The South Alabama Jaguars will look to snap a two-game slide when they host the UL Monroe Warhawks in a Sun Belt Sun West matchup Saturday evening from the Ladd-Peebles Stadium. The Warhawks cruised to a 44-25 home win against Georgia Southern last week, and the Jaguars fell 38-14 to Arkansas State in their previous action. South Alabama recorded a 33-23 home win against UL Monroe last season.
Warhawks Move into First Place in Sun Belt West
The UL Monroe Warhawks head into this one on a roll. They have won three consecutive games to move into first place in the Sun Belt West which included a 44-25 home win over Georgia Southern last week. Caleb Evans was productive in the win, accumulating 337 passing yards with two TD’s against two INT’s, and he added 102 rushing yards. The junior QB is a dual threat, and he is having a productive year, amassing 2083 passing yards with an 11:8 TD to INT ratio to go with a team-leading 520 rushing yards. Warhawks’ #1 RB Derrick Gore has rushed for over 100 yards in two out of his last three games, and he is just ahead of Caleb Evans with a team-leading 545 rushing yards on the year. Marcus Green collected a season-best 149 receiving yards last week, and he is Evans’ top target in the air with a total of 688 receiving yards.
— ULM Football (@ULM_FB) November 4, 2018
The Warhawks offense is having an inconsistent season, although they have scored over 40 points in two out of their last three games. The UL Monroe defense has been sharp in their current three-game winning streak. They held Texas State to 14 points two weeks ago, and they limited Georgia Southern to only 216 total yards last week. UL Monroe is currently averaging 26.2 points, ranking them 91st in the FBS. They are conceding 34.3 points, pegging them 106th overall.
South Alabama’s Defensive Woes Resume in Another Loss
The South Alabama Jaguars were eliminated from bowl eligibility in their 38-14 road loss to Arkansas State last week to drop to 1-4 in conference play. Evan Orth saw the majority of the action at QB last week, and he only managed 63 yards on 15 pass attempts. The senior QB is completing 65% of his passes on the year, although he only has a total of 1704 passing yards with a 10:6 TD to INT ratio this season. Orth is questionable for this one with a shoulder injury. Jaguars #1 RB Tra Minter is playing well, amassing 187 rushing yards in his last two games, and he has tallied 450 rushing yards on the season. South Alabama’s top receiver Jamarius Way could play a big role in this contest against a weak pass defense. The senior WR has collected a total of 624 receiving yards on the season, and he has two TD’s in his last two games.
— #MOBSquad (@USAFBRecruits) November 2, 2018
The South Alabama offense has not been able to break through offensively this season, and they have failed to score more than 20 points in four out of their last five games. The Jaguars defense has defended well against the pass for most of the season, however, they squandered 354 passing yards to Arkansas State last week. The Jaguars are averaging 23.4 points, pegging them 112th overall. They are conceding 39 points on the year, placing them down at 122nd in the FBS.
The South Alabama Jaguars are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
- 5-19 ATS in their last 24 games in November.
- 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 conference games.
The UL Monroe Warhawks are:
- 7-1 ATS in their last 8 November games.
- 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
- 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking UL Monroe in this matchup. UL Monroe is clicking on both offense and defense right now, and they are up against a struggling South Alabama team. The Warhawks feature a productive rushing offense that is averaging a solid 181 rushing yards per game, and they are up against a poor South Alabama rush defense that ranks down at 113th in the country.
Furthermore, UL Monroe is playing terrific defense, allowing 25 or fewer points in three straight games. South Alabama has scored 17 or fewer points in four out of their last five games, and they lack any big threats, plus they rank down at 117th in the country with an average of only 337 total yards per game.
Prediction: UL Monroe
Full-Game Total Pick
I expect some offense from both sides in this contest. The Warhawks have scored at least 44 points in two out of their last three games, and the South Alabama is scuffling, surrendering at least 38 points in three out of their last four games, plus the over is 5-0 in South Alabama’s last five games against a team with a winning record.
In addition, while the UL Monroe defense has fared well recently, they still rank near the bottom of the country in pass defense and total yards against. South Alabama has a solid receiver in Jamarius Way who has tallied 624 receiving yards, and RB Tra Minter has rushed for at least 88 yards in two straight games. The over is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last five conference games, and that trend should continue in this one.
Full-Game Prop Bet
UL Monroe should have a big game offensively. South Alabama has consistently struggled defensively, and they are now allowing an average of 449 total yards per game. The Warhawks’ top three RB’s are all averaging over five yards per carry, and South Alabama has especially struggled against the run. UL Monroe just scored 44 points against a strong Georgia Southern defense, and they should put up big points again in this one.
Prediction: UL Monroe Team Total: Over
Half-Time Side Pick
I am staying with UL Monroe on the halftime line. The Warhawks are much more productive in the opening half where they are averaging 15 points and 22.7 points in the first half in their last three games, compared to an average of only 10.2 points in the second half. In addition, South Alabama is only averaging 11.8 points in the first half this season.
Prediction: UL Monroe
Half-Time Total Bet
The over on the halftime total is also a solid play. South Alabama’s first half defense is one of the worst in the FBS. They are squandering an average of 25 points in the first half, pegging them 128th overall. UL Monroe’s defense hasn’t been much better in the first half with an average of 23.1 points against in the first half.
Half-Time Prop Prediction
UL Monroe should jump out to a sizeable first quarter lead. The Warhawks are averaging a solid 11.3 points in the opening quarter in their last three games, and the Jaguars’s defense has repeatedly struggled in the first quarter, allowing an average of 11.1 points on the season.
Prediction: First Quarter Line: UL Monroe