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NCAAF

TCU vs. Texas Tech,
11-18-2017 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot

#361 TCU
Horned Frogs
#362 Texas Tech
Red Raiders

Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

TCU Horned Frogs

8 - 2

5-5
ATS
2-7
O/U
34
PPG
16
OPPG

Texas Tech Red Raiders

5 - 5

5-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
38
PPG
33
OPPG

No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 O/U) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U)

TCU fell to 11th in the country after getting crushed at now No.3 Oklahoma, 38-20 from Norman on Saturday. They’ll face a Texas Tech team that broke a four-game losing streak by beating up on Baylor on the road, 38-24. As for the Big 12 picture, TCU is 5-2, sitting in second place with Oklahoma State and West Virginia behind 6-1 Oklahoma. The Red Raiders are 2-5 and just looking for that one more win to make the bowl-eligible.

Defense can’t stop Sooners in the first half

Baker Mayfield only had to throw 27 passes but was very efficient, throwing for 333 yards with three TDs against the Horned Frogs. The bottom line for TCU, was that they gave up 38 points in the first half and were down by 24 at the half. The offense is good but they couldn’t keep up with the Sooners and Mayfield. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill struggled, completing 13 of 28 for 270 yards with one TD and a pick. Hill is questionable for this game with an undisclosed injury. If he can’t go, TCU will go with freshman Shawn Robinson. The Horned Frogs rushed for 155 yards on 32 carries, but to behind so quickly, the had to turn to the air.

The biggest disappointment was the defense, allowing 533 total yards and 200 rushing yards. They allowed no points in the second half but the Sooners were also up big and played more cautiously. This was a clean game with no turnovers, though TCU committed seven penalties for 60 yards. Darius Anderson leads the Horned Frogs with 768 yards with eight touchdowns. However, he suffered a foot injury and is out for the season. Hill has completed 65.9 percent of his passes for 2,279 yards with 16 TDs and five picks. On the season, TCU ranks 13th in overall defense (309ypg) and they are second against the run (82.7ypg). They rank 36th in total offense (433.8ypg) and 30th in points per game (34.2ppg).

Red Raiders finally got a break

There aren’t many easy games in the Big 12. Even Iowa State is close to being ranked. So Texas Tech losing at home to Iowa State (31-13) on Oct. 21 it not a bad loss, but it’s not good if you want to move back into the elite of the league. The Red Raiders are nowhere close to that right now but they are better than Baylor and Kansas. Now they’ve defeated both teams and will face Texas on the road after hosting TCU. In Saturday’s win over the Bears, the Red Raiders jumped out to a 21-7 halftime lead. They were helped by a 92-yard kickoff return to start the game by Keke Coutee on the first play of the game.

Quarterback Nic Shimonek had a strong game, going 24-of-29 for 246 yards with two TDs and no INTs. The Red Raiders struggled to run the ball, rushing for just 91 yards on 31 carries. Their pass defense also had their problems allowing 417 yards from Charlie Brewer, who completed 43 of 63 with three TDs and a pick. But Texas Tech played bend-but-not break defensively, forcing four turnovers, including three fumbles recovered. That defense though has been an issue this season, allowing 453.1 yards per game, including an even 300 yards in the air. That’s never a good thing in the pass-happy Big 12. On offense, they are averaging 189.2 yards per game on the ground and 244.6 yards in the air.

NCAAF Trends:

TCU is:

  • 5-2 ATS last 7 road games.
  • 4-0 ATS last 4 after an ATS loss.

Texas Tech is:

  • 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.

TCU can’t feel too bad for themselves. Oklahoma could be going to the playoffs considering they defeated Ohio State on the road. Last season, the Red Raiders edged the Horned Frogs on the road, 27-24, so revenge should be on their minds.  TCU will play enough defense in this one to cover on the road.

Pick: TCU

Last year’s game went under the total. This year’s game will go over because the Horned Frogs have a more explosive offense. They didn’t show that against Oklahoma but put up 44 points against Oklahoma State on the road, and that’s a team with a better defense than Texas Tech, who gave up 31 at home to Iowa State. Texas Tech is 15-7 Over their last 22 home games and 21-9 Over their last 30 after a SU win.

Over

4

Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!

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