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UNLV vs. Hawaii Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 11-17-2018

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#423 UNLV
Rebels 66.5
#424 Hawaii
Rainbow Warriors -6.5

Saturday, November 17, 2018 at 11:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

UNLV Rebels

3 - 7

5-5
ATS
6-3
O/U
28
PPG
38
OPPG

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

6 - 5

3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
31
PPG
36
OPPG

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Check out our best plays in this week’s “Fab Five”:

A pair of teams from the Mountain West Conference lock up in a West Division tilt from the Aloha State. The UNLV Rebels seek to keep rolling along as they visit the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors late Saturday night. UNLV upended San Diego State 27-24 on the road last Saturday in their most recent contest. Hawaii had a bye week last week: they were trounced 56-17 at home against Utah State in their previous game on November 3. The Rainbow Warriors own a 12-11 edge in the all-time series between the schools but UNLV has taken the last three meetings. That includes a 31-23 home win in the last matchup on November 4, 2017.

UNLV Rebels Seek Back to Back Victories

UNLV snapped their six-game losing skid by picking up the win over San Diego State on the road last week to get back in the win column. The Rebels try to make it two straight wins as they play here. UNLV led 6-0 after one quarter and was up 13-7 late in the first half before giving up 17 unanswered points to trail 24-13 after three quarters. The Rebels rallied with two fourth quarter scores and hung on for the victory in the contest. UNLV owned a 436-368 advantage in total offense despite losing the first down (21-19) and time of possession battles (30:43 to 29:17) in the contest. Both teams committed two turnovers in the game. The Rebels are 5-5 ATS while the over is 6-4 in their games this season.

The Rebels are 113th in the FBS with 173.2 yards per game through the air and an impressive 23rd in rushing with 224.5 yards per game on the ground. UNLV is 74th in the FBS with 28.3 points per game while ranking 118th in scoring defense as they allow 38.3 points per contest. Armani Rodgers is 34 of 82 passing for 369 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 488 yards plus six scores on the ground. He’s missed several weeks with a broken toe and is questionable here. Max Gilliam is 118 of 214 passing for 1,356 yards with 13 touchdowns against eight interceptions. Lexington Thomas comes in leading UNLV with 171 carries for 897 yards and 10 touchdowns. Xzaviar Campbell (37 carries, 188 yards), Charles Williams (63 carries, 322 yards) and Evan Owens (31 carries, 208 yards, TD) are next in the mix on the ground. Tyleek Collins (419 yards, six TD) and Brandon Presley (380 yards, two TD) each have 29 receptions to tie for the team lead. Darren Woods Jr. (22 receptions, 338 yards, five TD) is a solid third receiver. Evan Pantels has booted 33 of 34 extra point attempts this season while going six of 10 on field goals with a long of 45.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Try to Stop Skid

Hawaii started the season off like gangbusters, going 6-1 out of the gate. Since then, things have soured for the Rainbow Warriors as they have dropped four straight games after getting pounded by Utah State. Hawaii was down 28-3 after one quarter and never seriously challenged the rest of the way. The Rainbow Warriors lost the total yardage battle 601-390, gave up 29 first downs while recording 18 and saw Utah State control the clock by a 33:33 to 26:27 margin in the contest. Hawaii turned the ball twice while forcing one takeaway in the game.

The Rainbow Warriors are 15th in the FBS in passing offense with 308.7 yards per game through the air and 116th in rushing offense with 120.8 yards a game. Hawaii stands 44th with 31.9 points per contest and 114th in scoring defense as they give up 36.5 points per contest. Cole McDonald is 232 of 388 for 3,163 yards with 32 touchdowns against six interceptions while adding 349 rushing yards and two scores. Chevan Cordeiro is 19 of 30 for 148 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Dayton Furuta leads the team with 87 carries for 447 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Fred Holly III is the second back in the system with 85 carries for 359 yards and four scores. In the passing game, John Ursua is one of the top targets with a team-high 79 catches for 1,161 yards plus 15 scores. Cedric Byrd (66 receptions, 755 yards, eight TD), JoJo Ward (40 catches, 636 yards, six TD) and Marcus Armstrong-Brown (36 catches, 428 yards, TD) are solid secondary receivers. Ryan Meskell is 37 of 38 on extra points and is 12 of 15 on field goals with a long of 43.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Hawaii has struggled with four straight losses and their leaky defense is a major reason why things are in this one. The Rainbow Warriors have a prolific offense but their problems on the defensive side can come back to haunt them. UNLV picked up the win in their last game, winning on the road at San Diego State. The Rebels have a terrific ground game led by Thomas and they can take advantage of the leaky Hawaii defense. McDonald will do his part to keep Hawaii in it but take the points and UNLV here. The Rebels should hang in and cover if they don’t win outright.

Prediction: UNLV Rebels +6.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Hawaii has given up at least 40 points in five of their last six contests, including in each of their losses in this stretch. The Rainbow Warriors have given up 195 points in their four game skid and now has to try and turn things around. UNLV has a punishing ground game and depending who is under center, they can do some damage in the air as well. The Runnin’ Rebels will have to contain the dynamic Ursua, who has piled up more than 1,000 yards receiving and 15 scores. Can Hawaii find a way to get back in the win column in this contest after four straight losses?

The over is 4-1 in the Rebels last five on fieldturf. Hawaii is 7-2 in their last nine after scoring less than 20 points in their last game, 5-2 in their last seven after allowing at least 200 yards on the ground in the last game and 17-7 in their last 24 in November. The teams have gone over the total in each of their last four meetings in Hawaii and in five of their last six meetings. Look for this one to follow suit as defense is optional in this contest.

Prediction: Over 69.5

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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