Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#345 Troy -7 vs.
#346 Texas State 61
Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 3:00pm EST
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#345 Troy University
#346 Texas State University
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The Texas State Bobcats will host the Troy Trojans in a Sun Belt battle Saturday afternoon from Bobcat Stadium. The Trojans registered a 49-28 home win over Georgia Southern last week, and the Bobcats are coming off a 30-28 home win over South Alabama in their latest action. Troy defeated Texas State by a 12-7 score last season.

Troy Scores Season-High 49 Points

The Troy Trojans will be targeting their first two-game winning streak of the season in this one. The Trojans also need a win in two of their final three games to secure bowl eligibility. Troy’s offense is a strength which was evident in their 49-28 home win against Georgia Southern last week to improve to 2-3 in Sun Belt play. Kaleb Barker continues to shine. The senior QB has tallied at least 330 passing yards in three consecutive games, and he has accumulated 2,806 passing yards with a 24:7 TD to INT ratio.

Troy’s rushing offense isn’t nearly as productive as their passing game, although DK Billingsley can do damage. The sophomore RB has eclipsed 100 rushing yards four times this season, and he has 779 rushing yards on the year. I expect Billingsley to go after a weak Bobcats rush defense.

Watch for Kaylon Geiger in this one. The junior WR is very difficult to contain, racking up 255 receiving yards in his last two games, and he is up to 741 receiving yards. The Trojans offense is among the best in the Sun Belt, and they have scored at least 30 points in all but one game.

The Troy defense was better last week, but overall it has been an issue. They especially have trouble defending the pass, while their rush defense is decent, placing 50th in the FBS. The Trojans are scoring an average of 36.3 points, placing them 22nd overall. They are allowing an average of 32.1 points, pegging them 98th in the country. Troy is 1-3 on the road.

Texas State Snaps Three Game Slide

The Texas State Bobcats need a win in all three games to achieve bowl eligibility. The Bobcats snapped a three-game slide with a 30-28 home win against last-place South Alabama last week in a game that the Bobcats as seven-point favorites. Tyler Vitt has started the last three games in place of Gresch Jensen who is dealing with a concussion. Vitt tossed three TD’s last week along with a remarkable 373 passing yards, and the sophomore QB has 888 passing yards with a 6:8 TD to INT ratio on the year. Jensen has accused 1291 passing yards with five touchdowns against six picks, and he remains questionable. Even if healthy, chances are Vitt has earned another start.

The Bobcats don’t have much of a running game. They stand down at 129th in rushing yards per game. Caleb Twyford is actually a wide receiver who leads the team with 457 rushing yards. Twyford practiced on Tuesday but remains questionable. Texas State spreads its passing offense among several receivers. They have five players with at least 20 receptions led by Hutch White with 464 yards. The Bobcats offense has scored 14 or fewer points in three out of their last four games.

The Texas State defense has posted a few solid performances but hasn’t been able to shut down opponents with consistency. They feature a great pass defense which ranks 18th in the FBS, so opponents will run the ball against a rush defense that is placed down at 122nd. The Bobcats are scoring an average of 17.8 points, ranking them 121st in the FBS. They are allowing an average of 29.9 points, pegging them 84th overall. Texas State owns a 3-2 home record.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I like the home team Texas State in this one.  Texas State has won three out of their last four home games, and I expect them to contain the Troy offense. Troy features a pass-heavy offense that ranks 10th in the FBS, however, Texas State features an elite pass defense that is holding opponents to only 186 passing yards per game, good for 18th in the country.

Furthermore, the Bobcats' greatest strength on the offensive side is their passing game which is averaging 242 passing yards per game, and Troy continues to squander significant passing yards. Their pass defense is placed down at 111th in the country. Texas State should be able to break through against a poor defense and keep this one very close.

Prediction: Texas State Bobcats

Full-Game Total Pick

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This contest should yield plenty of points. Troy’s defense is awful. They have surrendered an average of 39 points in their last three games, and the Bobcats are coming off a solid 30 point performance against South Alabama in their previous game. The over is 4-1 in Troy’s last five conference games.

In addition, Troy features a productive offense. They have scored at least 33 points in each of their last four games and the only offense they have neutralized in Sun Belt play is a very low scoring South Alabama team. The over is 7-3 in the Trojans’ last 10 games overall, and it should cash again in this one.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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I am counting on a big performance from the Texas State offense. Troy has conceded an average of 43 points in their last three road games. Texas State’s QB’s are connecting on over 60% of their pass attempts and they will pass more than run. They will no doubt attempt to exploit the Trojans' poor pass defense which should translate to points.

Prediction: Texas State Team Total Over

Half-Time Side Pick

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I am siding with Troy on the halftime line. Troy is very productive in the first half where they are averaging 18.9 points, good for 21st in the country, while Texas State has issues in the opening half where they are posting only 8.9 points. Troy is having trouble defensively in the second half right now as they have surrendered an average of 19 points in their last three games, and I expect a big second half from Texas State.

Prediction: Troy
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.