Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#171 Georgia Southern 59.5 vs.
#172 Arkansas State -1.5
Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 3:00pm EST
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#171 Georgia Southern University
#172 Arkansas St University
6-4
6-4
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7-3
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The Arkansas State Red Wolves will host the Georgia Southern Eagles in Sun Belt action Saturday afternoon from Centennial Bank Stadium. The Eagles tallied an easy 51-20 home win against UL Monroe last week, and the Red Wolves are coming off a 28-27 home win against Coastal Carolina. The Eagles registered a 28-21 home win against the Red Wolves last season.

Georgia Southern Clobbers UL Monroe, Earns Bowl Eligibility

The Georgia Southern Eagles are red-hot, winning five out of their last six games to improve to 4-2 in conference play. They posted a dominating 51-20 home win against UL Monroe last week in a matchup had them as 6.5 point favorites to seal bowl eligibility. The Eagles offense revolves around their running game with very few pass attempts. Shai Werts only has 456 passing yards. The mobile junior QB has amassed 461 rushing yards which included 53 rushing yards last week.

Eagles’ #1 RB J.D. King is locked in, rushing for over 100 yards in two straight games. The junior RB has tallied 669 rushing yards on an average of 4.2 yards per attempt. Malik Murray leads the team with 154 receiving yards. The Georgia Southern offense is very inconsistent as they rely on their strongrunning game. I expect them to have no problem generating points in this one.

The Eagles defense has looked good in most of their Sun Belt tilts. Their pass defense has been an issue at times, ranking 75th in the country and the Red Wolves will try to exploit them in the air as a result. Georgia Southern is currently averaging 27.9 points, ranking them 73rd overall. They are conceding an average of 29.5 points pegging them 82nd in the FBS. The Eagles stand at 2-3 on the road this season.

Arkansas State Collects Third Straight Win

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are bowl eligible. They rallied for a 28-27 home win against Coastal Carolina last week to extend their winning streak to three games and lift their Sun Belt record to 4-2.Layne Hatcher resumed his productive play with 305 passing yards and three touchdowns. The freshman QB is having a stellar season since becoming the #1 QB, recording over 290 passing yards in five out of his last six games, and he has accumulated 1857 passing yards with a 17:9 TD to INT ratio.

Marcel Murray can also do damage, posting over 100 rushing yards in three out of his last four games, and he is up to 706 rushing yards on the year. Look out for Omar Bayless in this one. The senior WR is the top receiver in the Sun Belt, racking up 1262 receiving yards on a remarkable 73 receptions. He will be targeted heavily against a subpar pass defense in this game. The Red Wolves offense has fared well through most of the conference play and are averaging 430 total yards per game.

The Arkansas State defense isn’t nearly as effective as their offense. They are pegged down at 110th against the pass and 122nd against the run, although they have played well in two out of their last three games. The Red Wolves are scoring an average of 33.6 points, ranking them 34th in the FBS. They are allowing an average of 35.1 points, placing them down at 117th overall. Arkansas State features a 3-2 home record. First place in the Sun Belt West is still a possibility for the Red Wolves as they trail Louisiana by one game.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am siding with Arkansas State in this one. I expect the home side Red Wolves to post their third straight home win. The Red Wolves have registered three consecutive wins overall. A big reason I prefer Arkansas State is their passing offense. QB Layne Hatcher is red-hot and the Red Wolves rank 21st in the FBS with 297 passing yards per game. Georgia Southern’s pass defense is vulnerable. They are allowing an average of 234 passing yards per game, placing them 75th overall.

Furthermore, the Red Wolves defense has displayed some improvement late in the season. They have conceded 27 or fewer points in two out of their last three games overall. Georgia Southern is inconsistent offensively, and they are only averaging 317 total yards per game.

Prediction: Arkansas State

Full-Game Total Pick

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I expect a high scoring battle. The Red Wolves should be able to exploit a poor Georgia Southern defense. The Eagles recently surrendered 49 points to Troy on November 9th and I don’t trust them on the road against the Red Wolves’ potent passing offense. The over is also 4-0 in the Eagles’ last four games overall.

In addition, while I expect Arkansas State to contain Georgia Southern, the Eagles run the ball on most plays and the Red Wolves' rush defense stands at the bottom at 122nd in the FBS. The over is 4-1 in Georgia Southern’s last five road games and that trend should resume in this one.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The over on the Arkansas State team total offered on PointsBet is a solid option. Red Wolves’ QB Layne Hatcher continues to exploit the defense in front of him. The freshman has collected over 300 passing yards in three out of his last four games overall. RB Marcel Murray is also playing well, rushing for over 100 yards in three out of his last four games.

Prediction: Arkansas State Team Total Over

Half-Time Total Bet

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I am sticking with the over on the first half total. This contest should yield plenty of points from start to finish. Georgia Southern accumulated 24 points in the opening half last week, and they are now averaging 16 points in the first half in their last three games. Moreover, Arkansas State has also been locked in early. They rank 35th in the country with an average of 16.6 points in the first half.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.