Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#183 Kansas State 58.5 vs.
#184 Texas -7
Saturday, November 9, 2019 at 3:30pm EST
Written by Chris Kubala



#183 Kansas State University
#184 University of Texas


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It’s a big matchup in the Big 12 when a pair of teams tied for third place in the conference take the field in the Lone Star State. The #20 Kansas State Wildcats are on the road as they travel to face the Texas Longhorns Saturday afternoon. Kansas State comes in off a 38-10 road drubbing of Kansas last Saturday in their previous contest. Texas was dumped 37-27 on the road by TCU in their previous game on October 26: they had a bye last week. The Wildcats own a 10-9 advantage in the all-time series between the programs but the Longhorns have taken the last two matchups: that includes a 19-14 home win in the most recent meeting on September 29, 2018.

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Kansas State Wildcats Seek Fourth Straight Victory

Kansas State took care of business against in-state rival Kansas to win the Governor’s Cup for the 11th straight time. The Wildcats improved to 3-2 in conference play and seek a fourth straight victory in this contest. Kansas State led 7-3 after the opening quarter before taking complete control by reeling off 31 unanswered points and keeping Kansas out of the end zone until the final minute of the contest. The Wildcats owned a nearly two to one ratio in total offense, outgaining the Jayhawks 471-241, picking up 23 first downs while allowing 12 and dominated time of possession 38:03 to 21:57 in the contest. Kansas State forced two turnovers while not committing one in the contest.

The Wildcats entered this contest 113th in the nation in passing offense with 171.6 yards per contest while the team is 23rd in rushing offense with 217.3 yards per game. Kansas State is 39th in the FBS in scoring offense by putting up 33.4 points per contest while the team is 26th in scoring defense as they allow 20.4 points per game on the year. Skylar Thompson is 107 of 177 passing for 1,336 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception: he adds 331 yards and 10 scores on the ground this season. Nick Ast is three of three for 28 yards while John Holcombe II is one of three for nine yards while adding 71 rushing yards. James Gilbert leads the team with 100 carries for 558 yards and five scores this season. Jordon Brown (39 carries, 237 yards, three TD) and Harry Trotter (58 carries, 235 yards, three TD) are solid secondary options. Dalton Schoen leads the team with 25 receptions for 389 yards and three touchdowns on the season. Phillip Brooks (17 grabs, 126 yards) and Malik Knowles (16 catches, 231 yards, two TD) are the only other players with double-digit receptions this season. Blake Lynch has hit all 33 extra-point attempts and 10 of 11 field goal tries with a long of 46 this season.

Texas Longhorns Hope Bye Week Helps Them Get Re-centered

Texas comes in off a bye week last week having dropped two of their three previous games. The Longhorns hope that they can bounce back after their loss to TCU by rebounding at home and earning their first win over a ranked team in three tries this season. Texas led 17-13 at the half and 20-13 midway through the third quarter before giving up 17 unanswered points to trail by 10. The Longhorns were unable to get closer than three the rest of the way. Texas owned a 447-435 edge in total offense but lost the first down battle (22-21), the time of possession (32:41 to 27:19) and the turnover battle as they committed four turnovers while forcing just two. The Horned Frogs turned the takeaways into 13 points.

The Longhorns enter this contest 14th in the nation in passing offense as they average 308.8 yards per game through the air this season while the team is 65th in rushing with 167.9 yards per contest. Texas is 11th in the FBS in scoring offense by putting up 39.1 points per game on the year while the team ranks just 99th in scoring defense by allowing 31.5 points per contest. Sam Ehlinger is 199 of 303 passing for 2,378 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions while ranking third on the team with 361 yards plus five scores on the ground. Casey Thompson is eight of 12 for 84 yards on the season. Keaontay Ingram leads the Longhorns on the ground with 98 carries for 494 yards plus four scores on the season. Roschon Johnson is next in line with 79 carries for 418 yards plus four rushing touchdowns. Devin Duvernay leads the team with 69 receptions for 800 yards and seven scores on the year. Collin Johnson (28 catches, 387 yards, TD), Brennan Eagles (19 receptions, 367 yards, five TD) and Jake Smith (20 grabs, 207 yards, five TD) are solid secondary targets. Cameron Dicker has hit all 39 extra-point attempts and 10 of 13 field goal tries this season.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Texas started strong this season but losses to Oklahoma and TCU sandwiched around a narrow two-point road win over Kansas has given the team cause for concern. This isn’t what Tom Herman expected from his program this season. Kansas State has gotten back on track with three straight wins after back to back defeats to start conference play. The Wildcats beat TCU and rolled Kansas while Texas struggled to edge Kansas by two and lost to TCU. Most importantly, Kansas State owns a win over Oklahoma while Texas was beaten in the Red River Shootout. Give the Wildcats the upper hand in this contest, even on the road, as they make it four straight wins.

Prediction: Kansas State Wildcats +7

Full-Game Total Pick

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We've seen that both teams can hang some hefty point totals at times this season. Kansas State has put up at least 31 points in five of their eight games this season while exceeding the 40-point mark three times. Texas has hung at least 27 points in every game this season and has put up at least 36 points in six of their eight games. The Longhorns own a 169-137 scoring margin in their four home games this season. Kansas State has outscored their opponents 82-60 on the road this year. Are we looking at another high-scoring shootout in this one?

The over is 4-1 in the Wildcats' last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 38-17 in their last 55 games in the month of November. Texas has seen the over go 5-1 in their last six on fieldturf, 4-1 in their last five coming off a bye, 4-1 in their last five after a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. This one seems poised to be a barnburner with plenty of offensive fireworks: look for the over to hit in this contest.

Prediction: Over 58

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.