Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#203 Oregon State vs.
#204 Oregon
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 3:30pm EST
Written by Eric P.

The Oregon Ducks play host to the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday night from Autzen Stadium in one of the best rivalry games in the PAC 12. The Beavers come in having won two straight and at 7-4, have a great shot a respectable bowl game if they can pull off the upset. For the Ducks, a shocking defeat to Utah last weekend watched them fall completely out of the College Football Playoff hunt. Oregon has dominated the series over the last ten years, winning eight of ten, but Oregon State was victorious last season. The Ducks have quite a bit to bounce back from in this one no matter how one looks at it and it should end up being one of the more exciting games of the weekend.

Beavers Eyeing Rivalry Win

Oregon State was victorious last season at home but going on the road will present a world of new troubles this season. Back-to-back wins over Arizona State and Stanford, both with relative ease, should excite the fan base heading into the ultimate contest of the season. Despite those wins, losses to PAC 12 bottom dwellers Colorado and California can't be forgotten and consistency continues to be an issue. Only winning twice in the last ten matchups and the talent gap provide problems too but the Beavers have a way of showing up for big games over the last few years, and Saturday provides that opportunity yet again.

The Beavers have eight players n this week's injury report, with four of those already ruled out for the weekend. The offensive line comes in with three questionable players and Deshaun Fenwick is doubtful as the team's second-leading rusher.

The Beavers pride themselves on their ground game, which ranks sixth nationally in rush yards per game, but the injuries could see that take a hit. The good news is that leading rusher, BJ Baylor (109 yards/game) will be available and assuming one or two of the questionable lineman can go, the Beavers will be able to not miss a beat on the ground. If they have to go to the air, that might be a different story, though Chance Nolan has 17 touchdowns compared to just eight interceptions.

Defensively, the Beavers have steadily improved, finding themselves ranked 56th in scoring defense, allowing just a hair below 25 points per game. One issue is their inability to get after the quarterback though. They only rank 110th in sacks per game but the secondary has been holding it down under heavy pressure. They rank 18th in interceptions per game and just a slightly improved pass rush could see them take a massive step forward.

Ducks Looking To Bounce Back

In what started as a magical win at Ohio State, has turned into a defeated mindset for many within the Oregon program. Last week's loss not only took them out of playoff contention without a doubt but might have put a dent in their belief to take the PAC 12 title if they end up seeing Utah yet again. For this week though, their focus shifts to the Beavers, who if nothing else, the Ducks will want to win to avoid a second straight loss in the rivalry. The Ducks have a top 50 offense and defense but the question remains who will step up and avoid last week's disaster from creeping into this weekend.

Unfortunately, the Ducks have some of their own injuries to worry about heading into the weekend. On the latest injury report, they have 16 players appearing on this week's injury report. 13 of those are ruled out for the weekend's tilt already, while two members of the secondary are questionable.

Oregon's offense started the season with a jolt but as PAC 12 play has worn on, they've had a harder and harder time finding success. They rank 38th nationally in scoring, without much balance. Anthony Brown has been solid but unspectacular at quarterback, but at least has the tools to make life tough for the Beavers. Travis Dye is the leader at running back and could be the one to change this game and break it open. He averages 85 yards per game on the ground and if the Ducks can control the flow of the game, it could spell redemption.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Oregon is coming off of a deflating loss to Utah last week and even though they'll be coming back home, Oregon State has all the momentum in this one. They won last year's battle and have won their last two games overall. Most of all, they have a ground game that the Ducks haven't seen this season, which they can use to control the tempo and flow of the game. Most importantly, they'll be able to keep Oregon's offense off the field. Additionally, according to covers.com, Oregon State is 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a winning team and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. For Oregon, they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. Additionally, Oregon State is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Eugene and the road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings.

Prediction: Oregon State (+6.5)

Full-Game Total Pick

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While Oregon’s offense has been known as a fast pace and high tempo one historically, this season is a little out of the norm. Now with a heavy emphasis on the ground game, the Ducks find themselves just middle of the ground in terms of scoring and moving the ball. For the Beavers, their insistence on running the ball will keep the clock moving and keep Oregon’s explosiveness off the field. Expect a low scoring affair in the rivalry in a game that will be a battle of the run games and defenses for much of it.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Eric Ploch , "Eric P."

Eric grew up surrounded by sports, whether it was spending the weekend catching games in person or on tv, or heading out to the fields to play whatever sport was in season. What started as a hobby, soon became a passion, as he became the sports editor of his high school newspaper, then wrote for his university newspaper during his undergrad years. After obtaining a degree in Sports Operations and Promotions, and spending 8 years deeply immersed in the sports world, Eric decided to take his love for analytics and predictions, and his experience, to online sports fans everywhere. James is now an integral part of our team here at StatSalt and has also been a very successful sports bettor over the years. Be sure and follow him daily.