’ #1 RB Trayveon Williams was able to collect 107 rushing yards against Auburn, and he is up against a weak defense in this one. The junior is one of the best running backs in the SEC, and he has accumulated 931 rushing yards on the year.
Aggies’ leading receiver Jace Sternberger has only notched 72 receiving yards in his last two games, and he has 568 receiving yards on the year. The Aggies’ offense has cooled off recently, scoring only a combined 37 points in their last two games.
— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) November 3, 2018
The Texas A&M defense has allowed 28 points in back-to-back games which included a 28-13 loss to Mississippi State in week eight. They own a subpar pass defense which is countered by a terrific rush defense. The Aggies now stand in fourth place in the SEC West, and they dropped out of the Top 25 Rankings this week. They are currently averaging 29.2 points, ranking them 65th in the country. Texas A&M is holding opponents to 22.2 points, placing them 34th in the FBS.
The Texas A&M Aggies are:
- 5-16 ATS in their last 21 November games.
- 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up loss.
- 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss.
The Mississippi Rebels are:
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Texas A&M.
- over is 11-4 in their last 15 SEC games.
- over is 13-4 in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking the points with Mississippi in this one. Rebels’ QB Jordan Ta’amu is one of the best QB’s in the entire FBS. He ranks fourth in the nation with 3001 passing yards, and the Rebels passing offense ranks fourth in the FBS with an average of 352 passing yards per game. While Texas A&M does have a strong defense, their pass defense has been a weakness, allowing an average of 244 passing yards per game, placing them 83rd in the FBS. I expect a big game from Jordan Ta’amu in this one.
In addition, Texas A&M has not been scoring with any consistency. They have scored 24 or fewer points in five out of their last six games, and while they should generate some offense, it will be difficult for them to cover this spread considering their offensive struggles.
Prediction: Ole Miss Rebels
Full-Game Total Pick
The over is a solid play in this one. Mississippi features a potent offense that ranks 15th in the nation with an average of 39 points per game, and they are averaging a sizzling 546 total yards per game, so they should be able to solve the Aggies defense led by QB Jordan Ta’amu.
In addition, Ole Miss is very weak defensively, and even a scuffling Aggies’ offense should be able to generate a significant amount of offense. The Rebels have allowed an average of 37 points in their last three games, and the over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. The over is 7-1 in the Aggies’ last eight games following an ATS loss, and it should convert in this one.
Full-Game Prop Bet
The over on the Mississippi team total is worth a look. The Aggies defense hasn’t been quite as effective recently, allowing 28 points to Mississippi State, followed by 28 points against Auburn last week. The Rebels are averaging 33.3 points on the road this season, and they should do solid damage led by the dangerous Jordan Ta’amu who ranks fourth in the FBS with 3001 passing yards.
Prediction: Mississippi Team Total: Over 27.5
Half-Time Side Pick
I am staying with Ole Miss on the halftime line. The Rebels are averaging a solid 18.6 points in the first half this season, ranking them 27th in the FBS. In addition, the Aggies are only averaging 13 points in the first half, and only 11.3 points in the opening half on their home field.
Prediction: Mississippi Rebels +7.5
Half-Time Total Bet
The over on the halftime total is worth a look. Both Mississippi and Texas A&M are averaging more points in the first half this season. The Rebels are averaging three more points in the first half, while the Aggies are averaging 1.2 more points in the first half.
Prediction: Over 34.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I am taking the under on the first quarter total. Ole Miss is only averaging three points in the first quarter in their last three games, and Texas A&M is holding opponents to only 4.7 points in the opening quarter this season. In addition, the Aggies are only averaging 4.6 points in the opening quarter this season.
Prediction: First Quarter Total: Under