Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#135 Illinois 44.5 vs.
#136 Michigan State -14.5
Saturday, November 9, 2019 at 3:30pm EST
Written by David Hess



#135 University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign
#136 Michigan State University


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Saturday afternoon on the college gridiron and we will see a pair of teams from the Big 10 square off as the Illinois Fighting Illini grapple with the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. These teams last met back in 2016 and the Illini won that game at home by a score of 31-27. Illinois is 5-4 overall, including 3-3 in league play, while Sparty is 4-4 overall and 2-3 within the Big 10.

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Illinois Looks For 4th Win In A Row

The Illinois Fighting Illini had a rough start to their year as they went just 2-4 through their first six games, but then they upset Wisconsin at home and followed that up with two more wins. Illinois will now be looking for their 4th win in a row and at the same time secure bowl eligibility. That would be quite a feat for a team that had won a total of nine games in the last three years. It has taken some time but Lovie Smith is turning the program around but can they keep it going in this one against a Michigan State team that is normally tough at home? Keep reading to find out. The defense has steep up of late as the Illini have allowed just 13 ppg after giving up at least 40 points in each of their three conference games. They hope to keep it rolling on that side of the ball and will be facing a Michigan State squad that is 110th in the nation in scoring, putting up just 21.8 ppg.

The offense for the Illini has been better of late as they have averaged 28.6 ppg over their last three games but this will not be an easy task for them as the Spartans have a top-notch defense. Michigan State is 21st in yards allowed and 33rd against the pass while the Illini are 114th in total offense and 115th in passing. They are a mediocre 69th in rushing, but Sparty is 25th against the run. Brandon Peters calls the shots behind center and he threw for just 120 yards with a TD and NO INTs against a bad Rutgers' defense last week. Reggie Corbin will be looked upon to have a solid game as he leads the team in rushing with 577 yards, but it is not easy to crack the Michigan State run defense. He had 51 yards last week as a part of Illinois' 204 yards rushing game against the Scarlet Knights. They will not get 204 yards in this one. The win streak that Illinois is on is their longest since 2011.

Sparty Looks To End Three-Game Slide

The Michigan State Spartans were expected to have a solid season this year and even contend for the Big 10 Title. Well, that has not happened and they come in having lost their last three games in a row to fall to 4-4 overall, including 2-3 within the Big 10. I did an article on the Northwestern/ Purdue game and that Wildcat offense has been pathetic of late, having scored just six points in their last three games. The Michigan State offense hasn't been as bad but it hasn't been far off as they have notched a total of 17 points during their three-game slide. Now, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the fact that the three defenses they faced were Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State, who all have been strong on that side of the ball. Still, they will be facing a defense that has been hot of late. Sparty is 108th in total offense, 64th in passing, 118th in rushing and 110th in scoring, putting up just 21.8 ppg.

They will be facing an Illini defense that has allowed just 13.0 ppg and 321.3 ypg over their last three games. In their last game, Sparty lost 28-7 to Penn State and they had just 269 yards of total offense in the game. Brian Lewerke threw for just 165 yards and an INT with no TDs in the contest He has not been very good this year, hitting just 56.1% of his passes for 1761 yards with 11 TDs and four INTs. The Spartans need so much more from him especially since their ground game is so bad. Elijah Collins leads their ground game with 545 yards while Lewerke is 2nd with 169. A better run game would help this offense immensely and they will be facing the 96th ranked run defense in the nation.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


I will be going with the Spartans in this game, despite the fact that they have been struggling of late. The Illini have been playing better, but still, the Spartans have a massive edge on defense and Michigan State is 9-2 ATS the last 11 games in this series. The Spartans have lost their last three games in a row, but those three losses were against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State and Illinois are not in that same class. the Illini did surprise Wisconsin but that game was at home and in their lone road game against a good team (Minnesota), they were crushed by 23 points. The Spartans are still a good team and they will get back on track with a 17 point win in this one.

Prediction: Michigan State -14.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The Illinois defense has been hot of late as they have allowed just 13 ppg over their last three games while Michigan State has scored a total of 17 points over their last three games. I do not see the Spartans being held in check here as they have averaged 26.6 ppg at home, but Michigan State will not go crazy. The Spartans have one of the better defenses around and the Illini are not a very good offensive team. Sparty has allowed just 18.6 ppg here at home on just 262.6 ypg and it will be their defense that leads them back to victory here while also keeping the game under the total. The Under is 29-10 in Fighting Illini last 39 games on grass and 11-1 in Spartans last 12 games following a straight-up loss of more than 20 points. I will call it Michigan state 27-10.

Prediction: Under 45

Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.