Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#381 Oklahoma -10.5 vs.
#382 Baylor 67.5
Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 7:30pm EST
Written by Chris Kubala

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#381 University of Oklahoma
#382 Baylor University
8-1
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It’s a major matchup in the Big 12 down in the Lone Star State with first place in the conference up for grabs. The #9 Oklahoma Sooners are on the road as they travel to face the #12 Baylor Bears Saturday night. Oklahoma bounced back from a loss to Kansas State as they edged Iowa State 42-41 at home last Saturday. Baylor survived against TCU, prevailing 29-23 in triple overtime on the road to remain unbeaten last Saturday. The Sooners lead the all-time series between the teams 24-3 and have taken the last four meetings, including a 66-33 home victory in the most recent matchup on September 29, 2018.

Oklahoma Sooners Seek to Knock Baylor From Unbeaten Ranks

Oklahoma did just enough to survive against Iowa State and avoid a second straight defeat. The Sooners enter this one second in the Big 12 with a 5-1 record: a fifth straight win over Baylor would give them the top spot in the conference. Oklahoma led 14-0 in the first quarter, 35-14 at the half and 42-21 after three quarters before running out of steam. The Sooners gave up two touchdowns in the final four minutes and needed an interception by Parnell Motley on Iowa State’s potential game-winning two-point conversion with 24 seconds to play. Oklahoma racked up a 499-477 advantage in total offense despite losing the first down battle (26-24), the time of possession (32:39 to 27:21) and the turnover battle as they committed a pair without forcing one in the contest.

The Sooners are 5th in the nation in passing offense with 338.1 yards per game and 13th as they average 249.2 yards per game on the ground this season. Oklahoma is 2nd in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up 48.4 points per contest while the team is 50th in the nation in scoring defense by allowing 25 points per game. Jalen Hurts, who transferred from Alabama, is 151 of 206 passing for 2,742 yards with 24 touchdowns and four interceptions: he leads the team with 869 yards and 15 scores on the ground. Tanner Mordecai is 16 of 26 for 207 yards and two scores while Spencer Rattler is six of eight for 73 yards and a score. Trey Sermon has 54 carries for 385 yards plus four scores while Rhamondre Stevenson (40 carries, 369 yards, five TD) and Kennedy Brooks (63 carries, 515 yards, three TD) are also in the mix on the ground. CeeDee Lamb leads the team with 44 receptions for 983 yards and 13 scores. Charleston Rambo (27 receptions, 574 yards, five TD) and Jadon Haselwood (15 receptions, 231 yards, TD) are next in line for the Sooners. Gabe Brkic is 33 of 33 on extra points and 10 of 10 on field goals with a long of 50 this season while Calum Sutherland is 23 of 23 on extra points and two of four on field goals with a long of 32.

Baylor Bears Look to Remain Unbeaten

Baylor had to go to triple overtime on the road but managed to escape with the victory over TCU to remain unbeaten on the year. The Bears try to remain unbeaten and climb in the CFP rankings as they take on the Sooners here. Baylor found themselves down 9-0 at the half but rallied to tie the game with 36 seconds left in regulation. Neither team found the end zone in regulation but the teams combined for five touchdowns in the extra session. Charlie Brewer’s four-yard touchdown pass to Denzel Mims in the +third overtime proved to be the difference in the contest. Baylor overcame getting outgained 308-294 and losing the time of possession 30:24 to 29:36 in the game. The Bears did own a 22-18 edge in first downs and forced three TCU turnovers while committing two in the contest.

The Bears enter this contest 36th in the nation in passing offense with 271.3 yards per game and 41st in rushing as they average 188.2 yards per contest on the ground. Baylor stands 26th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 35.3 points per game while they are 17th in scoring defense by allowing only 19 points per contest. Charlie Brewer is 177 of 263 passing for 2,338 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 211 yards plus seven scores on the ground. Gerry Bohanon is 10 of 15 for 104 yards and a score plus 194 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. John Lovett is the team’s leading ground gainer with 85 carries for 532 yards plus four scores. JaMycal Hasty (79 carries, 461 yards, four TD) and Trestan Ebner (34 carries, 163 yards, two TD) are solid options in the ground game. In the aerial attack, Denzel Mims leads the team with 44 grabs for 675 yards plus eight touchdowns this season. Tyquan Thornton (34 receptions, 612 yards, three TD), R.J. Sneed (31 catches, 352 yards, three TD) and Chris Platt (16 grabs, 182 yards, TD) are solid options as well. John Mayers has hit all 35 extra points and nine of 12 field goals with a long of 51 this season. Noah Rauschenberg is four of four on extra points and missed his lone field goal try.

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This is a big-time matchup for both teams. Oklahoma has been shaky the last couple weeks, losing to Kansas State before hanging on by their fingernails to edge Iowa State last week. Baylor is looking to maintain their perfect record. The Bears have won a couple of games in overtime this season but they haven’t faced an offense that is as explosive as Oklahoma’s. Baylor is going to have their hands full with the Sooners offensive attack and it’s going to be a stiff challenge for their terrific defense. In the end, there are a lot of experienced players on the Sooners side who have stepped up in big games, none more than Hurts, who helped Alabama win the SEC title game last season and has a national championship on his resume. Oklahoma has too many weapons to rein in and they get the nod here.

Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners -10

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We know that both teams have prolific offenses. Oklahoma is second in the nation in points per game and has put up at least 41 points in eight of their nine games this season. In the lone game they fell short of that mark, they still put up 34 against Texas in the Red River Shootout. Baylor has five games with at least 31 points and a sixth with 29 this season. The Bears have been fortunate to remain unbeaten as they have won several close games. Baylor beat TCU last week in triple overtime: they also own wins by three over West Virginia, by two over Iowa State, by eight over rice and by three in multiple overtimes against Texas Tech. Will the Bears' luck run out here?

The over is 6-0 in the Sooners' last 6 games in November, 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Baylor has seen the over go 4-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The teams have gone over the number in five of the last six meetings at Baylor: look for the shootout tendencies to continue in this contest.

Prediction: Over 67.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.