Check out our best plays in this week’s Fab Five:
The struggling Florida State Seminoles will host the #22 Boston College Eagles in an ACC battle Saturday afternoon from Doak Campbell Stadium. The Eagles are coming off a 27-7 home loss to #2 Clemson, and the Seminoles were handled 42-13 against Notre Dame in their previous contest. Boston College recorded a 35-3 home win over Florida State last season.
Brown Injured in Eagles Loss to Clemson
The #22 Boston College Eagles had a three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-7 home loss to #2 Clemson last week. Eagles #1 QB Anthony Brown was injured in the first quarter and did not return. The sophomore QB is currently listed as day-to-day with an abdominal injury. Eagles’ backup QB EJ Perry completed 12 of 21 passes for 98 yards against Clemson. Head coach Steve Addazio stated he assumes Perry will see more reps this week. Perry has tallied 277 passing yards with two TD’s and zero picks in limited action this season.
Eagles leading rusher A.J. Dillon struggled against the Clemson defense, recording only 39 rushing yards. Dillon isn’t quite at 100% as he is playing with an ankle injury. The sophomore RB is a big part of the Eagles offense, accumulating 936 rushing yards on an average of 5.3 yards per carry. Kobay White tallied 65 receiving yards against Clemson last week, and the sophomore WR has tallied a team-leading 379 receiving yards on the season. The Boston College offense has scored over 30 points in two out of their last four games.
— BC Football (@BCFootball) November 12, 2018
The Eagles defense is playing well. They were able to contain the Clemson offense last week by allowing only two offensive touchdowns. The Eagles have allowed 21 or fewer points in three out of their last four games. Boston College is currently averaging 34.2 points, ranking them 33rd in the FBS. They are conceding an average of 24.4 points, pegging them 50th overall.
Seminoles Crushed by Notre Dame in Third Straight Loss
The Florida State Seminoles will need a win in each of their last two games to reach bowl eligibility. Their poor play resumed in a rough 42-13 road loss to Notre Dame last week to extend their losing streak to three games. Deondre Francois struggled, completing 48% of his passes for 216 yards with zero TD’s against one INT. The junior QB hasn’t found a rhythm this season, recording 2255 passing yards with a subpar 13:8 TD to INT ratio.
Seminoles’ leading rusher Cam Akers contributed with 63 rushing yards last week, and the sophomore RB has only rushed for 99 yards in his last three games. Akers has tallied 559 yards on the season. Nyqwan Murray had one of his best games of the season against Notre Dame, racking up 79 receiving yards, and he is up to 650 yards on the year.
— FSU Football (@FSUFootball) November 13, 2018
The Florida State offense has been out of sync in their last three games, and they are only averaging 355 total yards per game. The Seminoles defense has been awful in three straight games against three ranked opponents. They are effective against the run, although their secondary has been non-existent for a good portion of the season. Florida State owns a 3-2 home record, and they are only averaging 22.7 points, ranking them 113th overall. They are allowing an average of 31.6 points, pegging them 93rd in the FBS.
The Florida State Seminoles are:
- 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- under is 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.
The Boston College Eagles are:
- under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 November games.
- under is 10-3 in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.
- under is 11-4 in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking Florida State in this one. The Seminoles need to win their two remaining games to become bowl eligible, and I expect them to play with desperation in this one. Boston College generates a good portion of their offense on the ground, and defending the run is one area FSU has excelled this season. They are holding opponents to an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game, and Eagles’ head coach Steve Addazio stated RB AJ Dillon is nowhere near 100%.
Furthermore, while the Seminoles have struggled to score points, they feature a potent passing game that is averaging 275 passing yards per game, pegging them 27th in the FBS, and the Eagles pass defense is average.
Prediction: Florida State Seminoles
Full-Game Total Pick
The under is a solid play in this one. The Eagles were able to limit Clemson to 27 points last week, and Florida State is only averaging 21.5 points in ACC play this season. Also, the under is 10-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 14 games against a team with a losing record.
In addition, Eagles’ backup QB EJ Perry is expected to see a good portion of the action, and Eagles RB AJ Dillon isn’t at 100% due to a nagging ankle injury. The under is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last five games, and it should hit again in this one.
Full-Game Prop Bet
The under on the Eagles team total is a solid play. Boston College backup QB AJ Perry is expected to see a good chunk of playing time, and he has very limited experience. In addition, AJ Dillon is playing with an ankle injury and he has only rushed for a combined 135 yards in his last two games.
Prediction: Boston College Team Total: Under
Half-Time Side Pick
The Eagles on the halftime line is worth a look. The Seminoles defense has struggled in the opening half recently, conceding an average of 29 points in their last three games. In addition, Florida State is only averaging 10.1 points in the first half this season.
Prediction: Boston College
Half-Time Total Bet
The under on the halftime total is a solid play. FSU is only averaging 6.7 points in the first half over their last three games. Also, the Eagles have not generated any significant points in the first half either, averaging only 10.3 points in the opening half in their last three contests.
Half-Time Prop Prediction
The under on the first quarter total is worth a look. The Seminoles have struggled to score in the first quarter as they are only averaging 3.9 points in the first quarter on the year. Also, the Seminoles are holding opponents to an average of only 5 points in the first quarter on their home field this season.
Prediction: First Quarter Total: Under