Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#379 TCU -3.5 vs.
#380 Texas Tech 56.5
Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 12:00pm EST
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#379 Texas Christian University
#380 Texas Tech University


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In an important intra-state rivalry game, the TCU Horned Frogs visits the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Battle for the Saddle Trophy. Both teams are 2-3 in Big 12 play and need to win two of their remaining three games to qualify for a bowl game.

After a long hiatus, this is the third straight year that the trophy will be handed out to the winner. Each team has held the trophy with the Red Raiders being the current holder as a result of their 17-14 win last year. TTU leads the all-time series 33-26-3 which includes posting an 18-7-3 record at home.

TCU road weary?

TCU is on the road for the third time in the past five weeks and for the fourth occasion over the past seven contests. TCU still has to go to Oklahoma next week before finishing at home against West Virginia. The Horned Frogs, who are coming off a 29-23 triple-overtime loss home loss to Baylor, have lost their last three contests away from home. TCU is 1-3 on the road, where they have been outscored 120-102.

Freshman dual-threat quarterback Max Duggan has been up-and-down this year, although he showed some grit and toughness in the loss to Baylor. Duggan, who fought through an injury on the middle finger of his throwing hand, completed 43.8% of his passes for 140 yards along with one touchdown and three interceptions against the Bears. Sewo Olonilua surpassed the 1,500 rushing mark for his career against Baylor for he racked up 79 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was Olonilua’s team-high seventh of the season.6-4 sophomore tight end Pro Wells has been more involved in the offense the past two games reeling in eight passes for 108 yards and a touchdown.

TCU’s No. 1 ranked Big 12 defense was once again excellent against Baylor as the Horned Frogs limited the Bears to just 294 total yards of total offense while recording three sacks. Ben Wilson and Garrett Wallow led the way with 11 tackles apiece. Wallow has now recorded double-digit tackles for a second straight game and the fifth time this season. Meanwhile, Wilson has recorded 15 of his 18 tackles over the last two games. Ochaun Mathis also had a big day as he posted the first multi-sack game of his career and had a career-best 2.5 tackles for losses.

Texas Tech aiming for first winning streak since beginning

Texas Tech snapped a three-game losing streak with its 38-17 victory over West Virginia last week. The Red Raiders struck early and often in the game. The Red Raiders, aided by two Mountaineer turnovers, scored on their first five offensive possessions and took a 35-14 halftime lead. TTU forced four turnovers in the game, with three coming on interceptions.

Quarterback Jett Duffey continued his recent stretch of strong play, completing 24 of 34 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown for the game. Sophomore Ta'Zhawn Henry made the most out of his season-high opportunities against WVU as he produced a season-high 151 total yards and two touchdowns, including 95 yards from scrimmage. Henry, who serves as the Red Raiders' primary main kick returner, rushed for 67 yards on 22 carries and caught four passes for 28 yards. Both of his touchdowns came via red zone runs. Meanwhile, leading rusher SaRoderick Thompson was held to a season-low 27 rushing yards on 11 carries but he still reached the end zone twice.

Sophomore wide receiver Dalton Rigdon hauled in three passes for a career-high 107 yards versus WVU, including an 81-yard catch and run touchdown. Texas Tech is 3-1 at home this season, outscoring its opponents 152-88 there. Leading receiver T.J. Vasher missed the game against WVU as he served a one-game suspension while Thompson suffered an ankle injury during the game. Both players are listed as questionable for this week's game.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


This projects to be an outstanding matchup. TCU tries to control the tempo with its running attack while relying on its defense. On the other hand, Texas Tech would rather air it out as the Red Raiders throw the ball on slightly over 54% of their plays.

I am taking Texas Tech to win straight up. The key for the Red Raiders will be to get off to a fast start, they are outscoring their opponents 72-27, in the first quarter. Tech has shut out its opponents in the first quarter in six of nine games thus far.

There are several reasons that I like TTU. One of them is that Duffey, who can beat teams with his legs and arm, has played well since taking over the starting quarterback job -- completing nearly 70% of his passes for over 330 yards along with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. While Duffey struggled throwing the ball against TCU last year, he did rush for 86 yards and one touchdown. Part of Duffey's success this season has been due to his increased accuracy as well as the fact that he is spreading the ball around with 11 different players recording seven or more receptions on the season. Another reason why Duffey is thriving is that the Red Raiders 'offensive line has been exceptional, The Red Raiders O-line has not allowed a sack in the last two games and has permitted a sack on just 2.34% of its pass plays. So, I expect that Duffey will have plenty of time to throw on Saturday. TCU's pass rush is ranked 73rd in the nation.

I also like Texas Tech's defense in this matchup as linebacker Jordyn Brooks and safety Douglas Coleman are playing at elite levels. The Red Raiders play an attacking style of defense, which suits both Brooks, who averages over 10 tackles a game with two being for losses, and Coleman, who has an NCAA high-eight interceptions, well. TTU's defense ranks 13th in the nation with 18 turnovers, 18th in tackles for losses (7.2) as well as 66th with 2.11 sacks. Meanwhile, TCU has turned the ball over 17 times, including eight interceptions this year, with seven picks occurring over the last three games. The Horned Frogs are also surrendering a sack on 7.75% of its pass plays, which ranks 96th in the nation. TCU turned the ball over three times against TCU last year.

Prediction: Texas Tech +3

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


I am going with the over here. During Big 12 play, TCU is averaging nearly 30 points while the Horned Frogs are allowing over 29 points a game. In the same token, Texas Tech is scoring over 30 points during conference play and giving up 35. Additionally, four of TCU's six league games have totaled at least 56 points, and five of Texas Tech's six contests have also reached the total.

Over is 6-1 in TCU's last seven conference games as well as their last seven contests overall. The over also has hit in 10 of Texas Tech's last 12 games after the Red Raiders have held their opponents to less than 20 points in their previous game.

Prediction: Under 55.5

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