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Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 11-10-2018

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#185 Vanderbilt
Commodores 58.5
#186 Missouri
Tigers -16

Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 12:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Vanderbilt Commodores

4 - 5

5-4
ATS
3-6
O/U
25
PPG
25
OPPG

Missouri Tigers

5 - 4

4-4
ATS
5-3
O/U
35
PPG
27
OPPG

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The Vanderbilt Commodores will head on the road to Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon for a late-season SEC tilt against the Missouri Tigers.

Vanderbilt enters this game with an extra week to prepare following their bye week. Meanwhile, Missouri is fresh off of its first victory over a ranked opponent this season after taking down No.11-Florida on the road in Gainesville last week.

Vandy could be thin at safety vs. Missouri

Fresh off of a bye week, the Commodores are coming off of a win in their last game on the road against Arkansas two weeks ago. Ke’Shawn Vaughn returned to action after leaving the field during the team’s game against Florida two weeks ago. He finished with 26 carries for 172 yards and three touchdowns on the day, while quarterback Kyle Shurmur completed 13 of his 19 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions to propel the Commodores to a 45-31 victory. Junior tight end Jared Pinkey caught five balls for 93 yards and a season-high two touchdowns to lead the team in receiving on the day, bringing his season total to five on the year, and the Commodores’ defense forced two pivotal turnovers to help secure the win and snap a three-game slide.

The Commodores will be without safety Zaire Jones, who was suspended for the second time this season after violating the team’s student conduct policy. This time, Jones’ suspension will last for the remainder of the season. The team was already slated to be thin at safety this week, as starter LaDarius Wiley is in Los Angeles to mourn the death of his father and his status for this week is questionable at best.

Vanderbilt enters the week with a 4-5 overall record so far this season. They are scoring 25.6 points per game and averaging 383.8 yards per game on offense, while allowing 25.1 points and 412.4 yards of total offense per contest. The Commodores also comes in averaging just 5.6 penalties per game, which is tied for the fewest in the SEC. Head coach Derek Mason’s squad has lost four of their five games to teams ranked in the top-15 in the country and three of those losses came by 10 points or less.

Lock having another spectacular season for Tigers

Missouri is fresh off of their most impressive victory of the season — a 38-17 victory on the road in Gainesville against a ranked Florida Gators team. The Tigers went into The Swamp and pulled out a resounding victory behind another strong performance from quarterback Drew Lock, who picked apart the Gators’ secondary for the second straight year. Lock finished 24 of 32 for 250 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on the day, as the Tigers dominated from the outset en route to a 21-point victory against the No.11-ranked Gators. Missouri racked up 471 yards of total offense compared to just 323 for the Gators, while also dominating the time of possession thanks to a rushing attack that compiled 221 yards and 5.3 yards per carry on the ground. Damarea Crockett led the team in rushing with 114 yards and a score, while Larry Roundtree III converted his 14 carries into 72 yards and a touchdown. While neither team committed a turnover on the day, the difference came on third down, where the Tigers were 11 of 18, while holding the Gators to just three successful conversions in 15 tries.

Missouri now owns a 5-4 overall record after defeating Florida last week. Lock comes into the game against Vanderbilt with 2,394 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and only six interceptions on the season, while completing 62.1 percent of his passes. The Tigers are scoring 35.8 points per game and 469.8 yards of total offense per game this year, while allowing 27.6 points and 404.6 yards on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Both of these teams are better than their respective records might indicate. Three of Missouri’s four losses this season came against teams ranked inside the top-12 in the nation and two of their four losses came by two points or less. Meanwhile, three of the Commodores four defeats have come at the hands of teams ranked in the top-15 and three of those losses came by 10 points or less. With that being said, 17 points seems like a fairly lofty number, especially considering Ke’Shawn Vaughn is back for the Commodores. Take Vanderbilt to cover the spread on the road in this SEC showdown on Saturday.

Prediction: Pick: Vanderbilt +17

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

With Ke’Shawn Vaughn back in the fold for Vanderbilt, they should be able to move the ball on offense against this Missouri team. However, these two teams have gone under the projected total in each of their last four meetings and the Tigers have stayed under the projected total in nine of their last 12 November games. Instead, I see this one ending up as more of a grind-it-out kind of a battle, which has me leaning towards the under in this SEC matchup on Saturday.

Prediction: Under 62

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

Vanderbilt had an extra week to prepare and get healthy for this game. With nearly 10 points to play with in the first half, you have to like your chances with the Commodores in this game. Both of these teams have faced some tough competition this year and are better than their records might indicate, so I expect this to be a closely contested matchup. Take the points in the first half and roll with the Commodores in this game on Saturday.

Prediction: Vanderbilt +9.5

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

Missouri’s defense has allowed just 17 and 14 points in back-to-back games against ranked SEC opponents. Meanwhile, the Commodores have scored just 19.5 points per game over the last four weeks and that number was buoyed by putting up 45 last week on the road against Arkansas. Look for this game to stay under the projected first half total on Saturday.

Prediction: Under 33.5

Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.

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