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Oregon State at No. 17 Washington
When and Where: Saturday, Nov. 17, Husky Stadium, Seattle, Wash., 4:30 p.m. EST.
Looking to keep up its end of the bargain to set up a winner-take-all Apple Cup showdown for the Pac-12 North title, 17th-ranked Washington hosts Oregon State in an intradivisional clash.
Beavers look to play spoiler in Seattle
Oregon State (2-8, 1-6 Pac-12 North) will miss out on a bowl game for the fifth straight year, leaving this game and next weekend’s “Civil War” versus archrival Oregon as its final two chances to wreak havoc in the division.
The Beavers have lost back-to-back games since their rally to stun Colorado on the road and are coming off a 48-17 loss at Stanford last weekend. Jake Luton had a pair of first-half touchdown passes, but the problem was Oregon State allowed four scoring tosses by K.J. Costello and allowed at least 20 points in the first half for the sixth straight game.
Capping off a 13-play drive.
— Oregon State Football (@BeaverFootball) November 11, 2018
Luton has thrown for 200 or more yards in his last four games, racking up seven TD passes with just two interceptions. Trevor Bradford, who had five catches for 120 yards and a score, has had 31 receptions for 321 yards in his last five games.
This contest will also be a homecoming for first-year coach Jonathan Smith, who served as Washington’s offensive coordinator from 2013-17 before taking over Oregon State this season. While the Beavers have improved offensively, they are still facing a Huskies defense that has allowed 300 passing yards just once this season.
“They are really talented players,” Bradford told the Oregonian. “But I ain’t going to be scared of them. USC had talented players, Ohio State. Everybody has talent.”
Oregon State has lost 12 straight games to AP Top 25 teams since upsetting then-No. 7 Arizona State in 2014. Two of those defeats have been to the Huskies in each of the last two seasons by a combined 83-24 margin.
Huskies focused on task at hand, not Washington State
It can be sarcastically argued that Washington’s bye last weekend came at an opportune time considering the Huskies (7-3, 5-2 North) only have to beat the Beavers to set up a high-stakes Apple Cup showdown at archrival and No. 8 Washington State on Nov. 23, but everyone around the two-time reigning Pac-12 North champions insist the only team that matters right now is Oregon State.
“No. Nope. We do not at all,” UW co-defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake told the Seattle Times about looking past the Beavers. “It is all hands on deck. We’ve been working on Oregon State for two weeks now, and what’s awesome is we’re way ahead at this point in our preparation. It is all in on beating Oregon State.”
Washington has alternated wins and losses in its last five games, but it has been dominant at home — the Huskies are 5-0 while outscoring teams by an average of 19.0 points while averaging 32.2 in those victories. Chris Petersen’s team went into its bye after holding off Stanford 27-23 on Nov. 3.
Jake Browning threw for a touchdown and ran for a second in the first quarter and Myles Gaskin added a second-quarter score en route to a season-high 148 rushing yards, but Washington was held to a pair of field goals in the second half while the Cardinal rallied late. Stanford got as far as the Washington 34-yard line, but Taylor Rapp intercepted a pass in the end zone on the game’s final play.
— Washington Football (@UW_Football) November 4, 2018
Gaskin, who topped 100 yards for the third time this season as Washington improved to 14-0 when he gets 22 or more carries, is barreling towards his fourth 1,000-yard season and enters this contest 174 yards from becoming just the 21st FBS player to reach 5,000.
In what will be his final home game, Gaskin will be looking to add to already strong numbers in his previous three games against Oregon State. He has topped 100 yards in all three contests and totaled 368 while averaging 6.6 yards per carry.
- 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. Pac-12 teams.
- 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of more than 10.5 points.
- 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams with a sub-.500 road record.
- The under is 8-2 in its last 10 games.
- The under is 5-1 in its last six games following a straight up win.
- The under is 7-2 in its last nine games as a favorite.
Oregon State is:
- 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.
- 6-2 ATS in its last eight games at Washington.
- The under is 6-2 in its last eight games at Washington.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
There are a few factors at play here, most notably the line just appears too large. Washington has not beaten any FBS opponent by more than 28 points and also not scored more than 35 points against any FBS opponent.
There is also the fact the Huskies are coming off a bye week, which means it will likely take a possession or two to get in sync on the offensive end. Additionally, it would not be surprising to see Gaskin get extensive touches in the first half as Washington tries to put the game away early to try and save some of its players for that short turnaround against Washington State.
Then there is the homecoming for Smith, whose players will likely be eager to please their coach in a venue that means something to him. There are just too many factors, even with Oregon State’s shaky defense, to put trust in Washington covering a five-touchdown spread.
Prediction: Pick: Oregon State +33
Full-Game Total Pick
This is a little tougher to call because the Beavers are so poor on defense. The best hope in taking the under is Oregon State continuing its trend of giving up 20-plus points in the first half with Washington holding the Beavers to seven or fewer points and the teams just playing out the string in the final quarter.
But Washington’s defense should be stout enough to keep the Beavers in check while winning comfortably without running up the score against its former offensive coordinator.
Prediction: Pick: UNDER 58.5 points
Half-Time Side Pick
The Huskies will look to take care of this game early, and that means letting Gaskin run through the Beavers defense. Washington has scored 21 points in two of its last three-game homes, but Oregon State’s slipshod defense is the swing vote for the first two quarters — the Beavers have yielded 231 points in the first half against FBS opponents.
Prediction: Pick: Washington -21
Half-Time Total Bet
Again, the Beavers have given up 231 first-half points to FBS teams this season. In the three Pac-12 road games, Oregon State has yielded 89 points in the first two quarters. With the expectation Washington will try to end this game quickly, it is not out of the realm of possibility for five scores and cover this number itself.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 32.5 points