The Oregon Ducks (9-2, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 O/U) collide with the Oregon State Beavers (8-3, 9-2 ATS, 6-5 O/U) in a PAC-12 rivalry showdown in the season finale on Saturday afternoon. The Ducks posted a big home win against #10 Utah last time out. The Beavers clobbered Arizona State last week. The Ducks earned a 38-29 home win against Oregon State in last year's meeting.
Ducks Top Utah, Battle for 1st Place
The #10 Oregon Ducks are battling atop the PAC-12 standings. They stand at 7-1 in conference play, 2nd in the conference. Oregon can clinch a spot in the championship game with a win in this game. The Ducks had their eight-game winning streak snapped in a home loss to Washington two weeks ago and rebounded nicely by recording a 20-17 home win against #10 Utah last week. Oregon's only other defeat occurred in the season opener against Georgia. The Ducks have covered in six out of their last seven clashes.
Bo Nix is consistently producing, logging at least 280 passing yards in four out of his last five games. The senior QB has excelled against strong defensive opponents and has reached at least 250 yards on eight occasions. Nix has 3062 passing yards complemented by a 25:6 TD to INT ratio.
The Ducks have several capable RBs led by Bucky Irving. The sophomore RB has eclipsed 100 yards in two out of his last three performances and is up to 851 rushing yards while Noah Whittington has 688 yards. Troy Franklin accrued 139 receiving yards in the recent loss to Washington. The sophomore WR has logged 789 receiving yards. The Oregon offense had reached 40 points in every conference game before only scoring 34 and 20 points respectively in their last two performances.
The Ducks' defense rebounded from a subpar effort against Washington by limiting the Utah offense to only 326 total yards last week. They have been exploited against the pass many times but were solid last week, conceding only 170 passing yards. The pass defense is pegged down at 122nd while the rush defense is 21st. Oregon is posting an average of 40.2 points, landing them fourth. They are allowing an average of 26.5 points, placing them 69th in the country.
Beavers Defense Shines in Another Victory
The #22 Oregon State Beavers enter the regular season finale with confidence. They have won two in a row to improve to 5-3 in PAC-12 play. They could potentially climb to 3rd in the conference standings with a win. Oregon State has been dominant recently, winning five out of its last six games propelled by stifling defense. They beat California 38-10 and were seven-point favorites in a 31-7 road win against Arizona State last week. The Beavers have covered the spread in all four conference home games.
Chance Nolan was injured in October and it’s been freshman Ben Gulbranson leading the offense since. Gulbranson hasn’t posted big numbers on an offense that prefers to run but is efficient, connecting on 63% of his pass attempts, and has collected 1230 passing yards along with an 8:3 TD to INT ratio.
The Beavers have two solid RBs. Damien Martinez is one of the best in the conference. The freshman RB eclipsed 100 rushing yards in five consecutive games and now has 867 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per carry. Tre’Shaun Harrison has made 16 receptions in his last three games. The senior WR leads the squad with 589 receiving yards. The Oregon State offense has scored over 30 points in three out of their last four games.
The Beavers' defense is outstanding. No one has really been able to solve the unit in PAC-12 play with the exception of a ranked Utah squad. They have conceded 24 or fewer points in five straight games. The defense held Arizona State to only 276 total yards and rank 59th against the pass and 19th against the run. Oregon State is posting an average of 31.9 points, landing them 42nd. They are limiting opponents to 20.3 points, good for 28th in the FBS.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
The #10 Oregon Ducks are playing for a spot in the Pac-12 title game. If they win this one they will be playing USC in the conference championship. Their two defeats this season came against ranked foes in Georgia and Washington. The Ducks have a prolific offense that ranks 2nd in the entire FBS in EPA(expected points added)/Play. They have no flaws on offense. Bo Nix has led the Ducks to an average of 288 passing yards per game and one area the Beavers can be solved is in the air. They rank 59th in passing yards allowed. Also, Oregon stands 12th in rushing yards and the Beavers' rush defense is pegged 84th in EPA/play.
Furthermore, the Beavers' offense is good but is nothing the Ducks can’t handle. The Beavers only scored 14 against USC, 16 against Utah, and 21 points against Washington. They are mediocre offensively and look no further than the Beavers' offensive EPA/Play rating of 67th in the FBS. The Beavers rely on the running game and Oregon is 21st in the FBS in rush defense.
Full-Game Total Pick
I expect plenty of offense. The Ducks have been involved in high-scoring games this season. The offensive production is consistent, scoring at least 40 points in eight out of their last ten games, making this total more than reasonable. The only conference games they didn’t score 40 points were against Washington and Utah.
In addition, the Ducks will give up points. They have squandered 22 or more points in six out of their last eight games. While I expect them to contain the Beavers, they have a star running back in Damien Martinez who is averaging a stellar 6.1 yards per carry and should generate offense. The over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings between these rivals.