Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#167 Houston vs.
#168 Connecticut (UCONN)
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 12:00pm EST
Written by The Admiral

Houston Cougars (10-1) vs. UConn Huskies (1-10)

The Houston Cougars will be looking for their 11th straight victory when they take on the UConn Huskies on Saturday afternoon. Houston defeated Memphis 31-13 for their 10th straight victory. The Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10. The Huskies were rocked by UCF last Saturday, 49-17, their third straight loss. UConn is 5-5 ATS in their last 10.

These teams have faced each other three times in recent history, with Houston winning the last two contests, including a 24-17 victory in October 2019. The Cougars enter as 32.5-point favorites.

Second Quarter Surge Propels Cougars to Victory

Houston broke open a scoreless first quarter with 21 points in the second on their way to a 31-13 victory. The Houston offense had a big day, led by a bruising ground attack that rushed for 197 yards and three touchdowns. Ta’Zhawn Henry rushed for 73 yards and a score. Clayton Tune had a solid performance, throwing for 264 yards and a touchdown.

Houston is averaging 38.2 points per game, 12th in the country, and they are 56th in yards per game at 417.1. The Cougars are led by an outstanding ground game that is averaging 148.6 yards per game. Alton McCaskill leads the group with 790 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Henry has rushed for 471 yards and seven scores.

Tune has completed 68.8% of his passes for 2712 yards and 22 touchdowns. He has thrown eight interceptions. Nathaniel Dell is the leading receiver with 65 catches for 965 yards and nine TDs. Look for him to be an active part of the offense early on in this game as they look to get him over 1000 yards receiving. The next highest receiver is Christian Trahan with just 33 catches.

Houston is 22nd in the country in points allowed per game at 20.1. The defense has recorded 36 sacks, 14 interceptions, and seven fumble recoveries. Three players on the defense have at least 5.0 sacks, led by Derek Parish at 5.5. Donovan Mutin leads the team with 65 tackles and has two sacks.

First Quarter Surge Dooms Huskies

UCF scored 21 first-quarter points and the first 28 points of the game as they defeated UConn, 49-17. The Huskies scored both of their touchdowns in the second quarter. UConn got 77 yards and a touchdown from Nate Carter. Steven Krajewski had a tough day, completing just 18 of 42 passes for 174 yards and he threw three interceptions.

UConn is averaging 15.5 points per game, 127th in the country, and they are also 127th in yards per game at 267.7. Carter leads the team in rushing at 565 yards and two scores. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, the only player with more than 10 carries to have an average better than 4.0.

Krajewski has completed only 53.3% of his passes for 1138 yards and six touchdowns. He has thrown 10 interceptions. Keelan Marion is the leading receiver with 24 catches for 434 yards and five TDs.

The Huskies are allowing 37.9 points per game, 123rd in the country. The defense has just 12 sacks, nine interceptions, and two fumble recoveries. Jackson Mitchell is the leading tackler with 111 and has 1.5 sacks and an interception. Travis Jones leads the team with 4.5 sacks.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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In five of the last nine games, UConn has been the 29.5-point underdog or worse. They are 3-2 ATS in those five games, but they have been a 35-point underdog and lost.

The truth is that this is not a very good team. The Huskies are terrible offensively and defensively, and so it would not be surprising to see them get blown out. The question is whether Houston can cover the 32.5-points they are favored by. Considering that this team is averaging 38.2 points per game and that the Huskies are giving up nearly 38 points per contest, you can expect them to score may be as many as 50 points in this contest. This is their last chance to both for a higher ranking and a better bowl game, so I expect the Cougars to run up the score.

Prediction: Take the Houston Cougars at -32.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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I am expecting Houston to be near 50 points in this contest. They should have no problems moving against a team that does not get pressure on the quarterback and does not create turnovers. Not only can the big offensive line of Houston open holes for that outstanding ground game, but I expect Tune to quite possibly have his best game of the season.

I do not expect UConn to score more than 10 points in this game. That puts it all on the Cougars to come up with the remaining part, which I believe they easily get in this game.

Take Houston to win, 49-10.

Prediction: Over 55.5 (-110)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.