Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#197 Nevada vs.
#198 UNLV
Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 6:00pm EST
Written by Chris King

It’s the battle of the Silver State as a pair of programs from the West Division of the Mountain West clash in search of a conference victory. The Nevada Wolf Pack are on the road as they take the short trek to face the UNLV Rebels Saturday night. Nevada was clobbered 41-14 at home by Fresno State in their previous contest last Saturday, failing to cover as a 22.5-point underdog. UNLV was beaten 31-25 on the road by Hawaii in their most recent game last Saturday, losing outright as an 11-point favorite. In the all-time series between the schools, the Wolf Pack own a 20-10 advantage and have won the last two meetings. That includes a 51-20 home victory in the most recent meeting October 29, 2021.

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Nevada Wolf Pack Looking for Third Straight Win Over UNLV

Nevada was run over by Fresno State at home last week, suffering their ninth straight loss after starting the season 2-0.  The Wolf Pack fell to 2-9 on the year overall and stand in the basement of the West Division of the Mountain West with a 0-7 conference mark. Against Fresno State, Nevada found themselves in a 17-0 hole after the opening quarter and never recovered from that point. The Wolf Pack trailed 24-0 at the half and 27-0 late in the third quarter before getting on the board though it was too little, too late. Nevada was outgained 524-389 in total offense, gave up 26 first downs while picking up 16, lost the time of possession 34:23 to 25:37 and committed three turnovers while failing to record a takeaway in the loss.

On the season, the Wolf Pack is 117th in the nation in passing offense with 177.2 yards per game while they stand 111th in rushing offense with an average of 113.2 yards per contest. The Wolf Pack is 121st in the FBS in scoring offense with 18.5 points per contest while they are 109th in scoring defense by allowing an average of 31.3 points per game. Nate Cox has hit 106 of 207 passes for 1,188 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He is second on the team in rushing offense with 242 yards and three scores. Shane Illingworth is 84 of 145 for 761 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions this season. Toa Taua is the leading ground gainer for the team with 188 carries for 767 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Devonte Lee (67 carries, 233 yards, five TD) is the second back in the system. Jamaal Bell has hauled in 25 receptions for 254 yards. BJ Casteel (43 catches, 491 yards, three TD), Taua (35 grabs, 277 yards, TD) and Dalevon Campbell (30 receptions, 396 yards, TD) are all over the 250-yard mark in receiving yards on the season. Brandon Talton hit all 14 extra points and seven of nine field goal attempts with a long of 50. Matthew Killam is 10 of 11 on extra points and three of five on field goals with a long of 48 on the year.

UNLV Rebels Looking to Bounce Back

UNLV started the year strong, opening 4-1, but has dropped six straight games after falling to Hawaii on the road last week. The Rebels dropped to 4-7 on the season and enter this game tied for fourth in the West Division of the Mountain West with a 2-5 record. Against Hawaii, UNLV trailed 7-6 after the opening quarter, led 13-7 at the half and gave up the go-ahead score in the final minute of the third quarter to trail 21-16. The Rebels never got closer than two again. UNLV held a 427-369 edge in total offense, picked up 21 first downs while allowing 19, controlled the clock 34:37 to 25:23 and forced two turnovers, including a scoop-six, while committing one in the loss.

The Rebels enter this week 89th in the nation in passing offense with 215.5 yards per game through the air and stand 75th in rushing offense by grinding out 143.5 yards per contest on the ground. UNLV is 79th in the FBS in scoring offense by averaging 26.3 points per game and 95th in scoring defense as they allow 29.1 points a contest. Doug Brumfield has completed 164 of 252 passes for 1,898 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is third on the team in rushing by contributing 257 yards plus six scores on the ground. Harrison Bailey (14 of 31, 109 yards) and Cameron Friel (33 of 49, 364 yards, three TD, INT) have seen limited action on the year. Aidan Robbins leads the team on the ground with 189 carries for 922 yards plus nine scores this season. Courtney Reese (52 carries, 372 yards) is the second back in the run game for the Rebels. When UNLV goes to the air, Ricky White leads the way with 50 receptions for 623 yards and four scores this season. Kyle Williams (36 receptions, 465 yards, four TD), Jeff Weimer (24 grabs, 263 yards, TD), Nick Williams (23 catches, 351 yards, TD) and Senika McKie (16 receptions, 198 yards, TD) have gone over the 175-yard mark in receiving yards this season. Daniel Gutierrez has connected on all 31 extra point attempts and 16 of 17 field goal attempts with a long of 50 this season.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Both of these teams come in on lengthy skids with Nevada losing nine straight contests and UNLV dropping six in a row. That doesn’t inspire much in the way of confidence for either team at this point in time. With that said, Nevada has struggled to get much done offensively, ranking near the bottom 10 in the FBS in scoring offense. UNLV, for all their issues, now have Brumfield and Robbins back up to speed after each missed multiple games with injury issues. The Rebels hung tough against Fresno State while we just saw Nevada get trucked by them. UNLV is at home here and they are better offensively, especially with the aforementioned duo back in the mix. Take the Rebels at home here as they prevail to snap their skid.

Prediction: UNLV Rebels -12.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Nevada has stayed under the number in six of their 11 games this season. The Wolf Pack have played five road games this season, with the under posting a 3-2 record in those games in relation to the total. UNLV has seen the total go 5-5-1 in their 11 games on the year. The Rebels have gone over the mark in four of their five home games this season. We’ve seen the over go 5-1 in UNLV’s last six games at home and 6-1 in their last seven games on grass. We’ve seen the over hit in five of the last seven meetings here at UNLV between the teams. Given the way both teams have had issues defensively and the fact that UNLV is healthy offensively, this game winds up over the total.

Prediction: Over 50.5
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Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.