Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#347 New Mexico vs.
#348 Boise State
Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 10:15pm EST
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#347 University of New Mexico
#348 Boise State University
2-7
8-1
3-6
5-4
4-5
5-4
23
35
35
22

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The #19 Boise State Broncos will host the New Mexico Lobos in an MWC tilt Saturday night from Albertsons Stadium. The New Mexico Lobos are looking for any bright spots they can find as a rough season winds down. They have only won two games with those wins occurring against non-FBS opponent Sam Houston State and a win against New Mexico State. The Lobos stand at 0-5 on the road this season which included a 21-10 loss to Nevada in their latest action on November 2nd.

The Boise State Broncos are in control of first place in the MWC Mountain. The Broncos feature a perfect 5-0 conference record with only three games to go. They have won two straight games which included a narrow 20-17 overtime home win against Wyoming on Saturday. The Broncos are a perfect 5-0 on their home field, and they climbed two spots to #19 in this week’s AP top 25 rankings. #1 QB Hank Bachmeier did not play last week but is expected to return in this one. Boise State posted a convincing 45-14 road win against New Mexico last season.

New Mexico Charged with Six Straight Defeat

The New Mexico Lobos have dropped six consecutive games. This will be an emotional night for this squad after last week’s game against Air Force was postponed due to the tragic death of defensive lineman Nahje Flowers. The Lobos are also still searching for their first conference win. They were competitive in a 21-10 road loss to Nevada in their latest game. Tevaka Tuioti is starting to play better, collecting over 500 passing yards in his last two games. The sophomore QB has accumulated 1250 passing yards with a 7:6 TD to INT ratio on the season.

The Lobos feature a strong running game led by Ahmari Davis. The senior RB has tallied a combined 280 rushing yards in his last two games, and he has accrued 823 rushing yards. New Mexico leans on Jordan Kress in the air. The junior WR has made at least four catches in three straight games, and he has 449 receiving yards. The Lobos offense will need to generate some offense in the air considering the Broncos stifling rush defense.

The New Mexico defense has struggled most of the season. They especially have issues defending the pass with the 130th ranked pass defense, but they can stop the run with a rush defense that is placed 57th overall. The Lobos are scoring an average of 23.4 points, placing them down at 103rd in the FBS. They are allowing an average of 35.8 points, positioning them 120th overall.

#19 Boise State Remains Perfect in Conference Play

The #21 Boise State Broncos are the only team in the MWC that has yet to lose a conference game. The Broncos have rebounded from their week nine loss to BYU by registering two straight wins. Their outstanding defense was on display in their 20-17 overtime home win against Wyoming on Saturday night. The Broncos started backup QB Chase Cord in place of an injured Hank Bachmeier in Saturday’s win. The good news is Bachmeier is expected to return to action this week. The freshman QB has a ton of talent and he has accrued 1760 passing yards with a 9:4 TD to INT ratio. I expect him to attempt several passes against a weak New Mexico defense

The Broncos ground game can also be a threat. George Holani has rushed for over 250 yards in his last three games, and he has tallied 619 rushing yards on the season. Look out for John Hightower in this one. The senior WR should find plenty of open field against a weak secondary. Hightower has accumulated 630 receiving yards on the year. The Broncos should return to their elite form this week with Bachmeier back at QB.

The Boise State defense has been inconsistent at times. They squandered 42 points to San Jose State a few weeks ago and rebounded against Wyoming last week. They stand 64th against the pass and 24th against the run. The Broncos are currently averaging 35.4 points, good for 26th in the FBS. They are holding opponents to 22.7 points, placing them 39th overall.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I expect Boise State to come through with a convincing home win. Broncos #1 QB Hank Bachmeier is expected to play and I expect a big offensive performance. New Mexico has an awful pass defense that is pegged last in the entire of FBS. They are surrendering a remarkable 340 passing yards per game, and Boise State features three talented receivers with over 400 yards on the season.

Furthermore, the Broncos defense should have no problem silencing a weak Lobos offense. New Mexico relies on their good rushing offense to generate yards, however, Boise State features an elite rush defense that is holding opponents to 118 rushing yards per game, good for 24th in the FBS. New Mexico hasn’t been competitive in their losses, losing by at least 11 points in each of their last five defeats.

Prediction: Boise State Broncos

Full-Game Total Pick

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I am selecting the over in this one. Boise State should pour on the points which should lead to the over. This New Mexico team surrendered 45 points to Hawaii a few weeks ago, and they have also allowed 52 points to New Mexico State and 66 points against Notre Dame. The Broncos should do big damage both in the air and on the ground in this one. The over has converted in five of the Broncos’ last seven games against a team with a losing record.

In addition, while I don’t expect big points from the Lobos, they should be good for a few scores.  They have surpassed 20 points in three out of their last five games, and the over is 9-3 in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The over on the Boise State team total which can be found on PointsBet is a solid play. The Broncos usually exploit poor defensive teams. They have scored at least 38 points in four out of their last seven games. Last week’s 20 point performance was misleading because backup QB Chase Cord played the whole game, and Wyoming has a great defense. New Mexico has a terrible defense that will be exploited.

Prediction: Boise State Team Total Over

Half-Time Total Bet

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I am opting for the under on the halftime total. Neither side has done a whole lot in the first half recently. Boise State is only averaging 11.3 points in the first half in their last three games, and New Mexico has only averaged 3.3 points in the first half in their last three. The Broncos are a strong second-half team where they are averaging 19.1 points, good for 10th in the FBS.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.