Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#189 UTSA vs.
#190 North Texas
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 2:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

The No. 22-ranked UTSA Roadrunners will travel to Apogee Stadium in Denton, Texas for a Conference USA showdown versus the North Texas Mean Green on Saturday afternoon.

The Roadrunners are trying to put the cap on a perfect 12-0 regular season after avoiding an upset at home versus UAB last week. UTSA has won all seven of its C-USA contests and comes in with an 11-0 record so far this season. Meanwhile, North Texas has been one of the hottest teams in the conference heading into this game. The Mean Green have won their last four matchups and are fresh off of a resounding blowout win on the road at FIU. North Texas enters with a 5-6 overall record, including a 4-3 record versus C-USA competition, but will need another win to earn an invitation to a bowl game.

Can North Texas pull off the upset against the No. 22-ranked Roadrunners on Saturday afternoon?

Roadrunners take down UAB to keep undefeated season alive

UTSA knocked off UAB 34-31 in a last-second win last week to keep its undefeated season alive. Quarterback Frank Harris completed 25-of-36 passes for 323 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while running back Sincere McCormick rushed for 65 yards and a score in the win. Despite trailing for most of the afternoon, Harris kept the Roadrunners in the game and capped off a seven-play 77-yard touchdown drive with a one-yard touchdown pass with just three seconds remaining to give UTSA the win.

Harris has been a revelation for the Roadrunners this season. The 6-foot senior has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 2,629 yards with 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Meanwhile, McCormick leads the team in rushing with 1,215 yards and 12 scores on the ground so far this year.

On defense, UTSA has allowed 20.1 points per game, which is tied for 22nd in the nation. The Roadrunners have also surrendered 336.8 yards of total offense per contest, 29th in the country, including 101.7 rushing yards per game, good for 10th in the FBS.

North Texas hoping to finish season strong vs. undefeated UTSA

North Texas throttled FIU 49-7 last week for its fourth consecutive win. Quarterback Austin Aune completed 6-of-12 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns while DeAndre Toney rushed for 109 yards and two scores in the blowout win. North Texas had no shortage of big plays, scoring four touchdowns of 28-yards or more on the day.

After a dismal start to the season, the Mean Green find themselves one win away from bowl game eligibility. The only problem is that there is only one game remaining on the regular-season schedule and the lone team standing in their path is a perfect 11-0, including 7-0 in C-USA play. Aune will try to lead the Mean Green to an upset after playing well under center over the last few weeks. The 6-foot-2 junior has completed only 51.2 percent of his passes for 1,647 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions so far this season. However, he’s thrown three touchdowns and no picks over the last two weeks.

On defense, the Mean Green have given up 27.9 points per game, 82nd in the nation. North Texas has also surrendered 379.3 yards of total offense per contest, which ranks 72nd in the country, including 143 rushing yards per game, 55th in the FBS.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Following last week’s emotional win, UTSA will face another tough challenge in its season finale on Saturday. The Roadrunners have been stumbling down the stretch of the C-USA campaign. UTSA has squeaked out narrow wins in each of the last two weeks and will be up against a team that is riding a four-game winning streak. North Texas also needs just one game to become bowl eligible, so don’t expect the Mean Green to just lay down in this game. Take North Texas to cover the spread at home in their regular-season finale on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: North Texas Mean Green +10.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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With these two teams projected for 59.5 points, there should be some value on the over in this spot. North Texas’ offense was explosive in last week’s win versus FIU, scoring four touchdowns of 28 yards or more. While the Roadrunners have squeaked by with narrow wins in recent weeks, the defense remains one of the top units in the country. UTSA ranks in the top-30 in the country in scoring defense, total defense, and rushing defense heading into this contest. Take this matchup to stay under the projected total on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Under 59.5
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He has been a very successful sports bettor over the years and has now brought his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.