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The Wisconsin Badgers will head on the road to take on the Purdue Boilermakers in Big Ten action Saturday afternoon from Ross-Ade Stadium. The Badgers dropped a 22-10 decision to Penn State in their latest action, and the Boilermakers were shelled 41-10 in Minnesota last week. The Badgers recorded a 17-9 home win over Purdue last season.
Badgers Fall to Penn State, Hornibrook Questionable
The Wisconsin Badgers head into their final conference road game of the season sporting a 4-3 conference record. The Badgers are coming off a 22-10 road loss to Penn State last week. Badgers #1 QB Alex Hornibrook did not play due to a concussion, and he is questionable for this contest. If he does not play, Jack Coan will take the snaps. The sophomore QB has 282 passing yards with two TD’s against two INT’s in three games.
Jonathan Taylor could play a big factor in this game. The talented sophomore is one of the best running backs in the FBS. He has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one game this season for a total of 1548 yards and 12 TD’s. Wisconsin’s leading receiver A.J. Taylor could also play a large role in this one against a weak secondary. The junior WR has tallied 406 receiving yards on the season. The Badgers offense relies heavily on their dominant running game to generate a large portion of their offense, and they are averaging 267 rushing yards per game.
"Any time you lose it's hard to swallow" pic.twitter.com/tiYBADK2OW
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) November 10, 2018
The Wisconsin defense continues to shine. They limited a powerful Penn State offense to only 22 points on 343 total yards last week. The Badgers pass defense has been among the best in the Big Ten, while their rush defense has been average. Wisconsin owns a 1-3 road record, and they are scoring an average of 28.9 points, ranking them 69th in the FBS. They are holding opponents to 21 points, good for 26th in the country.
Purdue Pummeled by Minnesota
The Purdue Boilermakers have been a very unpredictable team this season. They recently defeated Ohio State and Iowa, and they were crushed 41-10 against Minnesota last week in a game that had them favored by 10 points. David Blough wasn’t at his best in the defeat, recording only 142 passing yards. The senior QB has tallied over 300 passing yards five times this season, and overall he is having a strong season. Blough is up to 2825 passing yards with an 18:7 TD to INT ratio on the year.
Purdue’s leading rusher D.J. Knox only managed 34 rushing yards last week, and he has 787 rushing yards on the season. David Blough’s favorite target Rondale Moore continues to be targeted heavily. The freshman WR has made 37 receptions in his last four games, and he has racked up 909 receiving yards on the year.
The Purdue offense is capable of putting up big points against any opponent led by a productive passing offense, however, they have been wildly inconsistent. The Boilermakers defense has struggled in two straight games. They have excelled against the run this season, while consistently struggling against the pass. Purdue remains one win away from bowl eligibility, and they are averaging 31.1 points, placing them 51st overall. They are allowing an average of 25.9 points, pegging them 60th in the FBS.
The Purdue Boilermakers are:
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
The Wisconsin Badgers are:
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after recording more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game.
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games registering less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking Purdue in this contest. Purdue has won three out of their last four home games which included decisive wins over Boston College and Ohio State, followed by a win over Iowa. Wisconsin has dropped three straight road games, with all three losses coming by at least 12 points. The Badgers rely on their productive running game to generate offense, and the Boilermakers are holding opponents to only 145 rushing yards per game on the season.
Furthermore, Purdue has proven they can generate significant offense against strong defensive teams such as Ohio State and Iowa. Also, they are averaging a remarkable 312 passing yards per game, so I am confident they can have a big game offensively led by QB David Blough.
Prediction: Purdue Boilermakers
Full-Game Total Pick
The under is a solid option in this matchup. The Purdue defense has come through with some dazzling performances. They held Boston College to 13 points and Ohio State to 20 points, so I am confident they can contain a struggling Wisconsin offense, plus the under is 5-1 in Purdue’s last six games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.
In addition, while I anticipate a productive performance from the Purdue offense, Wisconsin should be able to minimize the damage. The Badgers have held their opposition to 22 or fewer points in three out of their last four games, plus the under is 4-0 in the Badgers’ last four November games.
Full-Game Prop Bet
I am taking the over on the Purdue team total. Purdue scored 49 points against an Ohio State defense that is holding opponents to 22 points, and 38 points against an Iowa team that is holding opponents to 18.1 points on the season. QB David Blough has displayed the ability to produce against a strong pass defense. He recently registered 333 passing yards with 4 TD’s against an Iowa pass defense that is holding opponents to 190 passing yards per game.
Prediction: Purdue Team Total: Over 29.5
Half-Time Side Pick
I am sticking with Purdue on the halftime line. The Purdue defense has been sharp in the first half, holding opponents to only 13.5 points on the season. Also, the Badgers have consistently struggled to score on the road in the first half where they are only posting an average of 7.8 points on the season.
Half-Time Total Bet
The under on the halftime total is a solid option. Purdue hasn’t generated any significant offense in the first half recently, averaging only 10 points in their last three games. In addition, the Badgers are only averaging nine points in the first half over their last three games. I anticipate a low scoring contest throughout all four quarters.
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I am taking Purdue to score first as I anticipate a strong start from the Boilermakers on their home field. They rank 28th in the country with an average of 8.5 points in the first quarter, and an average of 9.2 points in the first quarter on their home field.
Prediction: Purdue to Score First -150