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Kentucky vs. Georgia,
11-18-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#323 Kentucky
#324 Georgia

Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 3:45pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Kentucky Wildcats

7 - 3


Georgia Bulldogs

9 - 1


Betting Trends


No betting trends available for this game. Click here to see all available for NCAAF.

Kentucky Wildcats (7-3 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U) at No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U)

Georgia’s first big road test of the season was a complete disaster as the Bulldogs were crushed by Auburn, 40-17. The season isn’t over and Georgia is still ranked seventh thanks to a bunch of other squads losing. They’ll look to get back on track with a home against Kentucky. The Wildcats are having a solid season, coming off a 44-21 road win over Vanderbilt. Last season, Georgia edged the Wildcats on the road, 27-24 from Lexington. Kentucky sits at 4-3 in the SEC East, while Georgia leads the division at 6-1, 1 1/2 games ahead of 5-3 South Carolina.

Wildcats have another road challenge

It’s basketball season in Lexington but you can’t take your eyes off the football team just yet. The Wildcats do have losses against Florida and Ole Miss at home and Mississippi State (45-7) on the road. In their win over Vanderbilt, the Wildcats were tied 7-7 at 2:14 and then scored the next 27 points to jump all over the Commodores. They were up 34-7 with 8:29 left in the third quarter and held to win by 23. Kentucky ran for 232 yards and amassed 427 total yards. They forced four interceptions and held the Commodores to just 60 yards on 20 carries.

Kentucky quarterback Stephen Johnson was an efficient 13-of-17 for 195 yards. He was helped by running back Ben Snell Jr. who rushed for 116 yards on 17 attempts with three touchdowns. Johnson has 1,800 yards passing with 10 TDs and four picks with 348 rushing yards and three TDs. Snell has 1,013 rushing yards with 15 touchdowns. Kentucky’s defense has been very good against the run this season, allowing 121.9 yards per game (20th) and not so great against the pass (282.3ypg).

Dawgs not barking at Auburn

Georgia did defeat Notre Dame on Sept. 9, 20-19 on the road, so it’s not like they weren’t tested this season. But after that win, the Bulldogs, just buzzed through a bunch of decent squads, with none being a real threat in the SEC race. Auburn presented the biggest challenge and the Bulldogs were not up for it. They did start the game with a Nick Chubb one-yard touchdown but then did not score a point until there was 5:23 left in the third quarter. By then, the score was 30-10 Auburn and the Bulldogs hopes of an undefeated season was over. That was probably an unrealistic hope but for Georgia to get dominated like this was eye-opening. The Bulldogs didn’t play well on offense or defense, giving up 237 yards rushing and 251 in the air against Jarrett Stidham, who tossed for three touchdown passes. Georgia quarterback Jake From completed 13 of 28 for 184 yards with one touchdown, which was a meaningless one late in the game to make it 40-17. Chubb was also held to 27 yards on 11 carries, while Sony Michel rushed for 21 yards on nine attempts.

The lack of defense was a complete shock considering how good the Bulldogs have been this season. They still rank fifth overall (277.5ypg), 10th against the pass (173.7ypg) and 5th against the run (103.8ypg). The big worry on offense is what would happen if an opponent can stop the run (256ypg) and it showed that the passing game (168.1ypg) isn’t good enough to carry the team.

NCAAF Trends:

Kentucky is:

  • 1-5 ATS last 6 overall.
  • 0-5 ATS last 5 on grass.
  • 5-13 ATS last 18 in November.

Georgia is:

  • 5-1 ATS last 6 after a SU loss.

Kirby Smart has done an excellent job in Athens. He’ll have his team fired up against a team that is playing well this season for a basketball school. Georgia is also 4-0 ATS last 4 against Kentucky and 5-2 ATS last 7 at home in series.

Pick: Geogia

Georgia’s defense is not a joke. The whole team stunk against Auburn, but the Bulldog linebackers are among the best in the nation. It’s hard to imagine Snell and Johnson doing much against that defense. That’s why I’m going under. Kentucky is 9-4 Under last 13 road games while Georgia is 8-3 Under last 11 in November.



Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!


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