Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#233 Air Force vs.
#234 San Diego State
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 9:00pm EST
Written by The Admiral

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Air Force Falcons (8-3) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-4)

The ultimate week of the 2022 college football regular season brings the Mountain West Conference showdown between the Air Force Falcons and San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday, November 26, with the kick-off at 9:00 PM ET. 

The Falcons head to Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California, as small 2-point favorites. The Aztecs, who aim for their tenth straight victory over Air Force, are listed as +110 moneyline underdogs, while the totals sit at 43.0 points.  

Air Force outlasted Colorado State without a single pass completion

The Air Force Falcons (8-3; 5-6 ATS; 4-3 conf.) extended their winning streak to three games with a 24-12 victory to the Colorado State Rams in Week 12. Playing as 21.5-point home favorites, the Falcons controlled the game for all 60 minutes but failed to beat a huge number. Air Force outgained Colorado State 359-244 in total yards, racking up all 359 on 71 rushing attempts. 

“It was a hard-fought game, and we really struggled to match up against these guys”, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun said. “So, it’s nice to be able to be competitive in this game.” 

In his last game at Falcon Stadium, senior RB Brad Roberts went off for 184 yards and a touchdown on 37 carries. Senior signal-caller Haaziq Daniels went 0-for-2 through the air and carried the pigskin nine times for 24 yards, while senior WR DeAndre Hughes had six carries for 72 yards and a TD. On the other side of the ball, senior linebacker Vince Sanford went bonkers, finishing with four sacks and five tackles for loss. 

The Falcons lead the nation in rushing yards (336.4 per game) while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. They score 29.0 points per game (63rd in the country) and surrender 14.2 in a return (6th) on 153.8 passing yards (3rd) and 108.9 rushing yards (tied-17th). 

Brad Roberts has been unstoppable at times, tallying 1,425 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Haaziq Daniels has thrown for 719 yards, six touchdowns, and a couple of interceptions while posting 112 totes for 584 yards and seven scores. 

SDSU eyes its fourth consecutive win

Just like the Falcons, the San Diego State Aztecs (7-4; 5-6 ATS; 5-2 conf.) have won three games in a row. After a couple of home victories over UNLV 14-10 and San Jose State 43-27, the Aztecs routed the New Mexico Lobos 34-10 as 14.5-point road favorites in Week 12. SDSU shut down New Mexico completely in the second half, outgaining the Lobos 459-209 in total yards. 

“We were a little soft on the inside in the first half and alignment-wise, we really hurt ourselves,” SDSU head coach Brady Hoke said. “But defensive coordinator Kurt Mattix and the staff really did a good job with adjustments.”  

Junior QB Jalen Mayden went 15-of-25 for 280 yards, a couple of touchdowns, and an interception last week. Sophomore wideout Mekhi Shaw had six receptions for 120 yards and a pair of scores, while junior RB Kenan Christon racked up 102 yards and a TD on ten carries. 

Since Maden took over as a starting quarterback in Week 6, the Aztecs have gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. Jalen has tossed for 1,533 yards, ten touchdowns, and five interceptions so far this season while toting the ball 51 times for 209 yards and three touchdowns. The Aztecs score 23.0 points per game (101st in the nation) and surrender 20.8 in a return (31st). 

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Aztecs are yielding 115.9 rushing yards per game (24th in the nation) and 3.8 yards per carry. They should be able to contain the Falcons’ powerful rushing game. Also, the Aztecs’ passing game has improved a lot with Jalen Mayden under center, so I’m going with the hosts to cover. However, keep in mind that there’s nothing to play for in this game, so both teams could experiment and rest some players. 

SDSU has dominated Air Force since 2010, going 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in the process. Last year, the Aztecs beat the Falcons 20-14 as 3-point road dogs. San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall, while Air Force is 2-5 ATS in its previous seven. 

Prediction: Take the San Diego State Aztecs +2.0 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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My best Air Force vs. San Diego State betting pick would be the under on the totals. The Falcons will run the ball all night long, while the Aztecs will try to do the same in order to keep Air Force’s offense on the sidelines and disrupt its rhythm. 

The under is 8-3 in the last 11 encounters between Air Force and SDSU, and their previous two meetings have produced less than 40 points in total. Also, the under is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last five games overall, and each of their previous four tilts has seen 38 or fewer points on the scoreboard. 

Prediction: Go under 43.0 points (-110)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.