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NCAAF

SMU vs. Memphis,
11-18-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot

#373 SMU
Mustangs
#374 Memphis
Tigers

Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

SMU Mustangs

6 - 4

6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
39
PPG
32
OPPG

Memphis Tigers

8 - 1

5-4
ATS
6-3
O/U
42
PPG
31
OPPG

SMU Mustangs (6-4, 3-3 AAC) vs. Memphis Tigers (8-1, 5-1 AAC)

NCAA Football:  Saturday, November 18th, 12:00 pm EST

Line:  Memphis -11.5

The Mustangs of SMU head to Memphis to take on the Tigers in a noon kickoff on Saturday.  This game looked like a marquee matchup a few weeks ago, but the Mustangs have now lost two straight, including a 43-40 heartbreaker to Navy on Saturday.  The back to back losses dropped them to 6-4 overall and 3-3 in the American Athletic Conference.  They trail Memphis by two games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers just continue to win.  They beat Tulsa 41-14 to win their fifth straight game last week and had a bye this last week.  Their only loss of the year was to Central Florida 40-13, and I’m not sure the result wouldn’t be different if they didn’t play again now.  Memphis seems to just be getting better as the season moves on.

SMU loses a tough one

SMU lost a very winnable game on Saturday, allowing a quarterback making his first career start to run all over them.  Malcolm Perry ran for 282 yards and four touchdowns and the Midshipmen held off a furious challenge by the Mustangs to win the game late.  Navy led 13-5 after one quarter, and 34-11 at halftime, before SMU made it close in the second half.

SMU quarterback Ben Hicks played very well, amassing 261 yards through the air and throwing for four touchdowns, but Perry was the story.  His box score is almost comical.  He rushed for 282 yards on 33 carries and threw the ball only one time.   That ball was intercepted.  I think we’ll be seeing a lot of running (as usual) by Navy in the coming weeks.

Memphis beats UConn

Memphis beat UConn last Saturday, notching their fifth straight win and staying on top of their division in the AAC.  They only led 21-14 at halftime, but outscored the Huskies 20-0 in the second half for a comfortable 27 point win.  Quarterback Riley Ferguson threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns on the day and Darrel Henderson ran for 123 yards on 14 carries.

The Tigers are now ranked #22 in the nation and figure to get a pretty solid bowl game if they win out.  They are probably kicking themselves about their lone loss of the year, but Central Florida did beat them by 27 points so they can’t really be that mad.  It looks very likely they will meet each other in the conference championship game as both teams lead their respective divisions.

NCAAF Trends:

The SMU Mustangs are:

  • Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall

The Memphis Tigers are:

  • 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games
  • 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye
  • 4-0 ATS in their last 5 after accumulating over 450 yards of total offense in their previous game

I just think the Tiger offense will be too much for the Mustangs to handle.  SMU will put up some points, but not enough to cover 11.5.  I’m thinking somewhere around a 41-24 final.

Pick: Memphis

SMU’s defense has been lousy of late and gave up 43 points to Navy on Saturday.  They now face  a very good Memphis offense and I don’t see too many stops this weekend.  I think Memphis wins a high scoring one,

Pick: Over

5

Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.

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