Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1)
The top two teams in the Big 12 square off looking to secure the conference championship when the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Oklahoma rebounded nicely after losing their first game of the season, beating Iowa State last Saturday, 28-21. The Sooners are 4-2 ATS in their last six games. Oklahoma State won their fourth straight game when they defeated Texas Tech last Saturday, 23-0. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games.
Oklahoma State enters as the favorite at -4.0. The Sooners have won the last six meetings between these teams and Oklahoma State has not defeated Oklahoma since winning in overtime in December 2014, 38-35.
Sooners Hold Off Cyclones for 10th WinIowa State twice pulled within seven points in the fourth quarter but could get no closer as they fell to Oklahoma, 28-21. Two huge first-half plays helped propel the Sooners to victory. That included a 74-yard touchdown run by Caleb Williams in the first quarter and a 42-yard fumble return for a score by Jalen Redmond in the second. Kennedy Brooks rushed for 115 yards for the Sooners.
Oklahoma State is 10th in the nation in points per game at 38.9 and they are 31st in yards per game at 442.2. Williams is a dual-threat for the Sooners, completing 65.5% of his passes for 1418 yards and 15 touchdowns. He has also carried the ball 53 times for 372 yards and six more scores.
Brooks has been a load to stop for Oklahoma. The running back has 972 yards rushing and 10 TDs, averaging an impressive 6.0 yards per carry. Marvin Mims is the big-play receiver, making 29 catches for a team-leading 644 yards and 4 touchdowns.
The Sooners are allowing 24.2 points per game, 52nd overall. Oklahoma has 29 sacks, eight interceptions, and 12 fumble recoveries. This is a team that moves well to the ball, allowing 122.5 yards rushing per game. Isaiah Thomas leads the team with eight sacks and Nik Bonitto has 6.0. With Perrion Winfrey (5.5 sacks) in the mix, the trio can be a very disruptive force.
Cowboys Shut Down Texas TechOklahoma State held Texas Tech to just 10 first downs and 108 yards of total offense in a 23-0 victory. The Cowboys' defense recorded six sacks, led by Brock Martin with 1.5. The offense was not impressive but got the job done as Spencer Sanders threw for 239 yards and a score. He also rushed for 48 yards and a TD.
Oklahoma State is 47th in the nation in points per game at 31.4 and they are 60th in yards per game at 413.7. The Cowboys' offense is led by Jaylen Warren, who is having an outstanding season, rushing for 1078 yards and 10 touchdowns. He does the grunt work to keep the chains moving.
Sanders is a dual-threat as well, rushing for 417 yards and five TDs while completing 60.0% of his passes for 1997 yards and 15 more scores. His primary target has been Tay Martin, who has 54 catches for 765 yards.
The Cowboys are allowing 14.9 points per game, second in the nation. That includes holding opponents to three points or fewer in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State has a whopping 43 sacks, eight interceptions and six fumble recoveries. What is impressive is that no one has a huge number of sacks, as Collin Oliver leads the team with 7.5 sacks. Martin has 6.0.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Could this be the year that Oklahoma State snaps their six-game losing streak to Oklahoma? That is what oddsmakers believe and they are right. There is no denying that these teams are good on both sides of the ball, but the Cowboys are a dominating defense. One needs to keep in mind that they are playing a pretty good conference, yet rank second in the country in points allowed per game. In fact, this team is allowing just 84.9 yards rushing per game and 266.9 yards of total offense per contest.
Now, one can say that those numbers are lower because they have not faced the Sooners yet, and that would be a correct assessment. Oklahoma is not going to be held to under 300 yards, but they are not going to light it up either. Williams is going to be facing a defense that can come at him from anywhere on the field, and he has simply not faced a group like this. I look for Williams to throw two costly picks that turn this game around and give the Cowboys the victory.
Full-Game Total Pick
I will say upfront that I am not going much over here. These are two very good offenses, but both teams also have very good defenses. It is the ability of both groups to get after the quarterback that is going to be the story of the game. Each has a trio of players that disrupt plays, but the Cowboys can bring pressure from any one of their 11 players and get results.
The Sooners have gone under in six of their last seven games in November while the Cowboys have gone under in seven of their last nine in November.