Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#167 California 42.5 vs.
#168 Stanford -1.5
Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 4:00pm EST
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#167 University of California, Berkeley
#168 Stanford University
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The Stanford Cardinal will host the California Golden Bears in a PAC-12 clash Saturday night from Stanford Stadium. The Golden Bears fell 41-17 at USC last week, and the Cardinal were thrashed 49-22 at Washington State in their latest action, Stanford earned a 23-13 road win against California last season.

California One Win Away from Bowl Eligibility, QB Chase Garbers Injured

The California Golden Bears enter this one needing one more win to earn bowl eligible status. The Golden Bears’ scoring woes continued in their 41-17 home loss to USC last week in a tilt that had California labeled as 4 point dogs. #1 QB Chase Garbers was injured and did not return in the defeat. The sophomore is the Golden Bears #1 QB and he has been hit with a few injuries this season. As a result, he has 985 passing yards with an 8:2 TD to INT ratio. Kevin Modster has played about half the games and the junior has tallied 705 passing yards with five touchdowns against five interceptions. Garbers remains questionable with a shoulder injury.

The Golden Bears haven’t been able to generate any significant offense on the ground this season. Christopher Brown Jr. has only surpassed 100 rushing yards once all season, and he has tallied 628 rushing yards on the year.

Jordan Duncan has established himself as the top target in the air, leading the team with 23 catches for 335 yards. The Golden Bears offense has been stagnant all season but have a chance to break out again a Cardinal defense that is looking vulnerable.

The California defense is their greatest team strength. They had trouble against a potent USC offense last week but Stanford is not quite as productive as the Trojans. The Bears are especially effective limiting the run with a rush defense that ranks 37th, while their pass defense is down at 98th. California is currently averaging 18.9 points, ranking them 117th in the FBS. They are allowing an average of 22.7 points, good for 37th overall. The Golden Bears are carrying a 2-2 road record.

David Mills Shines in Loss to Washington State

The Stanford Cardinal will need to secure at least one win in their remaining two games to achieve bowl eligibility. Stanford was outplayed in both ends of the field in their 49-22 road loss to Washington State last week in a game that had the Cardinal as 11 point dogs.

David Mills got the start in place of KJ Costello and he was tremendous, accumulating 504 passing yards with three touchdowns. The junior QB has racked up 787 passing yards in his last two games and he has 1394 passing yards with an 8:3 TD to INT ratio. Stanford’s #1 QB KJ Costello did not suit up for undisclosed reasons and he will not play in this one.

Stanford does not experience a whole lot of success on the ground. They are led by Cameron Scarlett with 766 rushing yards. The senior RB only has 66 rushing yards in his last two games. Michael Wilson stepped with a season-best 114 receiving yards last week. The sophomore WR is now up to 513 receiving yards. The Cardinal offense is a big reason they only have three PAC-12 wins. They have scored 22 or fewer points in three out of their last four games.

The Stanford defense was exploited against Washington State last week but is up against a much weaker offense in this one. They squandered over 500 passing yards last week and have fallen down to 119th in the country against the pass. The Cardinal are scoring an average of 21.6 points, ranking them 110th overall. They are conceding an average of 28.9 points, pegging them 78th in the FBS.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Rating:

I am siding with Stanford considering this small spread. Stanford has won two out of their last three home games which included a 23-13 home win against Washington. California has dropped five out of their last six games overall which includes two straight road defeats. While Stanford QB KJ Costello is out for this game, his replacement David Mills actually has better stats than Costello. Mills accumulated a sizzling 504 passing yards against Washington State last week, and he is up against a California defense that ranks 98th against the pass.

Furthermore, California’s #1 QB Chase Garbers and leading rusher Christopher Brown Jr. are both questionable for this game. The Golden Bears are slumping offensively, scoring 17 or fewer points in five out of their last six games.

Prediction: Stanford Cardinal

Full-Game Total Pick

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This is a very low total so I am going with the over. This is the lowest total in any game Stanford has played this season. Stanford QB David Mills has collected seven touchdown passes in his last three games, and the junior QB should be able to take advantage ofΒ  California defense that is squandering an average of 251.8Β  passing yards per game. The over is 6-1 in the Cardinal’ last seven games following a straight-up loss.

In addition, while I don’t anticipate a ton of offense from California, the Stanford defense has allowed over 30 points in three out of their last four games overall. The over is 4-0 in Stanford’s last four games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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Rating:

I am opting with the under on the California team total which is available on PointsBet. The Golden Bears offense continues to stumble. They have only averaged 13.7 points in their four road games on the season which includes only a combined seven points in their last two road games. Stanford isn’t great defensively but they have shut down a few PAC-12 opponents this season. They limited Colorado to 16 points, Washington to only 13 points, and Oregon to 21 points.

Prediction: California Team Total Under

Half-Time Side Pick

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Rating:

All signs point to lead at the half for Stanford. The Cardinal' have averaged a terrific 17 points in the first half in their last three games. California has gone in the opposite direction as they have only averaged 7.7 points in the opening half in their last three games. Also, the Golden Bears have surrendered an average of 18.7 points in the first half in their last three games.

Prediction: Stanford Cardinal
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.