Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#305 Bowling Green 51.5 vs.
#306 Miami - OH -18
Wednesday, November 13, 2019 at 8:00pm EST
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#305 Bowling Green State University
#306 Miami University
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The Miami Ohio Redhawks will host the Bowling Green Falcons in MAC action Wednesday night from Yager Stadium. The Falcons crushed Akron by a 35-6 score in their previous action, and the Redhawks tallied a 24-21 road win against Ohio in their latest game last Wednesday. Miami Ohio logged a 38-23 road win against Bowling Green last season.

Bowling Green Ends Two Game Slide with Blowout Win

The Bowling Green Falcons will have to win all three remaining games to secure bowl eligibility. The Falcons are battling for position in the top half of the MAC East, sporting a 2-3 conference record with a third-place finish not out of the question. They snapped a two-game slide with a dominating 35-6 home win over Akron last week in a matchup that had the Falcons favored by 4 points. Grant Loy has split the duties with Darius Wade this season. Loy has seen more action which included 113 passing yards in the win against Akron. The junior QB is a dual-threat, recording 792 passing yards with a 5:7 TD to INT ratio, and he has added 363 rushing yards.

Davon Jones leads all Falcons' running backs with 334 rushing yards. The senior is questionable with a leg injury. Jones has seen increased playing time due to the injury to Andrew Clair who is also questionable. Clair has 244 rushing yards.

Watch for Quintin Morris in this one as he is targeted frequently. The junior tight end has made 12 grabs in his last four games and is up to 515 receiving yards. Bowling Green’s offense has struggled through most of conference play and they lean on their ground game to generate yards.

The Falcons’ defense is very inconsistent and not reliable. While they held Akron to six points in their latest action, they squandered 49 points to Western Michigan in their prior game. The rush defense is especially an issue, ranking down at 120th in the FBS. Bowling Green is scoring an average of 17.6 points, pegging them down at 122nd overall. They are allowing an average of 33.8 points, positioning them 111th overall. The Falcons hold an 0-4 road record.

Miami Ohio's Defense Shines in Third Straight Victory

The Miami Ohio Redhawks can earn bowl eligibility with a victory in this game. The Redhawks are in a good position with three games remaining. They hold onto first place in the MAC East with a 4-1 conference record. Miami Ohio resumed their stellar defensive play in a 24-21 road win against Ohio last week in a matchup that had the Redhawks labeled as seven-point favorites. Brett Gabbert doesn’t put up big numbers on an offense focused on the run. The freshman QB has registered 1509 passing yards with a 6:5 TD to INT ratio on the season.

The Redhawks will run the ball frequently but it has not translated to success. They stand 108th overall in rushing yards per game. Tyre Shelton rushed for 148 yards a few weeks ago, and he leads the way with 356 yards.

James Maye has established himself as the Redhawks’ top target in the air. The freshman WR has tallied at least 60 receiving yards in four straight games, and he has 298 receiving yards. The Miami Ohio offense has scored less than 30 points in four of their five conference games.

The Redhawks defense is a big reason they are 4-1 in MAC play. They have been sharp for most of the season with the exception of a 76-5 loss to Ohio State. Miami Ohio’s pass defense is exceptionally tough, standing 37th in the country. The Redhawks are currently averaging 22.7 points, ranking them 107th overall. They are allowing an average of 31.7 points, placing them 84th overall. The Redhawks feature a 3-0 home record.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I expect a decisive home win from Miami Ohio. The Redhawks are playing their best football of the season right now, registering three consecutive wins highlighted by stellar defensive play. I expect them to neutralize a terrible Bowling Green offense. The Falcons have scored 20 or fewer points in seven of their eight games against FBS opponents this season.

Furthermore, while Miami Ohio isn’t a high scoring team, this is a defense they should be able to exploit. Bowling Green has surrendered at least 38 points in two out of their last three games. The Redhawks top running back Tyre Shelton is averaging a solid 5.3 yards per attempt and I expect him to have a big game against a Falcons rush defense that stands down at 120th in the FBS.

Prediction: Miami Ohio Redhawks

Full-Game Total Pick

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The under is a very strong play in this matchup. The Bowling Green offense does not excel in any particular area, and the Redhawks defense is locked in right now. They have limited their opponents to 24 or fewer points in three consecutive games, and that success should continue in this one, plus the under is 6-1 in Bowling Green’s last seven games overall.

In addition, while I expect a decent amount of offense from the Redhawks, they are only averaging 24.8 points in MAC play this season. The under is 5-0-1 in their last six Wednesday games, and 4-0 in their last four games following a straight-up win.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The under on the Bowling Green team total available on PointsBet is a recommended option. Bowling Green is especially having trouble generating offense on the road. They have been shutout twice on the road, and they are averaging an abysmal 7.5 points in their four road games. Moreover, Miami Ohio has an excellent pass defense and they have limited their last two opponents in Kent State and Ohio to 16 and 21 points respectively.

Prediction: Bowling Green Team Total Under

Half-Time Total Bet

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I expect a very low scoring first half. Both teams rank near the bottom of the entire country in offensive production in the first half. Bowling Green is only averaging 7.8 points, placing them down at 125th overall, and Miami Ohio hasn’t been much better with an average of only eight points. Also, the Redhawks defense has been tremendous in the first half recently. They have only conceded an average of 7.7 points in the opening half in their last three games.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.