Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#135 Florida vs.
#136 Florida State (FSU)
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:30pm EST
Written by The Admiral

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Florida Gators (6-5) vs. Florida State Seminoles (8-3)

Week 13 of the 2022 college football season is upon us and brings plenty of interesting rivalry matchups. The Florida Gators head to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida, on Friday night to face off against the Florida State Seminoles, so let’s take a closer look. 

Florida opens as a 9.5-point underdog with a total of 57.5 points. Last season, the Gators beat the Seminoles 24-21 as 4-point home favorites with a total of 59.0 points, and Florida aims for its fourth consecutive victory over Florida State.  

The Gators are back on the losing track

After a couple of straight wins over Texas A&M 41-24 on the road and South Carolina 38-6 at home, the Florida Gators (6-5; 6-5 ATS) suffered a surprising 31-24 defeat at Vanderbilt 31-24 in Week 12. Playing as big 14-point road favorites, the Gators outgained the Commodores 445-283 in total yards but made a couple of costly mistakes including a muffed punt late in the second quarter that Vanderbilt’s long snapper returned to the house. 

"It's a setback no question," Florida coach Billy Napier said. "It is a little bit of a reality check. There were a lot of missed opportunities. I saw a lot of Florida beating Florida." 

The Gators racked up just 45 yards on 21 carries against Vanderbilt. Sophomore signal-caller Anthony Richardson went 25-of-42 for 400 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, while freshman wideout Daejon Reynolds posted eight catches for 165 yards and a couple of scores. 

Anthony Richardson has thrown for 2,351 yards, 14 touchdowns, and eight interceptions through 11 appearances this season. He’s also carried the ball 93 times for 609 yards and nine scores. Sophomore RB Montrell Johnson has accounted for 742 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on 127 totes, while junior WR Xzavier Henderson, who missed Week 12 due to a lower-body injury, has 38 receptions for 410 yards and a couple of touchdowns on his season tally. 

The Gators rank 47th in the country in points for (31.2 per game) and 15th in rushing yards (208.9). They allow 27.3 points per contest (tied 77th in the nation) on 236.9 passing yards (86th) and 171.5 rushing yards (92nd). 

The Seminoles eye their fifth W in a row

The Florida State Seminoles (8-3; 8-3 ATS) extended their SU and ATS winning streak to four games last Saturday, beating the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 49-17 as 25-point home favorites. It was a one-way street, as the Seminoles built a 35-3 lead by the end of the first half. They outgained the Ragin’ Cajuns 440-291 in total yards and posted 251 rushing yards on 45 carries while moving the chains at will. 

“I’m so proud of our players. We needed to start fast today, something we talked about as a football team,” Florida State head coach Mike Norvell said. “Now our focus goes to what’s ahead. A huge game Friday night for our program. … I think we’re playing great football, but we’ve got to get better this week.” 

Junior QB Jordan Travis completed nine of his 14 passing attempts for 112 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. He also carried the pigskin five times for 38 yards and a couple of scores, while sophomore RB Trey Benson added 16 totes for 80 yards and a TD. 

Travis has tossed for 2,526 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just four interceptions so far this season. The Seminoles are scoring 35.4 points per game (23rd in the nation) on 217.0 rushing yards (14th) and 256.7 passing yards (41st). On the other side of the ball, Florida State is allowing only 18.0 points per contest (13th) on 155.4 passing yards (4th) and 138.0 rushing yards (52nd). 

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Over their last four outings, the Seminoles have outscored their rivals 173-39. Florida State has gained 200-plus rushing yards in six straight showings, and Jordan Travis has thrown just one interception over his last five appearances, so I’m backing the Seminoles to beat Florida by ten or more points. FSU’s defense will be a huge factor, too, and the Gators will struggle to move the ball through the air. 

The Gators have been inconsistent all season. Their defense won’t be able to cope with FSU’s fluid offense. The Gators are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 2-4 ATS in their previous six meetings with Florida State, while the Seminoles are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 6-0 ATS in their last six showings in November. 

Prediction: Florida State Seminoles -9.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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The Seminoles’ defensive unit has been outstanding in the last four weeks. Florida State’s ground game has done a terrific job, too, and I’m expecting both Seminoles and Gators to run the ball a lot in this game. Florida has to try to control the clock and take advantage of Florida State’s run defense, so I’m going with the under on the totals. 

Only one of the last eight encounters between the Gators and Seminoles has seen more than 57 points on the scoreboard. The total has gone under in eight of their previous 11 meetings at Doak Campbell Stadium. 

Prediction: Go under 57.5 points (-110)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.