Michigan (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) travels to Columbus to take on No. 2 CFP Ohio State (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) in one of the nation's biggest football rivalries entitled "The Game" from Ohio Stadium at 12pmET at 12pmET. The weather forecast predicts temperatures to be in the 20s.
The Wolverines have taken three straight in this series, including last year's 30-24 win at home. Can Ryan Day get over the hump and win this Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction?
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Michigan doesn't overlook Northwestern
Some handicapping principles will tell you to never pick a team that has their biggest rival coming up in the next game. That was certainly the case when Michigan faced Northwestern last Saturday with rival Ohio State looming. With four losses, Michigan had no chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoffs. They were just trying to make a bowl game. Not only did the Wolverines become bowl-eligible, they made a statement with a 50-6 win over Northwestern from Michigan Stadium. The fact that they beat the Wildcats or allowed just six points, wasn't a huge shock. But putting up 50 points when they had failed to score 30 or more points since the opener when they beat Fresno State 30-10. QB Davis Warren was efficient with 195 yards passing (26 of 35), a TD and a pick. The Wolverines also rushed for 201 yards and amassed 396 total yards. The defense picked off Jack Lausch twice and forced backup QB Ryan Hillinski into committing a penalty in the end zone for intentional grounding, which resulted in a safety.
"I would say so, for sure," head coach Sherrone Moore said on Freep.com. "Point totals would say so and the stats on defense: we had eight tackles for loss, six sacks and 25 guys had tackles. On offense putting up 50 points and being over 200 yards rushing, almost 200 yards passing, so I'd say complete, for sure."
Despite the dominant win, there are still questions about this Michigan offense that put up just 15 points in a 20-15 loss at Indiana on Nov. 9 and 17 points in a 38-17 defeat at home against Oregon. Their defense has allowed them to be competitive in most games, except for the Ducks' matchup.
Warren has been solid but unspectacular taking over at quarterback, completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,064 yards with six TDs and seven picks. The running game has carried the offense with Kalel Mullings leading the way with 832 yards (5.4ypc) and 11 TDs. DE Josiah Stewart leads Michigan with 8.5 sacks.
The defense is giving up just 316.3 yards per game and 94 yards on the ground (4th). However, they can be thrown on, allowing 222.3 yards in the air. On offense, they are averaging just 140.1 passing yards and 159.6 rushing yards to rank 128th in total yards per game and 107th in points per game with 23.1. They also rank 97tin in turnover margin at -0.4.
The biggest key injuries to watch are star tight end Colston Loveland (undisclosed) and DB Will Johnson (toe), who are questionable for this game. Loveland set a record for catches by a tight end with 56 before getting injured against Northwestern.
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Ohio State and Ryan Day need this victory
When it comes to winning, few college football programs do as well as Ohio State. When it comes to beating Michigan, head coach Ryan Day tends to fall short. He's just 1-3 against the Wolverines, having lost three straight. His Buckeyes have just one loss on the schedule and it came on Oct. 12 at Oregon (32-31). In previous seasons, that would make this game a must-win, but in the 12-game playoff, OSU could probably lose to Michigan, but that wouldn't make that less devastating.
Since losing to the Ducks, the Buckeyes edged Nebraska (21-17), beat Penn State on the road (20-13), annihilated Purdue (45-0) and Northwestern (31-7). Last week, OSU took care of Indiana at home 38-15 as a 10.5-point favorite to show that despite the standings, where Penn State and the Hoosiers are 7-1 along with Ohio State, there's no doubt who the No. 2 team is.
The offense wasn't great against Indiana, but they didn't have to be. QB Will Howard completed 22 of 26 for 201 yards with a TD and a pick. Special teams helped as James Evans had a 79-yard punt return for a TD early in the third quarter to make it a 21-7 lead for the Buckeyes. The defense was phenomenal as they held IU QB Kurtis Rourke to 8-of-18 for 68 yards.
Howard, the former K-State signal-caller, is completing 74% of his passes for 2,685 yards with 26 TDs and six picks. He also has seven rushing scores. Jeremiah Smith is his top target with 52 catches for 899 yards and nine TDs. OSU has two backs with over 700 yards rushing in Quinshon Judkins (759, 8TDs) and Treveyon Henderson (730 yds, 6 TDs).
The Buckeyes rank first in the nation in yards allowed per game (241.7ypg), fourth against the pass (151.7ypg), third against the run (90ypg) and first in scoring defense (10.7ppg). On offense, they average 439.1 years per game, 177.5 rushing yards and 261.5 passing yards. They also rank 32nd in turnover ratio at +0.5.
Key injuries: OL Zen Michalski (lower body) is questionable
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Best Bets for Michigan vs. Ohio State
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Until Ohio State makes a statement with a win, I'm not giving three touchdowns. They don't have to make a statement against the Wolverines. They just need a win Yes, Jim Harbaugh is gone, but that doesn't mean that the Wolverines won't make Will Howard throw some questionable passes because they certainly have the pass rush. They rank 16th in sacks per game with 2.8 and 27th in sack percentage. This will be closer game than most people think.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
I can't look at the previous games that these teams played and think that this game is going to be in the 50's or 60's combined as it was the last two seasons. These teams had more explosive players like Marvin Harrison Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum. I'm a bit scared of Howard putting up big numbers against a very strong defense. The Buckeyes have gone under in four of their last five games. Michigan has not allowed over 24 points on the road except at Washington and they struggled at home against an Oregon team that is the most explosive in the nation.
