Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#389 Florida -7 vs.
#390 Missouri 48
Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 12:00pm EST
Written by Chris Kubala



#389 University of Florida
#390 University of Missouri


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It’s a matchup of teams from the SEC East out in the Show-Me State. The #10 Florida Gators are on the road as they travel to face the Missouri Tigers Saturday afternoon. Florida walloped Vanderbilt 56-0 at home in their previous contest last Saturday. Missouri was blanked 27-0 on the road by #6 Georgia in their previous contest last Saturday. The Tigers lead the all-time regular-season series and have won two straight in addition to four of the last six meetings. In the most recent matchup, it was Missouri rolling to a 38-17 road win on November 3, 2018.

Florida Gators Look to Ride Defense to Another Victory

Florida beat Vanderbilt into submission last week to bounce back from their loss to Georgia the week before. The Gators recorded their third shutout of the season and improved to 5-2 in conference play and 8-2 overall for coach Dan Mullen. Florida scored two touchdowns in the second quarter after a scoreless opening stanza and then blew the game wide open with four third-quarter touchdowns to turn the game into a rout. The Gators racked up a 560-128 advantage in total offense, piled up 33 first downs while allowing 12 and forced three turnovers while committing a pair. Those numbers helped overshadow a 33:22 to 26:38 disadvantage in time of possession.

The Gators enter this one 25th in passing offense with 288.5 yards per contest and 105th in rushing offense with 131 yards per game this season. Florida is 37th in the FBS in scoring offense as they average 33.3 points per game while the team is 9th in scoring defense as they allow just 15 points per contest. Feleipe Franks is 54 of 71 passing for 698 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions plus 68 rushing yards and a score. He’s done for the year with a dislocated ankle with a fracture suffered against Kentucky. Kyle Trask is 160 of 239 passing for 2,011 yards with 19 touchdowns and six picks while Emory Jones is 19 of 31 for 172 yards and two scores while adding 152 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Lamical Perine leads the team with 111 carries for 504 yards and four scores on the season. Dameon Pierce is next in line with 40 carries for 262 yards and three touchdowns. Van Jefferson is second on the Gators with 32 receptions for 398 yards and four scores. Kyle Pitts has a team-leading 42 receptions for 528 yards plus five scores while Trevon Grimes (27 grabs, 404 yards, three TD), Josh Hammond (22 catches, 262 yards, TD) and Freddie Swain (29 grabs, 430 yards, five TD) are next in line. Evan McPherson has hit all 38 extra point attempts and is nine of 11 on field goals with a long of 48. Chris Howard hit all four of his extra point tries and hasn’t attempted a field goal this season.

Missouri Tigers Try to Reverse Recent Struggles

Missouri started the season 5-1 but has dropped three straight games after getting blanked by Georgia on the road in their last game. Things don’t get any easier for the Tigers here as they have to head into the swamp to face the Gators. Missouri has been outscored 77-21 in their three-game slide. The Tigers gave up a score just 4:17 into the game and that was all that Georgia would need in the game. Missouri had two drives reach Georgia territory: they threw an interception from the Bulldogs’ 24-yard line and then reached the one on another drive before turning it over on downs in the fourth quarter. The Tigers were outgained 339-198, gave up 17 first downs while picking up 11 and lost the time of possession battle 35:27 to 24:53 in the game. Missouri turned the ball over once while failing to record a takeaway.

The Tigers are 68th in the nation in passing offense with 233.4 yards per game on the year while they are 60th in rushing offense with 169.4 yards per contest. Missouri is 71st in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up 28.2 points per game and the team stands 19th in scoring defense by limiting opposing teams to 19.1 points per contest. Kelly Bryant has completed 140 of 225 passes for 1,845 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions while adding 205 yards and a score on the ground. Taylor Powell is 21 of 48 for 192 yards plus an interception while Connor Bazelak is eight of 12 for 64 yards this season. Larry Rountree III leads the Tigers on the ground with 139 carries for 668 yards and eight scores while Tyler Badie contributes 83 carries for 361 yards plus two touchdowns and Dawson Downing chips in 36 carries for 225 yards plus a score as other backs in the system. Johnathon Johnson leads the Tigers with 29 receptions for 294 yards this season. Albert Okwuegbunam (22 receptions, 280 yards, six TD), Badie (25 grabs, 314 yards, three TD) and Jonathan Nance (23 catches, 352 yards, three TD) are good targets as well. Tucker McCann is 29 of 32 on extra point attempts and 11 of 17 on field goal tries this season with a long of 52.

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Missouri expects to have Bryant back under center this week after he missed the Georgia game with a strained hamstring. The thing is, the Tigers simply haven’t been good lately, regardless of who is under center. The team has lost three straight games and totaled 21 points in that span. Now Missouri has to face a Florida team that has made life extremely difficult for opposing offenses. The Gators have three shutouts on the season and held two other teams to 13 points or less. Florida’s defense has forced 21 turnovers on the season and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Missouri cough up a couple. The Gators have momentum and they’ve played better than the Tigers of late. Take Florida on the road.

Prediction: Florida Gators -7

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This one features a pair of pretty solid defenses when you get right down to it. As we said, Florida has three shutouts on the year and has forced 21 turnovers this season. That has helped overcome an offensive that has turned it over 17 times themselves on the year. The Gators' defense is a top-10 scoring defense in the FBS and will challenge Missouri, no matter who they have under center, to put points on the board. Missouri is no slouch either, ranking 19th in scoring defense even with their offense doing next to nothing of late. The Tigers hold opposing quarterbacks to a 48.8 percent completion percentage on the season, so Florida may have to dust off their lightly used, ineffective run game. Can Missouri pull an upset at home?

The under is 4-1 in the Gators' last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Missouri is 4-0 in their last four after a straight up win, 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. This is one of those games where 24 points should be enough to get a victory: look for the under here.

Prediction: Under 50.5

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.