Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#351 Air Force -10 vs.
#352 Colorado State 60
Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 7:00pm EST
Written by David Hess

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#351 Air Force Academy
#352 Colorado State University
7-2
4-5
5-4
6-3
5-4
4-5
34
31
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31

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College Football action on Saturday and a pair of teams from the Mountain West Conference will square off as the Air Force Falcons rumble with the Colorado State Rams at Sonny Lubrick Field at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado. The Falcons won this game at home last year by a score of 27-18. The Falcons enter this contest at 7-2 overall, including 4-2 in league play while the Rams are at 4-5 overall, including 2-3 within the MWC.

Falcons Are Flying High

The Air Force Falcons started their season with a 2-0 record, which including a road win over Colorado from the Pac-12. They then lost two of their next three games but are now flying high as the Falcons enter this game have won their last four games in a row. The Falcons are now 7-2 overall, including 4-1 in Mountain West Conference play. Air Force trails Boise State by one game in the Mountain Division but it is actually a two-game deficit as their lone conference loss was to the Broncos. The Falcons have outscored their foes 36.8 ppg to 17.5 ppg during the four-game win streak.

The United States Air Force displays their might through the air but the Air Force Falcons flex their muscles on the ground. This is a team that is 127th in the nation in passing, compared to 2nd in rushing and that could be a huge issue for the Rams, who are 111th in the nation against the run. Making matters worse for Colorado State is that Air Force has averaged 430.3 ppg on the ground in winning the last three games in this series. The Falcons have scored 40.3 ppg in those games. Can the Falcons continue to dominate this team on the ground? You will just have to keep reading to find out.

Leading the ground attack for the Falcons has been Kadin Remsberg, who has 677 yards rushing so far, but we do note that he has been listed as questionable for this game. Timothy Jackson is next with 661 yards while Tavin Birdow is 3rd with 593 yards. The Falcons have a loaded backfield. Donald Hammond III has thrown for 712 yards with five TDs and four INTs on the year. The defense has been very solid for air Force all year as they are 19th in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed, giving up just 20.9 ppg, but they have been a bit better of late, having allowed 20 total points in their last two games. The defense will be tested against a CSU offense that is 23rd in the nation in total offense and 52nd in scoring, putting up 31.7 ppg.

The Rams Have Turned Things Around

The Colorado State Rams had a miserable 1-5 start to their year, which including a 21 point loss at Colorado. The same Colorado team that the Falcons beat on the road. Even worse for CSU over their first six games was the fact that the Rams' lone win over that stretch was against FCS foe, Western Illinois. Since their horrible start, the Rams have turned it around as they come in having won three games in a row. Granted, two of the wins were against New Mexico on the road and UNLV at home but they also beat Fresno State on the road in those games. Now they are tasked with keeping it rolling against an Air Force team that has run through, over and around them in the last three meetings. Just look at the air Force writeup for that info.

The Rams have been a solid offensive team this year, especially their passing game, which ranks 12th in the nation and they could have some success against Air Force's 55th ranked pass defense. Colorado State is off a 37-17 home win over UNLV and they had a rather balanced attack, throwing for 254 yards while rushing for 174 yards in the contest. Patrick O'Brien didn't have a TD or an INT in the game but he still threw for 234 yards on 19-of-29 passing. He has thrown for 1950 yards with eight TDs and three INTs on the year. The run game has not been great this year over as they rank 76th but we do note that despite losing leading rusher Marvin Kinsey to suspension, they have rushed for 178 and 174 yards in their last two games. The Rams will have a tough time keeping that going against an Air Force team that ranks 9th in the nation against the run.

The Rams have had their issues on defense this year as they enter this game 68th in yards allowed at 395.7 ypg and 96th in points allowed at 32.0 ppg but CSU has been a bit better of late. During their three-game winning streak, the Rams have allowed just 373 ypg and 23.0 ppg. The Run defense has still struggled some as they have allowed 183.7 ypg over their last three games and will now be facing the 2nd best ground attack in the nation. The Rams are 20th in the land against the pass but that will not be much of a factor against a team that doesn't throw the ball a lot and is 127th in the nation in passing. Can the run defense for the Rams step up in this one? Keep reading to find out.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Rams have been playing better of late but two of their last three wins were against New Mexico and UNLV. They also have a 21 point loss to Colorado on the road and that is the same team that Air Force beat on the road. The problem for the Rams here is that they are 111th in the nation against the run and the Falcons are 2nd in the nation in rushing. Making it worse for Colorado State is the fact that the Falcons have rushed for 430.3 ypg and have averaged 40.2 ppg in their last three meetings with the Rams. The Falcons won all three games. I will look for them to have another huge game against this bad Rams' run defense. Look for Air Force to win by at least 14 points.

Prediction: Air Force -10.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will take the Over in this game. The Falcons are a running team, but they will get big chunks of yardage against this defense and many first downs mean many clock stoppages. They have averaged 40.3 ppg in their last three meetings with this defense and that is with rushing for 430.3 ypg in those games. The Rams have been a good offensive team at home where they have averaged 30.0 ppg so far, plus the Rams have averaged 32.8 ppg in their last four games against the Falcons. I will look for both teams to have some fun on offense and we tie a nice little ribbon around this pick with the fact that Over is 7-0 the last seven meetings between these teams here in Fort Collins.

Prediction: Over 63.5
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.