Jordan-Hare Stadium is hosting another SEC showdown on Saturday afternoon. The Vanderbilt Commodores (5-3; 6-2-0 ATS) and Auburn Tigers (3-5; 4-4-0 ATS) will kick off at 12:45 p.m. EST. This marks the second straight year these programs are sharing a field. Last season, the Tigers left Vandy with a 31-15 victory. Will they beat them again, or are the Commodores ready to clinch a bowl game this weekend?
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Read on for this Vanderbilt vs. Auburn prediction.
Vanderbilt Vying for a Bowl Game
The Commodores had their three-game winning streak snapped last week, but a 27-24 loss to Texas isn't something to be ashamed of. This program already has a decade-defining upset this season. Vanberilt's 2-2 SEC record is two field goals away from potentially being 4-0. They're putting everyone to the test. Their shocking season starts with a defense holding opponents to 22.8 points per game. The Commodores limit opponents to 3.8 yards per carry and 114.8 rushing yards per game. That helps a shaky pass defense. Vanderbilt surrenders 7.4 yards per pass attempt on 65.6% completion. They allow 224.3 passing yards per game. Eight interceptions and 18 sacks have helped them get off the field when the secondary can't force incompletions. Let's see if this defense steps up in Auburn.
Offensively, this is a team averaging 32.0 points per game despite the fourth-fewest yards (351.5) among SEC schools. QB Diego Pavia is completing 64.5% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt. He has 13 TD passes against three interceptions. However, this is a run-first offense with the third-most attempts in the conference. Vanderbilt averages 156.1 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. Pavia is also the team's leading rusher. Will the Commodores' offense control Saturday's game?
Key Injuries - Sedrick Alexander (questionable); Joseph McVay (questionable); Zaylin Wood (questionable); Brycen Coleman (questionable)
Auburn Ends the Losing Streak
Thanks to a 24-10 win over Kentucky, the Tigers are 1-4 in conference play and no longer on a losing streak. This team needed that game desperately, as their chances of a bowl game were dwindling each week. Some good news about this year's Auburn team is that they're holding foes to 19.5 points per game. Those opponents pick up 325.4 yards per game. Against the run, Auburn only allows 3.2 yards per carry and 112.1 yards per contest. Through the air, their foes find 6.7 yards per attempt and complete 55.1% of their passes. The Tigers have six interceptions, 20 sacks, and have only allowed six passing TDs. This is a defense that can compete with most teams. Can they lean on it for another win this weekend?
Although Auburn averages 431.4 yards per game, the offense only puts up 27.6 points. An SEC-worst 10 interceptions thrown, seven of which came from Payton Thorne, is part of the problem. When the Tigers connect on passes, they're picking up 8.8 yards per attempt. Thorne has completed 62.0% of his passes and has 12 of the team's 18 passing scores. On the ground, Auburn gases opponents for 5.2 yards per carry. It leads to 178.6 yards per game. Jarquez Hunter (863 rushing yards) leads the charge out of the backfield. Is Auburn going to put together another winning effort?
Key Injuries - Caleb Burton III (questionable); Champ Anthony (questionable); Brandon Frazier (questionable)
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Best Bets for Vanderbilt vs. Auburn
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Vanderbilt has been the better team this season. Their offense has scored at least 20 points in every game, which includes defenses tougher than Auburn's. Meanwhile, the Tigers exceeded 21 points against a Power Four school for the first time last week.
Auburn may win because they're at home, but it'll be tight. Vanderbilt has a solid run defense and the Tigers have shaky ball security, especially when they throw. Those short fields will help the Commodores score against a solid Auburn defense. Regardless of who wins, this game should be decided by less than a touchdown. Bet on Vanderbilt to beat the seven-point spread.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Auburn's defense, holding opponents under 20.0 points per game, is built to stifle Vanderbilt. The Commodores run a lot and the Tigers have a great run defense. Auburn's defense pressures opposing QBs. Most importantly, they don't allow passing TDs. The Tigers could be the first team to keep Vandy under 20.
On the other side, the Commodores should be fine against Auburn's offense. They can slow down the Tigers' scary rushing attack. Auburn makes mistakes when they're forced to throw the ball. There's a reason that the Tigers are only averaging 17.2 points per game against Power Four programs. Anticipate a defensive struggle on Saturday and bet on the under.