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The Arkansas State Red Wolves will host the UL Monroe Warhawks in a Sun Belt battle Saturday afternoon from Centennial Bank Stadium. The Warhawks recorded an easy 38-10 road win over South Alabama last week, and the Red Wolves cruised to a 44-16 road win over Coastal Carolina in their previous action. Arkansas State recorded a 67-50 road win over UL Monroe last season.
Warhawks Secure Bowl Eligibility
The UL Monroe Warhawks can clinch first place in the Sun Belt West with a win in this one. They continued their red-hot play with a 38-10 road win over South Alabama last week to become bowl eligible. Caleb Evans was outstanding, collecting 367 passing yards and two TD’s. The junior QB has tallied over 300 passing yards in two straight games, and he has tallied a total of 2450 passing yards with a 13:8 TD to INT ratio accompanied with 574 rushing yards. Warhawks’ #1 RB Derrick Gore only managed 20 rushing yards last week, and he has registered 565 rushing yards on the year. UL Monroe’s leading receiver Marcus Green has recorded at least 100 receiving yards in two out of his last four games, and he is up to 710 receiving yards on the year.
— Cole Dial (@dialcole13) November 11, 2018
The UL Monroe offense is in a rhythm, scoring at least 38 points in four consecutive games. The Warhawks defense has also been sharp in their four-game winning streak, and they have improved significantly after a rough start from a defensive perspective. UL Monroe stands at 3-3 on the road this season, and they are now averaging 27.4 points per game, ranking them 82nd overall. They are conceding 31.9 points, placing them 96th in the FBS.
Red Wolves Target Third Straight Win
The Arkansas State Red Wolves head into their final home game riding a two-game winning streak. They continued their productive offensive play with a 44-16 road win over Coastal Carolina last week to become bowl eligible. Justice Hansen was stellar, collecting 253 passing yards with four TD’s. The senior QB has tossed seven touchdown passes in his last two games, and he is up to 2650 passing yards with a 22:6 TD to INT ratio on the year. The Red Wolves also own a solid rushing offense led by Marcel Murray with 639 rushing yards and Warren Wand with 459 rushing yards. The Red Wolves feature two receivers with over 500 receiving yards. Kirk Merritt brought in a season-high 180 yards last week, and he has racked up 697 yards on the season. The Red Wolves offense has been unstoppable recently, scoring at least 38 points in four consecutive games.
The Arkansas State defense has excelled in two straight games. They limited Coastal Carolina to only 293 total yards last week including only 165 passing yards. The Red Wolves feature a stellar secondary, although they will give up yards on the ground. Arkansas State features a 4-1 home record and they are currently averaging 31.7 points, ranking them 46th in the FBS. They are conceding an average of 29.3 points, placing them 79th overall.
The Arkansas State Red Wolves are:
- 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
- 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after recording more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.
The UL Monroe Warhawks are:
- 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am siding with UL Monroe in this one. UL Monroe has been outstanding on both offense and defense in their current four game winning streak. They are averaging 37 points in their last four games, and they are up against an inconsistent defense. Arkansas State has allowed at least 35 points in three out of their last five games. In addition, the Warhawks feature a solid rushing offense, and they are up against a poor rush defense that is squandering an average of 210 rushing yards per game, pegging them down at 106th in the FBS.
Furthermore, the Warhawks pass defense has been outstanding, allowing less than 150 passing yards in three straight games, so I am confident they can contain the Red Wolves potent passing game.
Prediction: UL Monroe Warhawks
Full-Game Total Pick
This contest should feature plenty of scoring from both sides. Both teams are solid on offense and both have been very inconsistent on defense. UL Monroe has scored at least 38 points in three out of their last four games, and the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two team.
In addition, Arkansas State is also on a roll offensively, averaging 44 points in their last four games. The over is 4-1 in the Red Wolves’ last five home games against UL Monroe, and it should cash in again in this one.
Full-Game Prop Bet
The over on the Warhawks team total is a solid play. UL Monroe is executing both in the air and on the ground right now. QB Caleb Evans has accumulated 704 passing yards in his last two games, and the Warhawks top three RB’s are all averaging over five yards per carry. Also, the Arkansas State defense has not fared well against strong offensive opponents this season, and I expect a solid performance from the UL Monroe offense.
Prediction: Warhawks Team Total: Over
Half-Time Side Pick
I am staying with UL Monroe on the halftime line. The Warhawks defense has been outstanding in the first half as of late, limiting opponents to only nine points over their last three games. In addition, the Red Wolves first half defense has been subpar, conceding 14.8 points on the season.
Prediction: UL Monroe
Half-Time Total Bet
I expect plenty of offense in the opening half. UL Monroe has been outstanding in the first half, averaging a remarkable 22.7 points in their last three games. In addition, the Red Wolves are also putting up big points, averaging 20.7 points in the first half in their last three games.
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I am taking UL Monroe to score first. The Warhawks have been one of the more productive teams in the opening quarter this season, posting an average of 8.3 points in the first quarter, while Arkansas State is allowing an average of seven points in the first quarter.
Prediction: UL Monroe to Score First