Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#139 TCU vs.
#140 Iowa State
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 4:30pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

The TCU Horned Frogs will head to Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa on Friday afternoon as they close the Big 12 season with a battle versus the Iowa State Cyclones.

Iowa State has dropped three of its last four games with all three of those losses coming by a touchdown or less. The Cyclones enter with a 6-5 overall record, including a 4-4 mark versus Big 12 competition. Meanwhile, TCU has a chance to become bowl eligible with a win this week. The Horned Frogs have won five of their first 11 games (5-6) while posting a 3-5 record during the Big 12 season.

Can TCU close the regular season with a win on the road at a struggling Iowa State team on Friday?

TCU fighting for bowl eligibility versus Iowa State

TCU knocked off Kansas 31-28 at home last weekend to inch closer towards bowl eligibility with the win. Quarterback Max Duggan completed 10-of-16 passes for 166 yards and one touchdown while running back Kendre Miller rushed 12 times for 112 yards and a touchdown in the win. After taking a 28-14 lead in the fourth quarter, TCU allowed Kansas to tie the game before Griffin Kell nailed a 25-yard field goal with five seconds remaining to propel the Horned Frogs to victory.

Duggan is trying to put together a strong finish to his junior season. The 6-foot-2 signal-caller has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 1,832 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions so far this year. Meanwhile, the team is expected to remain without leading rushing Zach Evans for the final regular-season game versus Iowa State, according to Drew Davison of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Evans has rushed for a team-high 648 yards and seven yards per carry with six total touchdowns so far this season.

On defense, the Horned Frogs have surrendered 33.7 points per game, 112th in the nation. TCU has also given up 454.5 yards of total offense per contest, including a whopping 216.8 rushing yards per game, good for 121st in the nation.

Cyclones stumble on the road vs. No.13-Oklahoma

Iowa State dropped its second consecutive contest last weekend, falling short on the road 28-21 versus No. 13-ranked Oklahoma. Quarterback Brock Purdy completed 30-of-43 passes for 281 yards with one touchdown and one interception on the day while Breece Hall rushed for only 58 yards and a score in the loss.

It’s been a rough finish for Purdy, who is entering the final two games of his illustrious career at Iowa State. The 6-foot-1 senior has completed 72.9 percent of his passes for 2,722 yards with 16 touchdowns and only seven interceptions this season. He’s also stumbled down the stretch, throwing for just five touchdowns and three interceptions over his last four games combined. Meanwhile, Hall leads the team in rushing with 1,230 yards and 17 rushing scores this season.

On defense, Iowa State ranks among the stingiest units in the country, allowing just 21.2 points per game, 30th in the FBS. The Cyclones have also given up just 306.6 yards of total offense, 10th in the nation, including only 185.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 12th in the country.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Iowa State comes into this game favored by more than two touchdowns. Purdy and Hall will likely be playing in their final home games, which could turn this into an emotional contest for the Cyclones. On the other hand, TCU needs a win to become bowl eligible, so this game will have significance for both squads. The Horned Frogs have yet to win back-to-back Big 12 games and they should be able to move the ball on the ground in this game against the Cyclones, who have lost three of their last four contests. Take TCU to cover the spread on the road in this Big 12 regular-season finale on Friday afternoon.

Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs +15

Full-Game Total Pick

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These two teams are projected for 59 points but that total seems to be set a little too high in this spot. Iowa State has been tough to score on all season long, but the Cyclones’ defense has been especially tough at home, giving up just 14.4 points per game in five games at Jack Trice Stadium. Meanwhile, TCU’s defense has allowed 31 points or fewer in four of its last five contests. Take this game to stay under the projected total in Ames, Iowa on Friday. 

Prediction: Under 59
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He has been a very successful sports bettor over the years and has now brought his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.