Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#377 Texas 66.5 vs.
#378 Iowa State -6.5
Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 3:30pm EST
Written by David Hess

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#377 University of Texas
#378 Iowa State
6-3
5-4
4-5
6-3
6-3
5-4
37
36
30
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College Football action on Saturday afternoon and a pair of teams from the Big 12 Conference will square off as the Texas Longhorns grapple with the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. Texas won this game at home last year by a score of 24-10. The Longhorns come in at 4-2 in league play and 6-3 overall while the Cyclones are at 3-3 within the Big 12 and 5-4 overall.

Texas Squeezes Past Kansas State

The Texas Longhorns have gon loss, win, loss, win in their last four games and they will try and break that trend with a win in this one. Texas enters this game off a hard-fought 27-24 home win over Kansas State. It was the first game in their last six that they allowed less than 30 points and the defense was expected to be a strength of this team. A big issue for them has been a pass defense that ranks 124th in the nation. The Wildcats are 109th in the nation in passing and yet Texas allowed them to pass for 253 yards in the game. That may not bode well in this one as they are about to face the 8th ranked passing team in the nation.

The Longhorns have not had many issues on the offensive side of the ball as they rank 20th in total offense, 16th in passing, 51st in rushing and 14th in scoring, putting up 37.8 ppg. The Longhorns rolled up 477 yards of total offense against the Wildcats and they were balanced as Texas had 214 yards on the ground and 263 yards through the air. Sam Ehlinger has had a solid season so far as he has thrown for 2641 yards with 24 TDs and just eight INTs. He faced the Cyclones last year and hit 12 of 15 passes for 137 yards with a TD and no INTs in the 24-10 win. Ehlinger will look to have a solid game against a Cyclone defense that is 71st in the nation against the pass. At 4-2 in league play, the Longhorns still have a shot at the Big 12 Title game but they must go at least 2-1 in their last three games and the Sooners have to lose out. It is a long shot for them, especially with this road game and a road game against Baylor on deck.

Cyclones Are Seeking Bowl Eligibility

The Iowa State Cyclones have had a bit of an up-and-down season this year. They started at 2-2 on the year, with their two losses being by one point to Iowa and two points to TCU. They then rattled off three wins in a row, outscoring their foes by at least 10 points in each game. Iowa State followed that three-game win streak up with a two-game losing streak and here they are at 5-4 on the year. Iowa State lost the two games by seven points and one point. Their four losses on the year have now been by 11 total points. Iowa State is at 5-4 on the year and will be seeking bowl eligibility in this one. The defense had been solid for the Cyclones this year but it has broken down of late as they have allowed 33.3 ppg over their last three games. That is on the heels of allowing just 20.8 ppg over their first six games.

Iowa State is off a tough 42-41 loss to Oklahoma on the road. They were 15 point dogs in the game. The defense allowed 499 yards in the game, including 226 yards on the ground and 237 yards through the air. Texas is pretty balanced on offense and could give this defense fits. Iowa State is 71st in the nation against the pass and the Longhorns know how to toss the ball around the field. Iowa state pilled up 477 yards against the Sooners and Brock Purdy had a huge game as he threw for 282 yards and five TDs with no INTs while also rushing for 55 yards and a TD. He has a shot at a huge game in this one as the longhorns have one of the worst pass defenses in the nation. Purdy has thrown for 2849 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs on the year. He was just 10/23 for 130 yards with no TDs and an INT in last year's loss to the Longhorns.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I will look for the Cyclones to take this. They have struggled on defense of late, but they still rate the edge in that department. The offense is strong for the Cyclones, especially their passing game which ranks 8th in the nation and will be facing a Texas defense that ranks 124th against the pass. Brock Purdy had a bad game against the Longhorns last year, but he will have a far better game in this one as Iowa State gets revenge for that game and also clinches bowl eligibility with their 6th win of the year. Iowa State is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight-up loss and that is the clincher.

Prediction: Iowa State -7

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Last year's game put up just 34 points. this game will not be that low scoring, but I see it coming in under the total. Both teams have struggled on defense of late and I will look for the defenses to show some pride in this one. I do realize how good the offenses are and how good each team is at throwing the ball but this pick is more about the obvious. It is way too obvious that this should be a high scoring game and those games tend to not deliver. This is also a huge game for both teams and those tend to be low scoring. The Under is 13-4 in Texas' last 17 games on grass and 7-0-1 in Iowa State's last eight games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Prediction: Under 65.5
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.