Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#153 Troy vs.
#154 Georgia State
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 2:00pm EST
Written by The Admiral

Troy Trojans (5-6) vs. Georgia State Panthers (6-5)

Two teams looking to solidify a bowl position square off when the Troy Trojans take on the Georgia State Panthers. Georgia State has already locked themselves into bowl position, thanks to a 28-20 victory over Arkansas State last Saturday. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10. Troy finds themselves in a desperate situation after losing to Appalachian State last Saturday, 45-7, their second straight loss. They must win this game to become bowl eligible. The Trojans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10.

George Southern is favored by 6.5-points. The Panthers have won the last two games between these teams, including a 36-34 victory in October 2020. However, Troy is 4-3 in the last seven meetings.

Appalachian State Crush Trojans

Troy held a 7-3 lead coming out of the first quarter, but Appalachian State responded with 42 unanswered points on their way to a 45-7 victory. Appalachian State blew this game open with 21 points in the third quarter and 14 in the fourth. Gunnar Watson had a tough day, throwing for just 109 yards and a score. The Trojans produced just six first downs.

Troy is averaging 24.0 points per game, 100th in the country, and they are 108th in yards per game at 337.0. Troy will use two quarterbacks at times, with Watson getting the bulk of the work. He has completed 62.6% of his passes for 1326 yards and eight TDs. Taylor Powell will also see time, as he completed 66.1% of his passes for 1251 yards and seven TDs. The difference is that Powell has thrown six interceptions to just two for Watson.

Kimani Vidal has rushed for 681 yards and five scores, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The leading receiver by far is Tez Johnson, with 63 catches for 679 yards and four TDs. That is 33 more receptions than the next highest number on the team.

Ground Game Leads Panthers to Victory

Georgia State rushed for 282 yards to help lead them to a 28-20 victory over Arkansas State. The Panthers got 125 yards and two scores from Jamyest Williams and Tucker Gregg added 98 yards and a score as all four touchdowns came on the ground. Arkansas State had no success running the ball, finishing with -3 yards.

Georgia State is 92nd in the country in points per game at 25.3 and they are 82nd in yards per game at 383.1. The Panthers are led by a prolific ground attack featuring Gregg, who has rushed for 816 yards and nine touchdowns. The running back is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Williams is second on the team with 702 yards and eight scores and is averaging 6.7 yards per carry.

The numbers for Grainger are solid but not spectacular, completing 58.8% of his passes for 1372 yards and 14 touchdowns. His leading receiver has been Jamari Thrash, with 29 catches for 429 yards and three TDs. Seven players on this team have double-digit catches.

The Panthers are allowing 29.3 points per game, 89th overall. Georgia State has recorded 29 sacks, eight interceptions, and eight fumble recoveries. The duo of Jordan Veneziale and Blake Carroll has been fantastic. Carroll is the team leader in sacks with 4.5, and is second with 78 tackles. He also has an interception and a forced fumble. Veneziale leads the team with 85 tackles and is second with four sacks. He has a fumble recovery.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Clearly, Troy enters this contest with much more incentive. If they are going to be bowl eligible, they must win the sixth game. However, that does not look good for them. The Trojans have lost three of their last four games and are simply not getting the kind of production that they need from this offense to win games.

Plus, the Trojans defense has not been up to the task of slowing down the opposing teamโ€™s running games. The Trojans are allowing 133.5 yards per game, and that is going to be a key, as the combination of Williams and Gregg are very difficult to slow down.

Troy is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and are 3-8 in their last 11 against teams with a winning record. Georgia State is 5-1 ATS in their last six and are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.

Prediction: Take the Georgia State Panthers at -6.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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These teams are allowing a combined average of nearly 55 points per game, but it is the offenses that are the key for this total. Neither of these teams is performing particularly well, and both teams prefer to stay to the ground to lead them to victory. That means the clock is running a lot, so one should expect a lower scoring game just because there is less time available.

These teams have gone under in four of the last six meetings. Troy has gone under in nine of their last 12 games on the road while the Panthers have gone under in four of their last five games.

Take Georgia State to win, 28-17.

Prediction: under 50.5 (-114)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.