Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#181 Texas Tech vs.
#182 Baylor
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 12:00pm EST
Written by Chris King

It’s a battle of Big 12 teams from the Lone Star State on the gridiron. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are on the road as they travel to face the #8 Baylor Bears Saturday afternoon. Texas Tech comes in off a 23-0 blanking at home at the hands of #9 Oklahoma State in their previous contest last Saturday. Baylor knocked off Kansas State 20-10 on the road in their most recent game last Saturday. In the all-time series between the teams, Texas Tech owns a 39-37-1 advantage, including a 24-23 home win in the most recent matchup on November 24, 2020.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Look to Beat Baylor for Second Straight Year

Texas Tech struggled to generate much in the way of offense in their game last week against #9 Oklahoma State last week and that sent them to defeat. The Red Raiders dropped to 6-5 on the year and 3-5 in the Big 12 on the season. Against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech failed to generate any points and barely cracked the century mark in total offense. The Red Raiders were outgained 427-108 in total offense, gave up 27 first downs while picking up 10 and were dominated in time of possession by a 36:58 to 23:02 margin. Texas Tech committed the game’s lone turnover and never got past the Oklahoma State 37-yard line in the game.

The Red Raiders enter this contest 44th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 256.3 yards per game while they are 75th in rushing offense by grinding out 154 yards per game on the ground. Texas Tech is 53rd in the FBS in scoring offense by averaging 30.5 points per contest while they are a dismal 106th in scoring defense by allowing 32.5 points per game. Tyler Shough has completed 64 of 92 passes for 872 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions on the year. Henry Colombi is 95 of 148 for 1,291 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions while adding 38 yards plus two scores on the ground. Donovan Smith is 55 of 88 for 667 yards with four touchdowns and two picks while running for 129 yards and two scores. Tahj Brooks is second on the team in rushing with 57 carries for 421 yards plus five touchdowns. Xavier White (60 carries, 283 yards, three TD) and SaRodorick Thompson (93 carries, 431 yards, nine TD) are also solid backs in the system. In the passing game, Erik Ezukanma leads the team with 46 receptions for 691 yards and four scores. Myles Price (33 grabs, 434 yards, two TD) and Kaylon Geiger (39 catches, 497 yards, TD) are next in line. Jonathan Garibay has hit 42 of 43 extra point attempts and 12 of 12 field goal tries with a long of 62 on the season.

Baylor Bears Try to Stay in Big 12 Title Game Hunt

Baylor won their second straight and fifth in the last six games as they knocked off Kansas State on the road in their most recent contest. The Bears come in 9-2 on the season and 6-2 in the Big 12, one game behind Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, who meet in Bedlam this weekend. Against Kansas State, Baylor led 14-0 early in the second quarter and 17-7 at the half. The Bears didn’t let the Wildcats get closer than seven the rest of the way en route to the victory. Baylor rolled up a 387-263 edge in total offense, picked up 22 first downs while allowing 12 and owned a 35:54 to 24:06 margin. The Bears forced two turnovers while committing one in the contest.

For the year, Baylor is 80th in the nation in passing offense as they average 218.3 yards per game through the air. The Bears stand 10th in rushing offense of the 130 FBS teams to take the field this year with an average of 228.7 yards per game. Baylor is 26th in the FBS in scoring offense with 34 points per game while the team stands 16th in scoring defense as they allow 19 points per contest. Gerry Bohanon has completed 166 of 258 passes for 2,160 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. He adds 301 rushing yards plus nine scores. Blake Shapen is 19 of 24 for 162 yards this season. The ground game has been solid for second-year coach Dave Aranda. Abram Smith leads the team with 185 carries for 1,249 yards and 11 scores this season. Trestan Ebner (126 carries, 709 yards, two TD) and Taye McWilliams (17 carries, 181 yards, two TD) have also been effective in the run game. Tyquan Thornton leads the team with 51 receptions for 838 yards and eight scores on the season. R.J. Sneed (41 grabs, 546 yards, two TD), Drew Estrada (18 receptions, 278 yards) and Ben Sims (25 receptions, 313 yards, four TD) have gone over the 250-yard mark in receiving yards. Isaiah Hankins has hit all 48 extra-point attempts and 12 of 15 field-goal attempts with a long of 48 on the season.

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Texas Tech has struggled of late and is 1-2 under Sonny Cumbie, who the program announced would be kept on board as the head coach after taking over on an interim basis after Matt Wells was fired. The Red Raiders are down to their third-string quarterback and that’s not good news when you’re facing a Baylor team with plenty of motivation to pick up a victory here. Baylor has played solid football with five wins in their last six games and they know that if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and they win here, the Bears would play in the Big 12 title game. Look for Baylor to pick up the win at home here to stay hot.

Prediction: Baylor Bears -14

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Texas Tech has seen the under hit in six of their 11 games on the year. The Red Raiders had posted back-to-back overs before getting blanked last week to stay short of the number. Baylor has seen the over go 6-5 in their games on the year though they have stayed under the number in two straight games and three of their previous four contests. The Red Raiders are deep in the depth chart under center and that proves problematic against a good Baylor defense. Baylor doesn’t give up a ton of points normally and facing a struggling Texas Tech team works in keeping the number down. Look for this one to fall short of the total.

Prediction: Under 51.5

Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.