Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#121 Utah State vs.
#122 Boise State
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 12:00pm EST
Written by Chris King

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A pair of teams from the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference square off on the blue turf in the Gem State. The Utah State Aggies are on the road as they make the trip to face the Boise State Broncos Friday afternoon. Utah State comes in off a 35-31 home victory over San Jose State in their previous contest Saturday night, covering the line as a 1.5-point favorite. Boise State slipped past Wyoming 20-17 on the road in their previous game Saturday though they failed to cover the line as a 14.5-point favorite. In the all-time regular season series, the Broncos own an 18-3 advantage and have won the last six meetings. That includes a 27-3 road victory in the most recent matchup on September 25, 2021.

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Utah State Aggies Seek Fourth Straight Victory

Utah State won their third straight and their fifth in the last six games after a 1-4 start as they edged San Jose State at home last Saturday. The Aggies improved to 6-5 on the season and are tied for second in the Mountain Division with a 5-2 conference mark. Against San Jose State, Utah State trailed 6-0 before reeling off 21 unanswered points. The Aggies led 21-13 at the half, 28-23 after three quarters and trailed 31-28 with 6:42 to play before going 75 yards in nine plays to score the game-winning touchdown with 2:49 to go. Utah State held a 430-341 advantage in total offense, picked up 25 first downs while allowing 17 and held a 33:41 to 26:19 edge in time of possession. Those numbers helped offset the fact that the Aggies committed three turnovers while failing to record a takeaway.

On the year, the Aggies are 110th in the nation in passing offense as they average 190.5 yards per game through the air and stand tied for 58th in rushing offense with 162.1 yards per contest. Utah State is 100th in the FBS in scoring offense with 23.3 points per game while they stand 99th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 29.5 points per contest. Logan Bonner has completed 62 of 110 passes for 753 yards with six touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season. He's out for the season with a lower-body injury. Cooper Legas (105 of 169, 1159 yards, 10 TD, seven INT, 227 rushing yards, two TD), Bishop Davenport (20 of 35, 145 yards, INT, 48 rushing yards, two TD) and Levi Williams (four of 15, 27 yards, 36 rush yards) have all seen action under center. Calvin Tyler Jr. leads the team on the ground with 219 carries for 978 yards plus six scores this season. Robert Briggs (74 carries, 353 yards, TD) is the second back in the system. Brian Cobbs leads the team with 63 receptions for 769 yards and four scores on the year. Terrell Vaughn (44 receptions, 442 yards, four TD) and Justin McGriff (25 grabs, 374 yards, four TD) are the only other players over the 300-yard mark in receiving yards this season. For that matter, they are the only other players with more than 150 receiving yards. Connor Coles is 30 of 30 on extra points and 10 of 14 on field goal attempts with a long of 50 this season.

Boise State Broncos Prepping for Mountain West Title Game

Boise State won for the sixth time in seven games as they edged Wyoming on the road, clinching the Mountain Division title of the Mountain West in the process. The Broncos improved to 8-3 on the season overall and stand 7-0 in the conference. Against Wyoming, Boise State trailed 10-0 in the second quarter and 10-6 at the half. The Broncos trailed 17-13 after three quarters but scored the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter to earn the victory. Boise State held a 480-308 advantage in total offense, controlled the first down battle 25-11 and held a 36:29 to 23:31 advantage in time of possession. The Broncos forced three turnovers to offset a pair of their own in the contest.

The Broncos enter this game ranked 108th in the FBS in passing offense with 194.3 yards per game through the air and they are tied for 39th in rushing offense with 188.8 yards per contest. Boise State is 62nd in scoring offense as they put up an average of 29.1 points per contest while they are 12th in scoring defense by allowing 17.3 points per game. Hank Bachmeier has completed 51 of 94 passes for 497 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions this season. Taylen Green is 122 of 189 passing for 1,511 yards with eight touchdowns against four interceptions while ranking third on the team in rushing with 341 yards plus seven scores. George Holani is the leading ground gainer with 185 carries for 977 yards plus 10 scores while Ashton Jeanty (108 carries, 581 yards, six TD) is the second back in the system. Latrell Caples leads the team with 37 receptions for 361 yards and three scores this season. Billy Bowens (26 catches, 388 yards, four TD) and Stefan Cobbs (29 grabs, team-high 396 yards, two TD) are other solid options in the passing game. Jonah Dalmas has hit all 38 extra point attempts and 18 of 22 field goal attempts with a long of 51 this season.

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Both teams have been playing good football of late after sluggish starts to the season, but the fact remains that they have had offensive issues. Utah State is still just 100th in scoring offense this season as the loss of Bonner really derailed their hopes. Boise State has won six of their last seven games as Green stepped in to replace Bachmeier under center and they have a capable 1-2 punch on the ground with Holani and Jeanty to support him. This game comes on the blue turf, where Boise State is always tough. While Utah State has been better of late, going on the road and facing a Broncos’ defense that is in the top 20 of the country in scoring defense is too much for them to handle. Give the points and take Boise State at home here.

Prediction: Boise State Broncos -16.5

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Utah State comes into this game having stayed under the total in seven of their 11 games on the season. The Aggies have recorded back-to-back overs entering this game but have stayed under the number in three of their five road contests this season. Boise State has seen the under post a 6-5 record in their 11 games this season. The Broncos, surprisingly, have gone over the number in four of their five games at home this season, compared to a 5-1 mark to the under away from the blue turf. With that said, this isn’t the same Utah State offense of a season ago and that helps the Broncos keep the scoring down. Look for this game to wind up under the number.

Prediction: Under 51.5
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Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.