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TCU vs. Baylor Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 11-17-2018

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#381 TCU
Horned Frogs -1
#382 Baylor
Bears 53.5

Saturday, November 17, 2018 at 12:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

TCU Horned Frogs

4 - 6

1-8
ATS
4-5
O/U
24
PPG
25
OPPG

Baylor Bears

5 - 5

5-5
ATS
5-4
O/U
29
PPG
33
OPPG

Betting Trends

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Check out our best plays in this week’s Fab Five:

The TCU Horned Frogs are 1-4 in their last five contests heading into a road date with the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium on Saturday afternoon. TCU’s woes most recently continued with a blowout loss to West Virginia. The Bears are also slumping, as they fell to 1-3 in their last four outings following last week’s setback against Iowa State.

Can’t feel the rhythm

TCU has been unable to find a rhythm on offense this season, perhaps due to a rotating carousel of parts on the line and also because of a recent quarterback change. Things only got worse for the Horned Frogs during a 47-10 loss to West Virginia this past weekend. Their point output was a season-low and they finished with a ridiculous negative-7 rushing yards, bringing their season-low total yardage to 222. Quarterback Mike Collins, who completed 22 of 37 passes for 229 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, was sacked four times and found himself under pressure seemingly all day. That marked his third start of the 2018 campaign.

“We just can’t get into a rhythm right now,” sophomore receiver Jalen Reagor lamented. “It’s no specific reason or specific person. It’s just we can’t get into a rhythm as an offense.”

“We have to do a better job with the pressure aspect of things,” head coach Gary Patterson explained. “The answer really is our whole group, not just the quarterback, all of us have to make more plays. When we get a chance to have a critical catch, you can’t drop it on third down. Runs, we’ve got to make sure we do things. We can’t hurt ourselves with penalties.”

TCU has scored 28 points or fewer in eight consecutive games, marking the first time this has happened since it compiled 1-10 mark in 1997.

Still Brewer’s crew despite brouhaha

Baylor defensive end Greg Roberts is suspended for the first half of Saturday’s game as punishment for a well-documented scuffle during a last week’s 28-14 loss at Iowa State. Roberts is second on the team in tackles for loss.

But there is plenty of good news for the Bears–or at least news that could have been bad but now isn’t. A contentious affair with the Cyclones also saw Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer get ejected following two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. One game during a fight between the two teams and Brewer incurred his second such penalty for complaining about a spot following a run.

Having Brewer on the field is obviously huge for Baylor. The sophomore from Austin, Tex. is coming off his best performance since throwing for 400 yards and two touchdowns in a Sept. 29 loss to Oklahoma. Against Iowa State, he went 26-of-36 for 288 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Brewer also racked up 72 yards on the ground on 12 keepers.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

The Horned Frogs started 2-0 and were looking good in the first half against fellow undefeated team Ohio State two months ago. Since getting overwhelmed by the Buckeyes in the second half of an eventual 40-28 loss, a reality check has hit TCU hard. The team is now saddled with a 4-6 record; 2-6 in its last eight for those counting. Because Baylor will have Brewer on the field for a full game, the Frogs’ woes are likely to continue.

Prediction: Baylor Bears

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

For the season, Collins is 75 for 134 (56 percent) with 1,045 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. Although he is mostly playing mistake-free football, TCU’s offense has not been explosive with Collins at the helm. The under is 7-2 in the Horned Frogs’ last nine on the road, 21-8 in their last 29 against SEC opposition, 9-3 in their last 12 November contests, and 11-5 in their last six on grass. Look for this one to stay under the total.

Prediction: Under

Ricky Dimon

A 2006 graduate of Davidson College, Ricky is a freelance sports writer based in Atlanta, Georgia. He has previously worked with various websites in the sports handicapping industry and is generally a fan of going with the hot hand while in most cases showing a willingness to take favorites and give the points. Beyond the four major sports, Ricky is an avid tennis fan—and writer—and covers the ATP Tour on a daily basis.

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